The Deen's ListTM
Our goal since Oct. 2005: Outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.7 #302 Wednesday, December 2, 2009 3:56PM EST

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BULLISH (since December 1, 2009)

Contents

Performance
Bought Cyberonics Inc. (CYBX)
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us

Performance

Deen Capital S&P 500
Year-to-date as of December 1, 2009 +20.5% * +25.6%
12 months (Dec 1, 2008 to Dec 1, 2009) +20.1% * +39.3%
24 months (Dec 1, 2007 to Dec 1, 2009) -11.4% * -21.5%
36 months (Dec 1, 2006 to Dec 1, 2009) +18.7% * -15.3%
48 months (Dec 1, 2005 to Dec 1, 2009) +36.2% * -4.8%

* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.

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Bought Cyberonics Inc. (CYBX)

Initial percent of portfolio (approx.)5.0%
Net buy price in managed accounts*$18.06
Most recent close (Dec 01)$18.12
Net change (based on net buy price)-0.06
Today's volume as of 3:53pm ET 174,382 ($3.1 million)
Average daily volume142,100 ($2.6 million)
This year's earnings-per-share$1.08 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share$0.98 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings18.4 (est)
Earnings growth rate, next 5 years30% per year (est)
Corporate HeadquartersHouston, TX
Web sitewww.cyberonics.com

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

Today, Wednesday, December 2, 2009, I bought CYBX, for both client and my personal accounts.

Cyberonics, Inc., makes implantable medical devices that provide vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) therapy for the treatment of refractory epilepsy and treatment-resistant depression.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ Recent breakout: Back on November 23, the stock jumped 7% on heavy volume. Since then, it has pulled back a bit. The stock is now sitting right at the breakout pivot point, around $18.

+ Technical: There have been five heavy volume days over the past two weeks (Nov 23 was one of them). All have been up days. I deduce that there probably are new buyers coming into this stock.

+ Excellent recent sales growth. Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +20%, +14%, +14%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Oct 31, +13% to $40.7 million.

+ Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Jan 08 vs Jan 07: 15c vs (4c)
Apr 09 vs Apr 08: 22c vs 11c
Jul 09 vs Jul 08: 23c vs  8c
Oct 09 vs Oct 08: 32c vs 14c

+ Valuation: At 18 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 29%, the stock is attractively priced.

+ History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings-per-share at least 4c above estimates in each of the past nine quarters. Most recently, for the quarter ended Oct 31, they "beat the Street" by 12c.

+ The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend.

I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factors:

- Weak and slightly falling earnings-per-share estimates for next year: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for FY 10 (ends Apr 30) is $1.08, revised upward from 86c 90 days ago (and up from FY 09 actual earnings of 58c); but the consensus estimate for FY 11 is 98c, lower than the FY 10 estimate, and revised downward from $1.01 90 days ago.

- The company's industry group ("Medical Products") is ranked #111 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally falling just slightly over recent weeks and months.

-KD, Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Open Positions

Model Portfolio

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
% of
Portfolio
Gain
(Loss)
Cyberonics Inc. CYBX 12/02/09 $18.06 $18.00 0.0 4.5% -0.3%
Lihua International, Inc. LIWA 12/02/09 $9.99 $11.03 0.0 5.4% +10.4%
China Green Agriculture Inc. CGA 12/01/09 $17.21 $17.95 0.1 5.1% +4.3%
China Yuchai Int'l CYD 12/01/09 $16.90 $16.40 0.1 4.7% -3.0%
SmartHeat Inc. HEAT 11/30/09 $13.03 $15.87 0.3 5.8% +21.8%
Telestone Technology TSTC 11/25/09 $13.63 $16.47 1.0 5.8% +20.8%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 11/25/09 $111.39 $111.25 1.0 24.8% -0.1%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 11/16/09 $110.45 $111.25 2.3 24.0% +0.7%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 11/13/09 $109.96 $111.25 2.7 14.8% +1.2%
Priceline.com Inc. PCLN 11/10/09 $203.56 $218.03 3.1 5.1% +7.1%
Cash 0.0%  
Total 100%  

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

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Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

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