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The Deen's ListTM
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| Our goal since Oct. 2005: Outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
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| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
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| Vol.7 #247 |
Saturday, October 3, 2009 |
11:11AM EDT |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us
Performance
|
Deen Capital |
S&P 500 |
| Year-to-date as of October 2, 2009 |
+15.6% * |
+15.7% |
| 12 months (Oct 2, 2008 to Oct 2, 2009) |
+7.7% * |
-5.5% |
| 24 months (Oct 2, 2007 to Oct 2, 2009) |
-12.4% * |
-30.5% |
| 36 months (Oct 2, 2006 to Oct 2, 2009) |
+18.1% * |
-17.8% |
| 48 months (Oct 2, 2005 to Oct 2, 2009) |
+39.8% * |
-9.4% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.
Click here for more performance data.
Click here for information on managed accounts.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BEARISH (since September 26, 2009)
Sweet! Another very gratifying week for Deen Capital clients. The market
was down, but we posted a small gain. Scorecard: Deen Capital +0.7%, S&P
-1.8%. This is a particularly pleasant surprise, given that this was the
week when Deen Capital's quarterly management fee was deducted from managed
accounts. (Yes, that +0.7% is the average one-week change in client account
values AFTER deducting that fee. Our performance numbers always reflect
what's left over after fees and expenses.)
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, our stocks performed extremely well, in
spite of my indicators being overall bearish. Then, on Thursday, the heavy
volume came in, and it was almost all on the sell side. Stocks got
hammered, including our stocks, and I immediately raised our cash level
drastically. Friday, the market was down again, but the 3 stocks I chose to
keep were all up. Nice.
Looking ahead, I think we are looking at an extremely high risk market. The
market's action is confirming what my indicators were already telling me --
that the near-term outlook is not good. I would not be at all surprised if
the heavy selling we saw on Thursday and Friday accelerated into next week.
We are now 82% cash. Very conservative. I'm comfortable with that, though
I'm leaning towards pushing that cash level even higher.
Of course, my view is subject to change, as I re-evaluate market conditions
daily, but right now I say it is time to batten down the hatches. The
market just might tank.
My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
---------- -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10r): BULLISH BULLISH (1)
Last signal: BULLISH on Sep 10, 2009
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: -0.5 BEARISH -2.4 BEARISH (2)
Market Internals: 79% BEARISH 63% BEARISH (3)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating: BEARISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 41:59 18:82
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ
Composite.
(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my
recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number
means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means
they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be
bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator
bullish.
(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above
their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish,
bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up,
down or sideways.
-KD, Saturday, October 3, 2009
Open Positions
Model Portfolio
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
% of
Portfolio |
Gain
(Loss) |
| Lincoln Educational |
LINC |
09/28/09 |
$22.65 |
$22.52 |
0.7 |
4.9% |
-0.6% |
| RINO International Corp. |
RINO |
09/17/09 |
$14.10 |
$20.80 |
2.3 |
7.3% |
+47.5% |
| Zhongpin, Inc. |
HOGS |
09/08/09 |
$11.75 |
$13.45 |
3.6 |
5.5% |
+14.5% |
| Cash |
82.4% |
|
| Total |
100% |
|
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss)* |
| Ulta Salon, Cosmetics |
ULTA |
09/16/09 |
$15.02 |
10/01/09 |
$16.45 |
2.1 |
+9.5% |
| Innodata Isogen |
INOD |
09/29/09 |
$7.90 |
10/01/09 |
$7.41 |
0.3 |
-6.2% |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. |
HITK |
09/09/09 |
$21.14 |
10/01/09 |
$21.55 |
3.1 |
+1.9% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
09/25/09 |
$11.68 |
10/01/09 |
$11.00 |
0.9 |
-5.9% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/28/09 |
$50.79 |
10/01/09 |
$53.77 |
0.4 |
+5.9% |
| China TransInfo Tech. Corp. |
CTFO |
09/22/09 |
$8.52 |
10/01/09 |
$9.01 |
1.3 |
+5.8% |
| China Fire & Security Group |
CFSG |
09/14/09 |
$17.04 |
10/01/09 |
$18.24 |
2.4 |
+7.0% |
| Bio-Reference Labs, Inc. |
BRLI |
09/16/09 |
$34.54 |
10/01/09 |
$34.31 |
2.1 |
-0.7% |
| American Superconductor |
AMSC |
09/30/09 |
$33.81 |
10/01/09 |
$32.16 |
0.1 |
-4.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/11/09 |
$104.83 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.0 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/10/09 |
