The Deen's ListTM
Our Goal: To outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.6 #377 Thursday, December 18, 2008 9:49AM EST

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BEARISH (since December 13, 2008)

Contents

Performance
Bought Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN)
Sold Fluor Corp. (FLR) -1.5%
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us

Performance

Deen Capital S&P 500
Year-to-date as of December 17, 2008 -25.6% * -37.0%
12 months (Dec 17, 2007 to Dec 17, 2008) -25.4% * -36.0%
24 months (Dec 17, 2006 to Dec 17, 2008) -6.2% * -34.0%

* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.

Click here for more performance data.

Click here for information on managed accounts.

Bought Shenandoah Telecom (SHEN)

Initial percent of portfolio (approx.)5.0%
Net buy price in managed accounts*$26.24
Most recent close (Dec 17)$26.05
Net change (based on net buy price)+0.19
Today's volume as of 9:33am ET 3,962 ($103,965)
Average daily volume101,900 ($2.7 million)
This year's earnings-per-share$1.10 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share$1.19 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings22.1 (est)
Earnings growth rate, next 5 years14% per year (est)
Corporate HeadquartersEdinburg, VA
Web sitewww.shentel.com

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

Today, Thursday, December 18, 2008, I bought SHEN, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts.

Shenandoah Telecommunications Company, through its subsidiaries, offers integrated, full service telecommunications products and services in the Northern Shenandoah Valley and surrounding areas.

This stock is a component of the IBD 100 Index. ("IBD" = "Investor's Business Daily")

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ Breakout: Yesterday, this stock broke out of a 12-month range to a new all-time high on heavy volume (about twice the daily average).

+ Three quarters of excellent recent sales growth. Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: -17%, +11%, +11%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, +15% to $37.4 million.

+ Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Dec 07 vs Dec 06: 16c vs 14c
Mar 08 vs Mar 07: 29c vs 25c
Jun 08 vs Jun 07: 29c vs 25c
Sep 08 vs Sep 07: 32c vs 26c

+ Strong and rising earnings-per-share estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2008 is $1.10, revised upward from $1.01 90 days ago (and up from 2007 actual earnings of 91c); and the consensus estimate for 2009 is $1.19, revised upward from 96c 90 days ago.

+ Valuation: At 22 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 14%, the stock is not over- priced.

+ History of earnings surprises: This company "beat the Street" by 7c in the quarter ended June 30, and by 3c in the most recent quarter ended September 30.

+ The company's industry group ("Telecom - Wireless Services") is ranked #73 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally rising over recent weeks and months.

+ The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend.

-KD, Thursday, December 18, 2008

Sold Fluor Corp. (FLR) -1.5%

Net sell price in managed accounts*$49.23
Date(s) boughtDec 9 2008
Net buy price in managed accounts*$49.98
Holding period1.3 weeks
Gain/loss in managed accounts*-1.5% (after commissions)

* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means that the gain/loss shown is also net after transaction expenses.

Today, Thursday, December 18, 2008, I sold FLR, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts.

The chart pattern this morning hints of a minor double-top, and, on top of that, I notice that earnings estimates for next year are now being revised lower. I pointed this out as a negative factor when I bought the stock, and, since then, the consensus earnings estimate for 2009 has fallen still further.

-KD, Thursday, December 18, 2008

Open Positions

Model Portfolio

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
% of
Portfolio
Gain
(Loss)
Shenandoah Telecom SHEN 12/18/08 $26.24 $25.67 0.0 4.9% -2.2%
S X C Health Solutions SXCI 12/16/08 $17.16 $17.45 0.3 5.0% +1.7%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 12/16/08 $89.18 $90.86 0.3 9.4% +1.9%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 12/10/08 $90.31 $90.86 1.1 10.0% +0.6%
Greatbatch Inc. GB 12/09/08 $24.37 $24.75 1.3 6.2% +1.6%
S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 12/08/08 $91.85 $90.86 1.4 15.1% -1.1%
Epiq Systems Inc. EPIQ 12/08/08 $16.95 $16.29 1.4 5.8% -3.9%
Comtech Telecom Co. CMTL 12/08/08 $49.55 $47.07 1.4 6.7% -5.0%
Cash 37.0%  
Total 100%  

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter.

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Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

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