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The Deen's ListTM
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| Our goal since Oct. 2005: Outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
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| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
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| Vol.7 #274 |
Saturday, October 31, 2009 |
8:21PM EDT |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us
Performance
|
Deen Capital |
S&P 500 |
| Year-to-date as of October 30, 2009 |
+13.3% * |
+17.1% |
| 12 months (Oct 30, 2008 to Oct 30, 2009) |
+5.1% * |
+11.5% |
| 24 months (Oct 30, 2007 to Oct 30, 2009) |
-18.5% * |
-29.0% |
| 36 months (Oct 30, 2006 to Oct 30, 2009) |
+11.5% * |
-19.7% |
| 48 months (Oct 30, 2005 to Oct 30, 2009) |
+47.5% * |
-6.1% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.
Click here for more performance data.
Click here for information on managed accounts.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BEARISH (since October 23, 2009)
It was an ugly week for stocks. In spite of a big 2% up day on Thursday,
the S&P gave back -4.0% for the week. Deen Capital accounts gave back
-4.8%. The S&P is -5.7% off its recent closing high; the significant
correction many, including I, have been expecting, is underway.
We were mostly in cash for most of the week; however, I did make the mistake
of moving from a bearish posture to a market-neutral posture (buying the S&P
500) on Thursday, on the strength of (1) a rally fueled by a very strong and
surprising GDP report, and (2) the S&P was bouncing off of its 50-day moving
average. That rally turned out to be a trap, and, in retrospect, I had
plenty of clues. My indicators remained unanimously bearish throughout the
week, and, equally important, Thursday's volume was relatively light. I
have a rule about ignoring light-volume rallies! I can only say this was a
lapse in judgment. The next day, Friday, when the S&P fell below its 50-day
moving average line, I sold off half of our S&P 500 position.
We are now very conservatively postured. Not only are we 55% cash, but most
of the 45% in stocks is in the S&P 500. This is far more conservative than
45% in in the kinds of volatile individual stocks I usually buy. During most
corrections, and this one is no exception, the stocks I tend to buy
typically fall much harder than the market.
My indicators are about as bearish right now as I have ever seen them. I
expect we are nearing a climactic bottom, but it would not be wise to try to
anticipate it. Cash is the place to be. The path of least resistance is
down.
My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
---------- -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10r): BULLISH BEARISH (1)
Last signal: BEARISH on Oct 26, 2009
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: -2.0 BEARISH -10.0 BEARISH (2)
Market Internals: 69% BEARISH 33% BEARISH (3)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating: BEARISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 36:64 45:55
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ
Composite.
(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my
recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number
means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means
they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be
bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator
bullish.
(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above
their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish,
bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up,
down or sideways.
-KD, Saturday, October 31, 2009
Open Positions
Model Portfolio
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
% of
Portfolio |
Gain
(Loss) |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/29/09 |
$105.87 |
$103.56 |
0.3 |
39.6% |
-2.2% |
| Netflix Inc. |
NFLX |
10/26/09 |
$56.14 |
$53.45 |
0.7 |
5.0% |
-4.8% |
| Cash |
55.4% |
|
| Total |
100% |
|
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss)* |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/29/09 |
$105.87 |
10/30/09 |
$104.15 |
0.1 |
-1.6% |
| Apple, Inc. |
AAPL |
10/21/09 |
$205.93 |
10/30/09 |
$189.22 |
1.3 |
-8.1% |
| Lincoln Educational |
LINC |
09/28/09 |
$22.65 |
10/28/09 |
$21.31 |
4.3 |
-5.9% |
| Diedrich Coffee Inc. |
DDRX |
10/19/09 |
$28.03 |
10/28/09 |
$27.04 |
1.3 |
-3.5% |
| Telestone Technology |
TSTC |
10/21/09 |
$10.91 |
10/27/09 |
$9.39 |
0.9 |
-13.9% |
| Interactive Intelligence |
ININ |
10/13/09 |
$21.49 |
10/27/09 |
$18.55 |
2.0 |
-13.7% |
| AsiaInfo Holdings Inc. |
ASIA |
10/14/09 |
$23.38 |
10/27/09 |
$21.05 |
1.9 |
-10.0% |
| China Automotive Systems |
CAAS |
10/09/09 |
$10.51 |
10/26/09 |
$11.65 |
2.4 |
+10.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/09/09 |
$107.12 |
10/23/09 |
$108.01 |
2.0 |
+0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/06/09 |
