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Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market Stance: BULLISH (since January 2, 2009) Contents
Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees. Click here for more performance data. Click here for information on managed accounts.
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees. Today, Tuesday, January 6, 2009, I bought FLIR, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. FLIR Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets thermal imaging and broadcast camera systems condition monitoring, research and development, airborne observation and broadcast, search and rescue, and surveillance and reconnaissance. This stock is a component of the IBD 100, the S&P 400 MidCap, and the NASDAQ 100 Indexes. ("IBD" = "Investor's Business Daily") Here's why I bought this stock: + Technical: Within the context of a long-term uptrend, the stock has had a 5-month downtrend -- from a peak of $45.10 on July 18 to a nadir of $24.63 on December 11. Since then, the stock has been steadily climbing, including a huge-volume (10x average) on December 31. We're able to buy within the December 31 range. + The stock is being added to the S&P 500. + Excellent recent sales growth. Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +31%, +47%, +42%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended September 30, +45% to $276.7 million. + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:
Dec 07 vs Dec 06: 30c vs 26c Mar 08 vs Mar 07: 24c vs 18c Jun 08 vs Jun 07: 29c vs 19c Sep 08 vs Sep 07: 35c vs 22c + Strong and rising earnings-per-share estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2008 is $1.26, unchanged from 90 days ago (and up from 2007 actual earnings of 89c); and the consensus estimate for 2009 is $1.56, unchanged from 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 20 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 21%, the stock is attractively priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings-per-share at least a penny above estimates in each of the past three quarters. Most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, they "beat the Street" by 3c. + The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend. I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factor: - The company's industry group ("Elec - Military Systems") is ranked #33 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally falling over recent weeks and months. -KD, Tuesday, January 6, 2009 Model Portfolio
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees. ** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
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