The Deen's List Vol.6 #337

The Deen's List^TM

Our Goal: To outperform the S&P through up markets and down.

A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)

Vol.6 #337 Saturday, November 8, 2008 7:33PM EST

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Weekly Status Report: Contents

Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us

Performance

Deen Capital S&P 500

Year-to-date as of November 7, 2008 -21.3% * -35.4%

12 months (Nov 7, 2007 to Nov 7, 2008) -21.8% * -35.5%

24 months (Nov 7, 2006 to Nov 7, 2008) +7.0% * -30.0%

* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.

Click here for more performance data.

Click here for information on managed accounts.

Market Commentary

Market Stance: BEARISH (since November 6, 2008)

One of the fundamental laws of investing is that your potential gain is proportional to your potential loss. If you want to increase your gain, you must also increase your risk. My goal is to defy this law -- to give you increased gain with DECREASED risk. That is, to gain more than the market on the way up, and at worst to lose less on the way down.

In 2006 and 2007, we posted gains well in excess of the market. We enjoyed the "increased gain" side of this formula. (Follow the "Click here for more performance data" link above for details.) In 2008 so far, we are posting a loss, but far less than the market. This is the "decreased risk" side of my formula. This past week was a success by this yardstick. The S&P fell 3.8%; our accounts gave back half of that, 1.9%.

Though I was briefly bullish for a couple of days early this week, I quickly recognized that this was premature. My indicators came very very close to turning overall bullish, and I acted on the expectation of a bullish signal from my NASDAQ Timing Model. But, after going right up to the tipping point, my indicators (and the market) backed off.

The drumbeat of bad news on the economy continues apace, and the bargain hunters are still in the minority. This is still a very high-risk market. True, the market did rally on Friday, but I say disregard this because volume was light.

I am doing a little nibbling here and there, especially in the healthcare sector, which is performing quite well. But the main point is that we are very heavily in cash (75% cash now versus 83% one week ago), waiting for market psychology, as measured by my technical indicators, to turn around.

As a parting observation, I'd just like to note that a turnaround in market psychology is all that is needed to set this market into rally mode. A sense that there is light at the end of the tunnel. You can't detect this in the constant stream of bad news. That's where my technical indicators come in. This is exactly what they do -- they detect major shifts in market psychology. And psychology is the #1 factor determining the market's direction.

My Three Primary Technical Indicators:

                                       Prior week             Now
                                       ----------           -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q):           BEARISH            BEARISH (1)
Last signal:  BEARISH on Sep 4, 2008

Performance of Recent Stock Picks:  +4.7 NEUTRAL       +0.7 BEARISH (2)

Market Internals:                    14% NEUTRAL        15% NEUTRAL (3)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating:       BEARISH            BEARISH

Stocks:Cash ratio (average):              17:83              25:75

(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ Composite.

(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator bullish.

(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish, bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up, down or sideways.

-KD, Saturday, November 8, 2008

Open Positions

Model Portfolio

Company Name Stock
Symbol Buy
Date NetBuy
Price* Current
Price Weeks
Held % of
Portfolio Gain
(Loss)

Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. FSYS 11/07/08 $37.26 $38.80 0.1 8.2% +4.1%

Thoratec Corp. THOR 10/31/08 $24.67 $24.53 1.1 8.1% -0.6%

LHC Group Inc. LHCG 10/30/08 $30.61 $33.07 1.3 8.8% +8.0%

Cash 75.0%

Total 100%

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks

Company Name Stock
Symbol Buy
Date NetBuy
Price* Sell
Date NetSell
Price* Weeks
Held Gain
(Loss)*

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 11/03/08 $96.60 11/05/08 $98.97 0.3 +2.5%

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 11/04/08 $100.20 11/05/08 $95.62 0.1 -4.6%

Ensign Group Inc. ENSG 11/03/08 $17.92 11/05/08 $15.93 0.3 -11.1%

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 10/30/08 $94.91 10/31/08 $95.02 0.1 +0.1%

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 10/17/08 $95.44 10/21/08 $95.81 0.6 +0.4%

Royal Gold Inc. RGLD 09/18/08 $37.73 10/16/08 $33.18 4.0 -12.1%

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 09/25/08 $121.56 09/29/08 $113.48 0.6 -6.6%

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 09/19/08 $124.54 09/29/08 $113.48 1.4 -8.9%

