The Deen's ListTM
Our goal since Oct. 2005: Outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.7 #240 Friday, September 25, 2009 3:47PM EDT

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BULLISH (since September 10, 2009)

Contents

Performance
Bought SmartHeat Inc. (HEAT)
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us

Performance

Deen Capital S&P 500
Year-to-date as of September 24, 2009 +15.3% * +18.6%
12 months (Sep 24, 2008 to Sep 24, 2009) +4.1% * -8.9%
24 months (Sep 24, 2007 to Sep 24, 2009) -11.2% * -27.4%
36 months (Sep 24, 2006 to Sep 24, 2009) +15.6% * -14.7%
48 months (Sep 24, 2005 to Sep 24, 2009) +42.3% * -6.1%

* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.

Click here for more performance data.

Click here for information on managed accounts.

Bought SmartHeat Inc. (HEAT)

Initial percent of portfolio (approx.)5.0%
Net buy price in managed accounts*$11.68
Most recent close (Sep 24)$11.17
Net change (based on net buy price)+0.51
Today's volume as of 3:45pm ET 645,679 ($7.5 million)
Average daily volume344,500 ($4.0 million)
This year's earnings-per-share$0.62 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share$0.87 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings13.4 (est)
Earnings growth rate, next 5 yearsn/a
Corporate HeadquartersShenyang, China
Web sitewww.smartheatinc.com

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

Today, Friday, September 25, 2009, I bought HEAT, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts.

SmartHeat, Inc. manufactures sells plate heat exchangers (PHEs) and packages, thermometer testing devices, and heat usage calculators in the People's Republic of China.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ Recent breakout: Back on Sept 18, the stock jumped 19% to $11.94 on huge volume. This was a breakout from a 5-week range to a new all-time high. The stock pulled back a little yesterday and the day before, allowing us to buy today below that price. The stock is up so far today, and I think the stock's strong uptrend is likely to resume. It's been hard to find an entry point for this stock. It's been up 17 of the past 19 trading sessions -- not counting today.

+ Average trading volume has increased substantially since August -- mostly on the buy side.

+ Mostly excellent recent sales growth. Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +586%, -57%, +102%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended June 30, +125% to $12.5 million.

+ Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Sep 08 vs Sep 07: 18c vs 1c
Dec 08 vs Dec 07:  4c vs 9c
Mar 09 vs Mar 08:  5c vs 3c
Jun 09 vs Jun 08: 11c vs 3c

+ Strong and rising earnings-per-share estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2009 is 62c, revised upward from 56c 90 days ago (and up from 2008 actual earnings of 29c); and the consensus estimate for 2010 is 87c, revised upward from 62c 90 days ago.

+ Valuation: At 13 times next year's estimated earning, the stock is very attractively priced. (Estimated 5-year earnings growth rate not available.)

+ History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings-per-share at least 3c above estimates in each of the past three quarters. Most recently, for the quarter ended June 30, they "beat the Street" by 6c.

+ The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend.

I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factor:

- The company's industry group ("Pollution Control - Equipment") is ranked #155 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally falling slightly over recent weeks and months.

-KD, Friday, September 25, 2009

Open Positions

Model Portfolio

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
% of
Portfolio
Gain
(Loss)
SmartHeat Inc. HEAT 09/25/09 $11.68 $11.65 0.0 4.9% -0.3%
China TransInfo Tech. Corp. CTFO 09/22/09 $8.52 $7.79 0.4 4.0% -8.5%
RINO International Corp. RINO 09/17/09 $14.10 $17.31 1.1 6.1% +22.7%
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics ULTA 09/16/09 $15.02 $15.63 1.3 5.2% +4.0%
Bio-Reference Labs, Inc. BRLI 09/16/09 $34.54 $33.34 1.3 4.8% -3.5%
China Fire & Security Group CFSG 09/14/09 $17.04 $18.89 1.6 5.4% +10.8%
Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co. Inc. HITK 09/09/09 $21.14 $19.67 2.3 4.6% -7.0%
Zhongpin, Inc. HOGS 09/08/09 $11.75 $14.78 2.4 6.1% +25.8%
Cash 58.9%  
Total 100%  

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

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Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

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