$104.78 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
2.1 |
-0.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/25/09 |
$104.71 |
3.4 |
+1.8% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
09/10/09 |
$52.53 |
09/22/09 |
$47.14 |
1.7 |
-10.3% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/17/09 |
$107.15 |
2.3 |
+4.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
09/01/09 |
$102.82 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.1 |
+4.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/28/09 |
$103.30 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
2.7 |
+3.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/16/09 |
$107.00 |
3.7 |
+3.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/14/09 |
$104.17 |
3.4 |
+1.1% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/21/09 |
$103.02 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.7 |
-2.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/20/09 |
$101.13 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
1.9 |
-0.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/02/09 |
$100.31 |
4.0 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
08/05/09 |
$100.56 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
3.9 |
-0.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/16/09 |
$93.40 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
6.7 |
+7.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/14/09 |
$90.55 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.0 |
+10.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
09/01/09 |
$100.39 |
7.1 |
+12.2% |
| S X C Health Solutions |
SXCI |
08/06/09 |
$38.12 |
08/31/09 |
$40.89 |
3.6 |
+7.3% |
| Priceline.com Inc. |
PCLN |
08/13/09 |
$150.67 |
08/31/09 |
$153.65 |
2.6 |
+2.0% |
| Geokinetics Inc. |
GOK |
08/21/09 |
$16.91 |
08/31/09 |
$16.99 |
1.4 |
+0.4% |
| SmartHeat Inc. |
HEAT |
08/25/09 |
$9.51 |
08/28/09 |
$7.23 |
0.4 |
-23.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/25/09 |
$103.60 |
6.1 |
+15.8% |
| Chindex International Inc. |
CHDX |
08/10/09 |
$15.62 |
08/21/09 |
$14.18 |
1.6 |
-9.2% |
| Longtop Financial Tech |
LFT |
08/11/09 |
$31.03 |
08/18/09 |
$25.83 |
1.0 |
-16.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/14/09 |
$100.08 |
4.6 |
+11.8% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/13/09 |
$101.07 |
4.4 |
+12.9% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/13/09 |
$89.49 |
08/11/09 |
$99.98 |
4.1 |
+11.7% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/11/09 |
$99.98 |
4.7 |
+13.0% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/10/09 |
$100.40 |
4.6 |
+13.5% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
08/06/09 |
$100.07 |
4.0 |
+13.1% |
| TriQuint Semiconductor |
TQNT |
07/24/09 |
$6.96 |
08/05/09 |
$6.59 |
1.7 |
-5.4% |
| NVE Corp. |
NVEC |
07/23/09 |
$53.37 |
08/05/09 |
$54.46 |
1.9 |
+2.0% |
| JDA Software Group |
JDAS |
07/22/09 |
$21.52 |
08/05/09 |
$20.35 |
2.0 |
-5.4% |
| Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. |
HITK |
07/15/09 |
$13.21 |
08/05/09 |
$14.67 |
3.0 |
+11.1% |
| Capella Education Co. |
CPLA |
07/29/09 |
$63.07 |
08/05/09 |
$63.09 |
1.0 |
+0.0% |
| American Superconductor |
AMSC |
07/30/09 |
$32.94 |
08/05/09 |
$32.11 |
0.9 |
-2.5% |
| Global Cash Access Holdings |
GCA |
07/17/09 |
$8.31 |
08/04/09 |
$9.00 |
2.6 |
+8.3% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
07/30/09 |
$99.24 |
3.0 |
+12.2% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
07/29/09 |
$97.31 |
2.9 |
+10.0% |
| VanceInfo Technologies Inc. |
VIT |
07/16/09 |
$12.79 |
07/23/09 |
$14.58 |
1.0 |
+14.0% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
07/23/09 |
$97.80 |
2.0 |
+10.6% |
| S&P Depositary Receipt |
SPY |
07/09/09 |
$88.46 |
07/22/09 |
$95.31 |
1.9 |
+7.7% |
| APAC Customer Services, Inc. |
APAC |
06/29/09 |
$5.05 |
07/10/09 |
$4.87 |
1.6 |
-3.5% |
| Chinacast Education Corp. |
CAST |
07/01/09 |
$7.26 |
07/07/09 |
$6.56 |
0.9 |
-9.7% |
| Atlantic Tele-Network |
ATNI |
06/18/09 |
$38.58 |
07/07/09 |
$36.59 |
2.7 |
-5.1% |
| STEC, Inc. |
STEC |
05/12/09 |
$13.66 |
07/07/09 |
$23.45 |
8.0 |
+71.7% |
| ArcSight, Inc. |
ARST |
06/24/09 |
$16.90 |
07/06/09 |
$15.97 |
1.7 |
-5.5% |
| Chindex International Inc. |
CHDX |
06/25/09 |
$12.70 |
07/06/09 |
$11.35 |
1.6 |
-10.6% |
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means
that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com.
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This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time,
it is also free to all interested parties.
Privacy Policy
Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held
in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it
with or sell it to others.
Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Contact Us
The Deen's List
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2009 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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