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Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market Stance: BEARISH (since April 27, 2010) Contents
Typical Client Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees. Click here for more performance data. Click here for information on managed accounts. Bought Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK)
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees. Today, Thursday, June 17, 2010, I bought DECK, for both client and my personal accounts. Deckers Outdoor Corp. designs, produces, and markets footwear and accessories for outdoor activities and everyday casual lifestyle use. They market their products under the brand names Teva, UGG, Simple, Ahnu, and TSUBO. This stock is a component of the IBD 100 and the IBD New America Indexes. ("IBD" = "Investor's Business Daily") Here's why I bought this stock: + Recent breakout: Last Friday, June 11, the stock was up 4.2% on double average volume. This was (barely) a breakout from a 7-week trading range to a new 2-year high. We are buying at a price just slightly above Friday's close (about 1.5% higher). + The heavy volume days lately have all been up days. + Excellent recent sales growth. Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +13%, +16%, +15%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended March 31, +16% to $155.9 million. + Mostly excellent recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:
Jun 09 vs Jun 08: $0.26 vs $0.39 Sep 09 vs Sep 08: $1.59 vs $1.97 Dec 09 vs Dec 08: $5.22 vs $4.05 Mar 10 vs Mar 09: $1.37 vs $0.93 + Strong and rising earnings-per-share estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2010 is $9.99, revised upward from $9.47 90 days ago (and up from 2009 actual earnings of $8.94); and the consensus estimate for 2011 is $11.12, revised upward from $10.54 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 15 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 23%, the stock is still, even after recent gains, attractively priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings-per-share at least 10c above estimates in each of the past seven quarters. Most recently, for the quarter ended March 31, they "beat the Street" by 46c. + The company's industry group ("Apparel - Shoes & Rel Mfg") is ranked #5 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally rising over recent weeks and months. + The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend. -KD, Thursday, June 17, 2010
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions. ** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
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