The Deen's ListTM
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Vol.7 #290 Friday, November 20, 2009 3:45PM EST

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BULLISH (since November 16, 2009)

Contents

Performance
Bought China-Biotics Inc. (CHBT)
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us

Performance

Deen Capital S&P 500
Year-to-date as of November 19, 2009 +20.4% * +23.9%
12 months (Nov 19, 2008 to Nov 19, 2009) +18.9% * +39.2%
24 months (Nov 19, 2007 to Nov 19, 2009) -10.0% * -19.9%
36 months (Nov 19, 2006 to Nov 19, 2009) +19.4% * -16.6%
48 months (Nov 19, 2005 to Nov 19, 2009) +45.6% * -4.7%

* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.

Click here for more performance data.

Click here for information on managed accounts.

Bought China-Biotics Inc. (CHBT)

Initial percent of portfolio (approx.)5.0%
Net buy price in managed accounts*$14.74
Most recent close (Nov 19)$14.80
Net change (based on net buy price)-0.06
Today's volume as of 3:25pm ET 140,445 ($2.1 million)
Average daily volume333,500 ($4.9 million)
This year's earnings-per-share$1.27 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share$1.53 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings9.6 (est)
Earnings growth rate, next 5 years32% per year (est)
Corporate HeadquartersPudong, China
Web sitewww.chin-biotics.com

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

Today, Friday, November 20, 2009, I bought CHBT, for both client and my personal accounts.

China-Biotics, Inc. researches, develops, produces, markets, and distributes probiotics products in China. Its products contain live microbial food supplements, which affect the host by improving its intestinal microbial balance.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ News: Last Tuesday, Nov 17, before the open, the company announced results for the quarter ended Sep 30. Earnings came in at 31c per diluted share (vs 13c last year and analysts' consensus 25c). Revenue was up 49% to $17.1 million (analysts' consensus $14.8 million).

+ On both Monday and Tuesday, the stock was up sharply on heavy volume.

+ Excellent and accelerating recent sales growth. Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +33%, +19%, +36%, and, most recently, as cited above, +49%.

+ Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Dec 08 vs Dec 07: 22c vs 23c
Mar 09 vs Mar 08: 33c vs 27c
Jun 09 vs Jun 08: 31c vs 26c
Sep 09 vs Sep 08: 31c vs 13c

+ Valuation: At 10 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 32%, the stock is still, even after Tuesday's big gain, very attractively priced.

+ The company's industry group ("Cosmetics / Personal Care") is ranked #15 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally rising over recent weeks and months.

+ The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend.

I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factor:

- Strong but falling earnings-per-share estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for FY 10 (ends March 31) is $1.27, revised downward from $1.62 90 days ago (but up from FY 09 actual earnings of 99c); and the consensus estimate for FY 11 is $1.53, revised downward from $2.42 90 days ago.

-KD, Friday, November 20, 2009

Open Positions

Model Portfolio

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
% of
Portfolio
Gain
(Loss)
China-Biotics Inc. CHBT 11/20/09 $14.74 $14.94 0.0 4.7% +1.4%
China Green Agriculture Inc. CGA 11/18/09 $15.54 $17.39 0.3 5.6% +11.9%
China Automotive Systems CAAS 11/17/09 $16.67 $16.87 0.4 5.0% +1.2%
SmartHeat Inc. HEAT 11/16/09 $11.31 $13.73 0.6 6.0% +21.3%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 11/16/09 $110.45 $109.66 0.6 24.1% -0.7%
RINO International Corp. RINO 11/16/09 $27.48 $27.96 0.6 5.1% +1.7%
Ultra S&P500 ProShares SSO 11/13/09 $36.79 $36.74 1.0 9.7% -0.1%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 11/13/09 $109.96 $109.66 1.0 24.3% -0.3%
Telestone Technology TSTC 11/13/09 $11.74 $13.19 1.0 5.4% +12.3%
Priceline.com Inc. PCLN 11/10/09 $203.56 $208.87 1.4 4.9% +2.6%
Rehabcare Group Inc. RHB 11/05/09 $24.32 $27.15 2.1 5.2% +11.6%
Cash 0.0%  
Total 100%  

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

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Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

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