S&P Depository Receipt SPY 09/19/08 $124.33 09/24/08 $118.73 0.7 -4.5%

S&P Depository Receipt SPY 09/18/08 $120.17 09/24/08 $118.73 0.9 -1.2%

S&P Depository Receipt SPY 09/18/08 $120.17 09/22/08 $120.50 0.6 +0.3%

Varian Medical Systems VAR 07/24/08 $59.79 09/19/08 $60.12 8.1 +0.5%

Thoratec Corp. THOR 08/05/08 $23.18 09/19/08 $27.48 6.4 +18.6%

Covidien, Ltd. COV 08/05/08 $52.60 09/19/08 $53.60 6.4 +1.9%

Estee Lauder Cos Inc. EL 08/18/08 $51.31 09/19/08 $50.51 4.6 -1.6%

Super Micro Computer, Inc. SMCI 09/03/08 $10.71 09/17/08 $9.98 2.0 -6.8%

DXP Enterprises, Inc. DXPE 09/08/08 $60.40 09/17/08 $57.66 1.3 -4.5%

Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. QCOR 09/11/08 $6.19 09/17/08 $5.78 0.9 -6.7%

CSX Corp. CSX 09/12/08 $61.28 09/16/08 $56.59 0.6 -7.7%

Solera Holdings Inc. SLH 08/28/08 $30.01 09/15/08 $28.74 2.6 -4.2%

II-VI, Inc. IIVI 09/08/08 $42.30 09/15/08 $40.26 1.0 -4.8%

Bruker Corp. BRKR 09/02/08 $16.37 09/12/08 $15.30 1.4 -6.5%

Parametric Tech PMTC 09/08/08 $20.77 09/11/08 $19.76 0.4 -4.9%

Sapient Corp. SAPE 08/27/08 $9.25 09/10/08 $8.66 2.0 -6.4%

SkillSoft PLC SKIL 08/22/08 $10.67 09/09/08 $10.43 2.6 -2.3%

Ebix Inc. EBIX 08/14/08 $105.10 09/05/08 $102.11 3.1 -2.8%

VisionChina Media Inc. VISN 08/21/08 $19.22 09/05/08 $17.33 2.1 -9.8%

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. LDK 08/26/08 $48.65 09/05/08 $43.52 1.4 -10.6%

Kendle International Inc. KNDL 08/28/08 $50.63 09/05/08 $46.49 1.1 -8.2%

II-VI, Inc. IIVI 08/05/08 $39.98 09/04/08 $41.88 4.3 +4.8%

PAREXEL International Corp. PRXL 08/07/08 $32.62 09/04/08 $30.63 4.0 -6.1%

SunPower Corp. SPWR 08/18/08 $89.00 09/03/08 $85.19 2.3 -4.3%

Woodward Governor WGOV 07/22/08 $44.19 09/02/08 $45.87 6.0 +3.8%

Amphenol Corp. APH 08/22/08 $48.98 08/25/08 $47.52 0.4 -3.0%

St. Jude Medical STJ 07/16/08 $45.55 08/20/08 $46.03 5.0 +1.0%

Sapient Corp. SAPE 08/08/08 $8.16 08/19/08 $8.70 1.6 +6.7%

Badger Meter Inc. BMI 07/22/08 $55.68 08/18/08 $51.49 3.9 -7.5%

Amphenol Corp. APH 08/06/08 $48.29 08/18/08 $50.15 1.7 +3.8%

Innophos Holdings Inc. IPHS 08/06/08 $34.71 08/15/08 $33.70 1.3 -2.9%

Amedisys Inc. AMED 07/17/08 $59.44 08/12/08 $54.31 3.7 -8.6%

Altera Corp. ALTR 07/18/08 $21.45 08/12/08 $23.71 3.6 +10.5%

IBM IBM 07/21/08 $129.38 08/12/08 $124.71 3.1 -3.6%

EZCORP, Inc. EZPW 07/25/08 $17.71 08/11/08 $15.48 2.4 -12.6%

Titan International Inc. TWI 07/31/08 $46.52 08/11/08 $40.35 1.6 -13.3%

Calgon Carbon Corp. CCC 07/31/08 $19.69 08/11/08 $18.70 1.6 -5.0%

* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.

Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's List^TM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

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Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's List^TM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List^TM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

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