$105.96 |
10/23/09 |
$108.01 |
2.4 |
+1.9% |
| Zhongpin, Inc. |
HOGS |
09/08/09 |
$11.75 |
10/23/09 |
$15.17 |
6.4 |
+29.1% |
| Tongxin International |
TXIC |
10/08/09 |
$10.94 |
10/20/09 |
$10.47 |
1.7 |
-4.3% |
| RINO International Corp. |
RINO |
09/17/09 |
$14.10 |
10/19/09 |
$22.98 |
4.6 |
+62.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/06/09 |
$105.96 |
10/19/09 |
$109.70 |
1.9 |
+3.5% |
| Ulta Salon, Cosmetics |
ULTA |
09/16/09 |
$15.02 |
10/01/09 |
$16.45 |
2.1 |
+9.5% |
| Innodata Isogen |
INOD |
09/29/09 |
$7.90 |
10/01/09 |
$7.41 |
0.3 |
-6.2% |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. |
HITK |
09/09/09 |
$21.14 |
10/01/09 |
$21.55 |
3.1 |
+1.9% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
09/25/09 |
$11.68 |
10/01/09 |
$11.00 |
0.9 |
-5.9% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/28/09 |
$50.79 |
10/01/09 |
$53.77 |
0.4 |
+5.9% |
| China TransInfo Tech. Corp. |
CTFO |
09/22/09 |
$8.52 |
10/01/09 |
$9.01 |
1.3 |
+5.8% |
| China Fire & Security Group |
CFSG |
09/14/09 |
$17.04 |
10/01/09 |
$18.24 |
2.4 |
+7.0% |
| Bio-Reference Labs, Inc. |
BRLI |
09/16/09 |
$34.54 |
10/01/09 |
$34.31 |
2.1 |
-0.7% |
| American Superconductor |
AMSC |
09/30/09 |
$33.81 |
10/01/09 |
$32.16 |
0.1 |
-4.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/11/09 |
$104.83 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.0 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/10/09 |
$104.78 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.1 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
3.4 |
+1.8% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/10/09 |
$52.53 |
09/22/09 |
$47.14 |
1.7 |
-10.3% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/17/09 |
$107.15 |
2.3 |
+4.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.1 |
+4.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/28/09 |
$103.30 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.7 |
+3.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
3.7 |
+3.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/14/09 |
$104.17 |
3.4 |
+1.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.7 |
-2.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/20/09 |
$101.13 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.9 |
-0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
4.0 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
3.9 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/16/09 |
$93.40 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
6.7 |
+7.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/14/09 |
$90.55 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.0 |
+10.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.1 |
+12.2% |
| S X C Health Solutions |
SXCI |
08/06/09 |
$38.12 |
08/31/09 |
$40.89 |
3.6 |
+7.3% |
| Priceline.com Inc. |
PCLN |
08/13/09 |
$150.67 |
08/31/09 |
$153.65 |
2.6 |
+2.0% |
| Geokinetics Inc. |
GOK |
08/21/09 |
$16.91 |
08/31/09 |
$16.99 |
1.4 |
+0.4% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
08/25/09 |
$9.51 |
08/28/09 |
$7.23 |
0.4 |
-23.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/25/09 |
$103.60 |
6.1 |
+15.8% |
| Chindex International Inc. |
CHDX |
08/10/09 |
$15.62 |
08/21/09 |
$14.18 |
1.6 |
-9.2% |
| Longtop Financial Tech |
LFT |
08/11/09 |
$31.03 |
08/18/09 |
$25.83 |
1.0 |
-16.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/14/09 |
$100.08 |
4.6 |
+11.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/13/09 |
$101.07 |
4.4 |
+12.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/11/09 |
$99.98 |
4.1 |
+11.7% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/11/09 |
$99.98 |
4.7 |
+13.0% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/10/09 |
$100.40 |
4.6 |
+13.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/06/09 |
$100.07 |
4.0 |
+13.1% |
| TriQuint Semiconductor |
TQNT |
07/24/09 |
$6.96 |
08/05/09 |
$6.59 |
1.7 |
-5.4% |
| NVE Corp. |
NVEC |
07/23/09 |
$53.37 |
08/05/09 |
$54.46 |
1.9 |
+2.0% |
| JDA Software Group |
JDAS |
07/22/09 |
$21.52 |
08/05/09 |
$20.35 |
2.0 |
-5.4% |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. |
HITK |
07/15/09 |
$13.21 |
08/05/09 |
$14.67 |
3.0 |
+11.1% |
| Capella Education Co. |
CPLA |
07/29/09 |
$63.07 |
08/05/09 |
$63.09 |
1.0 |
+0.0% |
| American Superconductor |
AMSC |
07/30/09 |
$32.94 |
08/05/09 |
$32.11 |
0.9 |
-2.5% |
| Global Cash Access Holdings |
GCA |
07/17/09 |
$8.31 |
08/04/09 |
$9.00 |
2.6 |
+8.3% |
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means
that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com.
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with or sell it to others.
Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Contact Us
The Deen's List
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2009 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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