The Deen's ListTM
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Vol.7 #249 Thursday, October 8, 2009 4:05PM EDT

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BEARISH (since September 26, 2009)

Contents

Performance
Bought Tongxin International (TXIC)
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us

Performance

Deen Capital S&P 500
Year-to-date as of October 7, 2009 +17.3% * +19.4%
12 months (Oct 7, 2008 to Oct 7, 2009) +9.3% * +9.1%
24 months (Oct 7, 2007 to Oct 7, 2009) -12.7% * -28.8%
36 months (Oct 7, 2006 to Oct 7, 2009) +18.3% * -16.4%
48 months (Oct 7, 2005 to Oct 7, 2009) +46.8% * -3.9%

* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.

Click here for more performance data.

Click here for information on managed accounts.

Bought Tongxin International (TXIC)

Initial percent of portfolio (approx.)5.0%
Net buy price in managed accounts*$10.94
Most recent close (Oct 07)$9.87
Net change (based on net buy price)+1.07
Today's volume as of 3:50pm ET 786,370 ($8.6 million)
Average daily volume142,200 ($1.6 million)
This year's earnings-per-sharen/a
Next year's earnings-per-sharen/a
P/E using next year's earningsn/a
Earnings growth rate, next 5 yearsn/a
Corporate HeadquartersBirmingham, MI
Web sitewww.hntx.com

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

Today, Thursday, October 8, 2009, I bought TXIC, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts.

Tongxin International Ltd., through its subsidiary, Hunan Tongxin Enterprise Co Ltd., designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and services engineered vehicle body structures (EVBS) for light, medium, and heavy duty trucks, and light vehicles in the People's Republic of China. Its EVBS consist of exterior body panels, including doors, floor pans, hoods, side panels, and fenders. The company also designs, fabricates, and tests dies used in the vehicle body structure manufacturing process. In addition, it manufactures complete cab structures for commercial vehicles. Tongxin International exports its products to Vietnam and the Middle East.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ Market timing: Evidence seems to be mounting that I've been erring on the side of caution. We've been gaining, but underperforming, this week, due to our high level of cash. Here's one more small step in the direction of taking more risk.

+ News: There is news this morning that the company has secured a second on-site manufacturing contract with a leading commercial vehicle manufacturer.

+ Breakout: Today, the stock is breaking out of an 8-week trading range to a new all-time high.

+ Volume spike: Today's breakout volume is more than 5x the daily average as I write this, a few minutes before the close.

+ Technical: Average trading volume on this little-known stock has been rising sharply since April. Most of the volume has been on the buy side.

+ Mostly excellent recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Sep 08 vs Sep 07: $0.19 vs $0.22
Dec 08 vs Dec 07: $1.09 vs $0.14
Mar 09 vs Mar 08: $0.36 vs $0.27
Jun 09 vs Jun 08: $0.34 vs $0.19

Earnings estimates and earnings surprise data are not available for this little-known stock.

+ Valuation: At 6 times trailing 12-month earnings, the stock is very attractively priced.

+ The company's industry group ("Auto/Truck - Original Equipment") is ranked #6 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally fairly stable over recent weeks and months.

+ The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend.

I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following questionable factor:

- Spotty recent sales growth (though the most recent quarter is very good). Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +5%, -18%, -3%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended June 30, +50% to $34.9 million.

-KD, Thursday, October 8, 2009

Open Positions

Model Portfolio

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
% of
Portfolio
Gain
(Loss)
Tongxin International TXIC 10/08/09 $10.94 $10.90 0.0 5.0% -0.4%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 10/06/09 $105.96 $106.61 0.3 19.9% +0.6%
Lincoln Educational LINC 09/28/09 $22.65 $22.97 1.4 4.9% +1.4%
RINO International Corp. RINO 09/17/09 $14.10 $22.95 3.0 7.9% +62.7%
Zhongpin, Inc. HOGS 09/08/09 $11.75 $14.60 4.3 5.9% +24.3%
Cash 56.4%  
Total 100%  

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

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Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

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