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Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market Stance: BEARISH (since December 13, 2008) Contents
Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees. Click here for more performance data. Click here for information on managed accounts. Bought First Solar Inc. (FSLR)
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees. Today, Wednesday, December 31, 2008, I bought FSLR, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. First Solar, Inc. designs and manufactures electricity-producing solar modules. This stock is a component of the NASDAQ 100 Index. Here's why I bought this stock: + My technical indicators have this morning turned overall bullish. I want to wait and see how the week closes before I make it official, but if this condition holds at week's end, I will turn bullish. Meanwhile, I'm inching our portfolio in that direction. + Technical: This stock was north of $300 in mid-May, then it plunged as low as $87 in late November. Since then, it has been acting well, with the heaviest volume on the buy side. + Explosive recent sales growth. Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +281%, +194%, +246%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, +119% to $348.7 million. + Explosive recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:
Dec 07 vs Dec 06: $0.77 vs $0.12 Mar 08 vs Mar 07: $0.57 vs $0.07 Jun 08 vs Jun 07: $0.85 vs $0.07 Sep 08 vs Sep 07: $1.20 vs $0.49 + Strong and rising earnings-per-share estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2008 is $3.91, revised upward from $3.71 90 days ago (and up from 2007 actual earnings of $1.43); and the consensus estimate for 2009 is $7.05, revised upward from $6.98 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 19 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 46%, the stock is very attractively priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings-per-share at least 10c above estimates in each of the past five quarters. For the most recent quarter, ended Sep 30, they "beat the Street" by 10c. I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factors: - The company's industry group ("Energy - Other") is ranked #190 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally falling slightly over recent weeks and months. - The stock's 200-day moving average is falling, indicating a long-term downtrend. -KD, Wednesday, December 31, 2008 Model Portfolio
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees. ** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
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