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The Deen's ListTM
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| Our goal since Oct. 2005: Outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
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| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
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| Vol.7 #291 |
Saturday, November 21, 2009 |
5:28PM EST |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us
Performance
|
Deen Capital |
S&P 500 |
| Year-to-date as of November 20, 2009 |
+20.6% * |
+23.5% |
| 12 months (Nov 20, 2008 to Nov 20, 2009) |
+19.4% * |
+48.8% |
| 24 months (Nov 20, 2007 to Nov 20, 2009) |
-9.7% * |
-20.5% |
| 36 months (Nov 20, 2006 to Nov 20, 2009) |
+19.8% * |
-16.8% |
| 48 months (Nov 20, 2005 to Nov 20, 2009) |
+45.9% * |
-5.0% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.
Click here for more performance data.
Click here for information on managed accounts.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BULLISH (since November 16, 2009)
This was an outstanding week for Deen Capital clients. Managed accounts
gained +2.2% on average, versus a -0.1% slip in the S&P 500.
Our stocks are on fire right now, as can be seen from the gains in my
Model Portfolio (below). In this context, I was very surprised to
discover that my NASDAQ Timing Model gave a bearish signal yesterday
(Friday) at the close.
As a result of this, plus continued weakening of market internals, my
technical indicators are now 2-out-of-3 bearish. I didn't discover this
until after Friday's close. I give a large amount of weight to these
indicators -- especially to their end-of-week readings. And right now they
are flashing a red warning sign.
On the other hand, I have, since the March bottom, repeatedly
under-estimated the strength and resilience of this bull market and erred on
the side of caution. And, as I already mentioned, my stock picks are
working out very well indeed. Well, there is nothing cautious about our
present portfolio -- it is about 1.4 times more volatile than the S&P.
Given that there is nothing to be gained between turning bearish now, on the
weekend, versus turning bearish Monday before the open, I will wait and make
a decision early Monday. However, don't be surprised if I turn bearish first
thing Monday morning.
Even if I don't turn officially bearish, I am leaning towards reining in
our exposure to risk.
My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
---------- -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10r): BULLISH BEARISH (1)
Last signal: BEARISH on Nov 20, 2009
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: +3.6 NEUTRAL +6.8 BULLISH (2)
Market Internals: 54% BEARISH 49% BEARISH (3)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating: NEUTRAL BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 50:50 100:0
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ
Composite.
(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my
recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number
means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means
they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be
bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator
bullish.
(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above
their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish,
bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up,
down or sideways.
-KD, Saturday, November 21, 2009
Open Positions
Model Portfolio
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
% of
Portfolio |
Gain
(Loss) |
| China-Biotics Inc. |
CHBT |
11/20/09 |
$14.74 |
$14.97 |
0.1 |
4.7% |
+1.6% |
| China Green Agriculture Inc. |
CGA |
11/18/09 |
$15.54 |
$17.14 |
0.4 |
5.5% |
+10.3% |
| China Automotive Systems |
CAAS |
11/17/09 |
$16.67 |
$16.75 |
0.6 |
5.0% |
+0.5% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
11/16/09 |
$11.31 |
$13.64 |
0.7 |
5.9% |
+20.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
11/16/09 |
$110.45 |
$109.43 |
0.7 |
24.1% |
-0.9% |
| RINO International Corp. |
RINO |
11/16/09 |
$27.48 |
$28.00 |
0.7 |
5.1% |
+1.9% |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares |
SSO |
11/13/09 |
$36.79 |
$36.62 |
1.1 |
9.7% |
-0.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
11/13/09 |
$109.96 |
$109.43 |
1.1 |
24.3% |
-0.5% |
| Telestone Technology |
TSTC |
11/13/09 |
$11.74 |
$13.23 |
1.1 |
5.4% |
+12.7% |
| Priceline.com Inc. |
PCLN |
11/10/09 |
$203.56 |
$208.75 |
1.6 |
4.9% |
+2.6% |
| Rehabcare Group Inc. |
RHB |
11/05/09 |
$24.32 |
$27.03 |
2.3 |
5.2% |
+11.1% |
| Cash |
0.0% |
|
| Total |
100% |
|
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss)* |
| Netflix Inc. |
NFLX |
10/26/09 |
$56.14 |
11/12/09 |
$58.38 |
2.4 |
