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The Deen's ListTM
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| Our goal since Oct. 2005: Outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
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| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
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| Vol.7 #264 |
Saturday, October 24, 2009 |
12:54PM EDT |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us
Performance
|
Deen Capital |
S&P 500 |
| Year-to-date as of October 23, 2009 |
+19.5% * |
+22.0% |
| 12 months (Oct 23, 2008 to Oct 23, 2009) |
+11.9% * |
+22.1% |
| 24 months (Oct 23, 2007 to Oct 23, 2009) |
-11.1% * |
-25.5% |
| 36 months (Oct 23, 2006 to Oct 23, 2009) |
+19.8% * |
-16.3% |
| 48 months (Oct 23, 2005 to Oct 23, 2009) |
+51.4% * |
-0.6% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.
Click here for more performance data.
Click here for information on managed accounts.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BEARISH (since October 23, 2009)
It was an OK week ... up until Friday. Heavy volume selling Friday sent
most stocks, including ours, reeling, and tipped my indicators (2 out of 3,
anyway) into very bearish territory.
Last week, the S&P gave back -0.7%, Deen Capital accounts -1.1%.
This could be just the start of a significant correction. I moved us to a
64% cash position, and changed my stance to bearish, on Friday. (When my
indicators are overall bearish at the end of the week, I turn cautious.)
With the same breath, I must add that I don't have a lot of confidence in
this bearish call. Here are some reasons why, at this juncture, I want to
retain at least a few toes in the bullish camp:
* I saw plenty of stocks Friday enjoying strong up moves on heavy volume.
Normally, when a serious correction begins, the list of such stocks shrinks
dramatically.
* The last few times I've turned bearish have proven to be false alarms.
This could easily be another. This bull market, which began in March, has
proven itself to be remarkably strong, remarkably resistant to corrections.
* The NASDAQ fell only -0.5% on Friday (versus -1.2% for the S&P). This
relatively strong showing for growth stocks is surprising, and supports the
"false alarm" theory.
I always declare myself either bullish or bearish. I'm choosing bearish, in
deference to my indicators, but the truth is I'm sitting on the fence.
My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
---------- -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10r): BULLISH BULLISH (1)
Last signal: BULLISH on Sep 10, 2009
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: +6.7 BULLISH -2.0 BEARISH (2)
Market Internals: 77% BEARISH 69% BEARISH (3)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating: BULLISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 99:1 36:64
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ
Composite.
(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my
recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number
means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means
they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be
bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator
bullish.
(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above
their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish,
bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up,
down or sideways.
-KD, Saturday, October 24, 2009
Open Positions
Model Portfolio
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
% of
Portfolio |
Gain
(Loss) |
| Apple, Inc. |
AAPL |
10/21/09 |
$205.93 |
$203.94 |
0.4 |
4.9% |
-1.0% |
| Telestone Technology |
TSTC |
10/21/09 |
$10.91 |
$10.80 |
0.4 |
4.9% |
-1.0% |
| Diedrich Coffee Inc. |
DDRX |
10/19/09 |
$28.03 |
$29.62 |
0.7 |
5.5% |
+5.7% |
| AsiaInfo Holdings Inc. |
ASIA |
10/14/09 |
$23.38 |
$22.46 |
1.4 |
4.8% |
-3.9% |
| Interactive Intelligence |
ININ |
10/13/09 |
$21.49 |
$22.00 |
1.6 |
5.1% |
+2.4% |
| China Automotive Systems |
CAAS |
10/09/09 |
$10.51 |
$12.22 |
2.1 |
5.8% |
+16.3% |
| Lincoln Educational |
LINC |
09/28/09 |
$22.65 |
$24.14 |
3.7 |
5.0% |
+6.6% |
| Cash |
64.0% |
|
| Total |
100% |
|
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss)* |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/09/09 |
$107.12 |
10/23/09 |
$108.01 |
2.0 |
+0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/06/09 |
$105.96 |
10/23/09 |
$108.01 |
2.4 |
+1.9% |
| Zhongpin, Inc. |
HOGS |
09/08/09 |
$11.75 |
10/23/09 |
$15.17 |
6.4 |
+29.1% |
| Tongxin International |
TXIC |
10/08/09 |
$10.94 |
10/20/09 |
$10.47 |
1.7 |
-4.3% |
| RINO International Corp. |
RINO |
09/17/09 |
$14.10 |
10/19/09 |
$22.98 |
4.6 |
