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Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Weekly Status Report: Contents
Typical Client Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees. Click here for more performance data. Click here for information on managed accounts. Market Stance: BEARISH (since June 25, 2010) Last week, the market rallied strongly, with the S&P up +5.5%. Deen Capital accounts also posted sharp gains, at +3.6%. We underperformed because I am still bearish, still holding a conservative portfolio. I don't trust this rally. The week before last was a major down week, and last week was its mirror image. Volume was very heavy going down, and lighter on the rebound. Generally speaking, lighter volume days should be ignored when assessing the market's direction. Also, my indicators remain 2-out-of-3 bearish. All this suggests that the bear market, which began in late April, is not yet over. We are now 85% in SPY (the S&P 500), and 15% in cash. I will at least consider raising that cash level on Monday, as I suspect we may be at or near a minor top. But even without raising cash, this 85% SPY / 15% cash portfolio is consistent with my bearish stance. With this portfolio, we are guaranteed to outperform if the market goes down (and to underperform if it goes up). Year-to-date, the scorecard now reads: Deen Capital +2.8%, S&P -2.4%. My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
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NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10r): BEARISH BEARISH (1)
Last signal: BEARISH on Apr 27, 2010
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: -5.7 BEARISH +2.5 BEARISH (2)
Market Internals: 23% BEARISH 44% BULLISH (3)
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Market's Overall Technical Rating: BEARISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 44:56 85:15
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ Composite. (2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator bullish. (3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish, bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up, down or sideways. -KD, Saturday, July 10, 2010
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions. Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions. This means that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
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