+4.0% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
11/02/09 |
$105.00 |
11/12/09 |
$109.14 |
1.4 |
+3.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/29/09 |
$105.87 |
11/12/09 |
$109.14 |
2.0 |
+3.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/29/09 |
$105.87 |
10/30/09 |
$104.15 |
0.1 |
-1.6% |
| Apple, Inc. |
AAPL |
10/21/09 |
$205.93 |
10/30/09 |
$189.22 |
1.3 |
-8.1% |
| Lincoln Educational |
LINC |
09/28/09 |
$22.65 |
10/28/09 |
$21.31 |
4.3 |
-5.9% |
| Diedrich Coffee Inc. |
DDRX |
10/19/09 |
$28.03 |
10/28/09 |
$27.04 |
1.3 |
-3.5% |
| Telestone Technology |
TSTC |
10/21/09 |
$10.91 |
10/27/09 |
$9.39 |
0.9 |
-13.9% |
| Interactive Intelligence |
ININ |
10/13/09 |
$21.49 |
10/27/09 |
$18.55 |
2.0 |
-13.7% |
| AsiaInfo Holdings Inc. |
ASIA |
10/14/09 |
$23.38 |
10/27/09 |
$21.05 |
1.9 |
-10.0% |
| China Automotive Systems |
CAAS |
10/09/09 |
$10.51 |
10/26/09 |
$11.65 |
2.4 |
+10.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/09/09 |
$107.12 |
10/23/09 |
$108.01 |
2.0 |
+0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/06/09 |
$105.96 |
10/23/09 |
$108.01 |
2.4 |
+1.9% |
| Zhongpin, Inc. |
HOGS |
09/08/09 |
$11.75 |
10/23/09 |
$15.17 |
6.4 |
+29.1% |
| Tongxin International |
TXIC |
10/08/09 |
$10.94 |
10/20/09 |
$10.47 |
1.7 |
-4.3% |
| RINO International Corp. |
RINO |
09/17/09 |
$14.10 |
10/19/09 |
$22.98 |
4.6 |
+62.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/06/09 |
$105.96 |
10/19/09 |
$109.70 |
1.9 |
+3.5% |
| Ulta Salon, Cosmetics |
ULTA |
09/16/09 |
$15.02 |
10/01/09 |
$16.45 |
2.1 |
+9.5% |
| Innodata Isogen |
INOD |
09/29/09 |
$7.90 |
10/01/09 |
$7.41 |
0.3 |
-6.2% |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. |
HITK |
09/09/09 |
$21.14 |
10/01/09 |
$21.55 |
3.1 |
+1.9% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
09/25/09 |
$11.68 |
10/01/09 |
$11.00 |
0.9 |
-5.9% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/28/09 |
$50.79 |
10/01/09 |
$53.77 |
0.4 |
+5.9% |
| China TransInfo Tech. Corp. |
CTFO |
09/22/09 |
$8.52 |
10/01/09 |
$9.01 |
1.3 |
+5.8% |
| China Fire & Security Group |
CFSG |
09/14/09 |
$17.04 |
10/01/09 |
$18.24 |
2.4 |
+7.0% |
| Bio-Reference Labs, Inc. |
BRLI |
09/16/09 |
$34.54 |
10/01/09 |
$34.31 |
2.1 |
-0.7% |
| American Superconductor |
AMSC |
09/30/09 |
$33.81 |
10/01/09 |
$32.16 |
0.1 |
-4.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/11/09 |
$104.83 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.0 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/10/09 |
$104.78 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.1 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
3.4 |
+1.8% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/10/09 |
$52.53 |
09/22/09 |
$47.14 |
1.7 |
-10.3% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/17/09 |
$107.15 |
2.3 |
+4.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.1 |
+4.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/28/09 |
$103.30 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.7 |
+3.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
3.7 |
+3.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/14/09 |
$104.17 |
3.4 |
+1.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.7 |
-2.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/20/09 |
$101.13 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.9 |
-0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
4.0 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
3.9 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/16/09 |
$93.40 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
6.7 |
+7.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/14/09 |
$90.55 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.0 |
+10.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.1 |
+12.2% |
| S X C Health Solutions |
SXCI |
08/06/09 |
$38.12 |
08/31/09 |
$40.89 |
3.6 |
+7.3% |
| Priceline.com Inc. |
PCLN |
08/13/09 |
$150.67 |
08/31/09 |
$153.65 |
2.6 |
+2.0% |
| Geokinetics Inc. |
GOK |
08/21/09 |
$16.91 |
08/31/09 |
$16.99 |
1.4 |
+0.4% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
08/25/09 |
$9.51 |
08/28/09 |
$7.23 |
0.4 |
-23.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/25/09 |
$103.60 |
6.1 |
+15.8% |
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means
that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com.
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Privacy Policy
Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held
in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it
with or sell it to others.
Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Contact Us
The Deen's List
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2009 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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