+62.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
10/06/09 |
$105.96 |
10/19/09 |
$109.70 |
1.9 |
+3.5% |
| Ulta Salon, Cosmetics |
ULTA |
09/16/09 |
$15.02 |
10/01/09 |
$16.45 |
2.1 |
+9.5% |
| Innodata Isogen |
INOD |
09/29/09 |
$7.90 |
10/01/09 |
$7.41 |
0.3 |
-6.2% |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. |
HITK |
09/09/09 |
$21.14 |
10/01/09 |
$21.55 |
3.1 |
+1.9% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
09/25/09 |
$11.68 |
10/01/09 |
$11.00 |
0.9 |
-5.9% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/28/09 |
$50.79 |
10/01/09 |
$53.77 |
0.4 |
+5.9% |
| China TransInfo Tech. Corp. |
CTFO |
09/22/09 |
$8.52 |
10/01/09 |
$9.01 |
1.3 |
+5.8% |
| China Fire & Security Group |
CFSG |
09/14/09 |
$17.04 |
10/01/09 |
$18.24 |
2.4 |
+7.0% |
| Bio-Reference Labs, Inc. |
BRLI |
09/16/09 |
$34.54 |
10/01/09 |
$34.31 |
2.1 |
-0.7% |
| American Superconductor |
AMSC |
09/30/09 |
$33.81 |
10/01/09 |
$32.16 |
0.1 |
-4.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/11/09 |
$104.83 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.0 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/10/09 |
$104.78 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.1 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
3.4 |
+1.8% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/10/09 |
$52.53 |
09/22/09 |
$47.14 |
1.7 |
-10.3% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/17/09 |
$107.15 |
2.3 |
+4.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.1 |
+4.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/28/09 |
$103.30 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.7 |
+3.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
3.7 |
+3.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/14/09 |
$104.17 |
3.4 |
+1.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.7 |
-2.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/20/09 |
$101.13 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.9 |
-0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
4.0 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
3.9 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/16/09 |
$93.40 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
6.7 |
+7.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/14/09 |
$90.55 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.0 |
+10.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.1 |
+12.2% |
| S X C Health Solutions |
SXCI |
08/06/09 |
$38.12 |
08/31/09 |
$40.89 |
3.6 |
+7.3% |
| Priceline.com Inc. |
PCLN |
08/13/09 |
$150.67 |
08/31/09 |
$153.65 |
2.6 |
+2.0% |
| Geokinetics Inc. |
GOK |
08/21/09 |
$16.91 |
08/31/09 |
$16.99 |
1.4 |
+0.4% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
08/25/09 |
$9.51 |
08/28/09 |
$7.23 |
0.4 |
-23.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/25/09 |
$103.60 |
6.1 |
+15.8% |
| Chindex International Inc. |
CHDX |
08/10/09 |
$15.62 |
08/21/09 |
$14.18 |
1.6 |
-9.2% |
| Longtop Financial Tech |
LFT |
08/11/09 |
$31.03 |
08/18/09 |
$25.83 |
1.0 |
-16.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/14/09 |
$100.08 |
4.6 |
+11.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/13/09 |
$101.07 |
4.4 |
+12.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/11/09 |
$99.98 |
4.1 |
+11.7% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/11/09 |
$99.98 |
4.7 |
+13.0% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/10/09 |
$100.40 |
4.6 |
+13.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/06/09 |
$100.07 |
4.0 |
+13.1% |
| TriQuint Semiconductor |
TQNT |
07/24/09 |
$6.96 |
08/05/09 |
$6.59 |
1.7 |
-5.4% |
| NVE Corp. |
NVEC |
07/23/09 |
$53.37 |
08/05/09 |
$54.46 |
1.9 |
+2.0% |
| JDA Software Group |
JDAS |
07/22/09 |
$21.52 |
08/05/09 |
$20.35 |
2.0 |
-5.4% |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. |
HITK |
07/15/09 |
$13.21 |
08/05/09 |
$14.67 |
3.0 |
+11.1% |
| Capella Education Co. |
CPLA |
07/29/09 |
$63.07 |
08/05/09 |
$63.09 |
1.0 |
+0.0% |
| American Superconductor |
AMSC |
07/30/09 |
$32.94 |
08/05/09 |
$32.11 |
0.9 |
-2.5% |
| Global Cash Access Holdings |
GCA |
07/17/09 |
$8.31 |
08/04/09 |
$9.00 |
2.6 |
+8.3% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
07/30/09 |
$99.24 |
3.0 |
+12.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
07/29/09 |
$97.31 |
2.9 |
+10.0% |
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means
that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com.
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Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Contact Us
The Deen's List
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2009 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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