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The Deen's ListTM
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| Our goal since Oct. 2005: Outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
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| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
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| Vol.7 #295 |
Saturday, November 28, 2009 |
3:33PM EST |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us
Performance
|
Deen Capital |
S&P 500 |
| Year-to-date as of November 27, 2009 |
+18.0% * |
+23.6% |
| 12 months (Nov 27, 2008 to Nov 27, 2009) |
+15.1% * |
+26.1% |
| 24 months (Nov 27, 2007 to Nov 27, 2009) |
-11.4% * |
-19.8% |
| 36 months (Nov 27, 2006 to Nov 27, 2009) |
+18.5% * |
-15.6% |
| 48 months (Nov 27, 2005 to Nov 27, 2009) |
+39.8% * |
-6.5% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.
Click here for more performance data.
Click here for information on managed accounts.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BEARISH (since November 24, 2009)
Well, I did not manage last week very well. I sold all our Chinese stocks
on Tuesday in what was a very bad day for that sector. But many of the
stocks I sold came roaring back on Thursday and Friday. It appears I once
again erred on the side of caution. Deen Capital accounts gave back -2.2%
last week, versus an essentially unchanged S&P 500.
And what about December? On the one hand, early indications from U.S.
retailers suggest that yesterday was a better-than-expected Black Friday.
Also, my stock picks index actually improved last week, and is very
bullish now at +8.4 (on a scale of -10 to +10).
On the other hand, my other two indicators remain bearish, and my market
internals indicator actually weakened slightly. We, and the markets, have
just completed (well, almost) a very solid up month. I think there is
considerable risk that December could go the other way.
Managed accounts are now about 0.9 times less volatile than the S&P. That's
pretty close to "par". "Par" is my term for a portfolio whose volatility is
equal to the S&P -- not more, not less. "Par" is consistent with a market
neutral stance -- neither bullish nor bearish.
Right now, I am bearish, but only slightly -- we are close to par. That is
likely to change one way or the other as next week unfolds.
My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
---------- -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10r): BEARISH BEARISH (1)
Last signal: BEARISH on Nov 20, 2009
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: +6.8 BULLISH +8.4 BULLISH (2)
Market Internals: 49% BEARISH 45% BEARISH (3)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating: BEARISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 100:0 85:15
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ
Composite.
(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my
recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number
means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means
they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be
bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator
bullish.
(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above
their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish,
bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up,
down or sideways.
-KD, Saturday, November 28, 2009
Open Positions
Model Portfolio
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
% of
Portfolio |
Gain
(Loss) |
| Telestone Technology |
TSTC |
11/25/09 |
$13.63 |
$13.10 |
0.4 |
4.8% |
-3.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
11/25/09 |
$111.39 |
$109.57 |
0.4 |
25.4% |
-1.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
11/16/09 |
$110.45 |
$109.57 |
1.7 |
24.6% |
-0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
11/13/09 |
$109.96 |
$109.57 |
2.1 |
24.9% |
-0.4% |
| Priceline.com Inc. |
PCLN |
11/10/09 |
$203.56 |
$208.21 |
2.6 |
5.0% |
+2.3% |
| Cash |
15.3% |
|
| Total |
100% |
|
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss)* |
| Rehabcare Group Inc. |
RHB |
11/05/09 |
$24.32 |
11/27/09 |
$27.81 |
3.1 |
+14.3% |
| Telestone Technology |
TSTC |
11/13/09 |
$11.74 |
11/24/09 |
$12.16 |
1.6 |
+3.6% |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares |
SSO |
11/13/09 |
$36.79 |
11/24/09 |
$37.16 |
1.6 |
+1.0% |
| RINO International Corp. |
RINO |
11/16/09 |
$27.48 |
11/24/09 |
$26.60 |
1.1 |
-3.2% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
11/16/09 |
$11.31 |
11/24/09 |
$13.01 |
1.1 |
+15.0% |
| China-Biotics Inc. |
CHBT |
11/20/09 |
$14.74 |
11/24/09 |
$14.41 |
0.6 |
-2.2% |
| China Green Agriculture Inc. |
CGA |
11/18/09 |
$15.54 |
11/24/09 |
$15.39 |
0.9 |
-0.9% |
| China Automotive Systems |
CAAS |
11/17/09 |
$16.67 |
11/24/09 |
$16.13 |
1.0 |
-3.3% |
| Netflix Inc. |
NFLX |
10/26/09 |
$56.14 |
11/12/09 |
$58.38 |
2.4 |
+4.0% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
11/02/09 |
$105.00 |
11/12/09 |
$109.14 |
1.4 |
+3.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/29/09 |
$105.87 |
11/12/09 |
$109.14 |
2.0 |
+3.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/29/09 |
$105.87 |
10/30/09 |
$104.15 |
0.1 |
-1.6% |
| Apple, Inc. |
AAPL |
10/21/09 |
$205.93 |
10/30/09 |
$189.22 |
1.3 |
-8.1% |
| Lincoln Educational |
LINC |
09/28/09 |
$22.65 |
10/28/09 |
$21.31 |
4.3 |
-5.9% |
| Diedrich Coffee Inc. |
DDRX |
10/19/09 |
$28.03 |
10/28/09 |
$27.04 |
1.3 |
-3.5% |
| Telestone Technology |
TSTC |
10/21/09 |
$10.91 |
10/27/09 |
$9.39 |
0.9 |
-13.9% |
| Interactive Intelligence |
ININ |
10/13/09 |
$21.49 |
10/27/09 |
$18.55 |
2.0 |
-13.7% |
| AsiaInfo Holdings Inc. |
ASIA |
10/14/09 |
$23.38 |
10/27/09 |
$21.05 |
1.9 |
-10.0% |
| China Automotive Systems |
CAAS |
10/09/09 |
$10.51 |
10/26/09 |
$11.65 |
2.4 |
+10.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/09/09 |
$107.12 |
10/23/09 |
$108.01 |
2.0 |
+0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/06/09 |
$105.96 |
10/23/09 |
$108.01 |
2.4 |
+1.9% |
| Zhongpin, Inc. |
HOGS |
09/08/09 |
$11.75 |
10/23/09 |
$15.17 |
6.4 |
+29.1% |
| Tongxin International |
TXIC |
10/08/09 |
$10.94 |
10/20/09 |
$10.47 |
1.7 |
-4.3% |
| RINO International Corp. |
RINO |
09/17/09 |
$14.10 |
10/19/09 |
$22.98 |
4.6 |
+62.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/06/09 |
$105.96 |
10/19/09 |
$109.70 |
1.9 |
+3.5% |
| Ulta Salon, Cosmetics |
ULTA |
09/16/09 |
$15.02 |
10/01/09 |
$16.45 |
2.1 |
+9.5% |
| Innodata Isogen |
INOD |
09/29/09 |
$7.90 |
10/01/09 |
$7.41 |
0.3 |
-6.2% |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. |
HITK |
09/09/09 |
$21.14 |
10/01/09 |
$21.55 |
3.1 |
+1.9% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
09/25/09 |
$11.68 |
10/01/09 |
$11.00 |
0.9 |
-5.9% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/28/09 |
$50.79 |
10/01/09 |
$53.77 |
0.4 |
+5.9% |
| China TransInfo Tech. Corp. |
CTFO |
09/22/09 |
$8.52 |
10/01/09 |
$9.01 |
1.3 |
+5.8% |
| China Fire & Security Group |
CFSG |
09/14/09 |
$17.04 |
10/01/09 |
$18.24 |
2.4 |
+7.0% |
| Bio-Reference Labs, Inc. |
BRLI |
09/16/09 |
$34.54 |
10/01/09 |
$34.31 |
2.1 |
-0.7% |
| American Superconductor |
AMSC |
09/30/09 |
$33.81 |
10/01/09 |
$32.16 |
0.1 |
-4.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/11/09 |
$104.83 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.0 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/10/09 |
$104.78 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.1 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
3.4 |
+1.8% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/10/09 |
$52.53 |
09/22/09 |
$47.14 |
1.7 |
-10.3% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/17/09 |
$107.15 |
2.3 |
+4.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.1 |
+4.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/28/09 |
$103.30 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.7 |
+3.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
3.7 |
+3.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/14/09 |
$104.17 |
3.4 |
+1.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.7 |
-2.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/20/09 |
$101.13 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.9 |
-0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
4.0 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
3.9 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/16/09 |
$93.40 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
6.7 |
+7.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/14/09 |
$90.55 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.0 |
+10.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.1 |
+12.2% |
| S X C Health Solutions |
SXCI |
08/06/09 |
$38.12 |
08/31/09 |
$40.89 |
3.6 |
+7.3% |
| Priceline.com Inc. |
PCLN |
08/13/09 |
$150.67 |
08/31/09 |
$153.65 |
2.6 |
+2.0% |
| Geokinetics Inc. |
GOK |
08/21/09 |
$16.91 |
08/31/09 |
$16.99 |
1.4 |
+0.4% |
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means
that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com.
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Privacy Policy
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in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it
with or sell it to others.
Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Contact Us
The Deen's List
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2009 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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