The Deen's List Vol.6 #320

The Deen's List^TM

Our Goal: To outperform the S&P through up markets and down.

A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)

Vol.6 #320 Saturday, October 18, 2008 6:39PM EDT

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Weekly Status Report: Contents

Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us

Performance

Deen Capital S&P 500

Year-to-date as of October 17, 2008 -22.2% * -34.9%

12 months (Oct 17, 2007 to Oct 17, 2008) -21.3% * -37.7%

* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.

Click here for more performance data.

Click here for information on managed accounts.

Market Commentary

Market Stance: BEARISH (since September 24, 2008)

October so far has been a very ugly month, even uglier than September. But Deen Capital accounts have done well on a relative basis. Since the end of September, the S&P is down 19.3%, while Deen Capital accounts, on average, are down only 2.6%.

This excellent (relatively speaking!) near-term result factors in last week, which went the other way (S&P +4.6%, Deen Capital -2.1%). Last week was the first positive week for the market since mid-September, and we did not participate. Could the market have just made a meaningful bottom? Does this rally have legs?

Based on my indicators, I would say no, I do not see signs of an important bottom -- though I do see some suggestion of a short-term bounce, perhaps 10% or more. October 10 was the market's bottom so far, and there was enormous volume that day, including an impressive final-hour rally off the multi-year low. Enormous volume is one of the hallmark signs of market turning points. A successful test of that October 10 low occurred Thursday.

With the intention of holding for probably only a few days, and with the modest goal of recovering only a few percentage points of our year-to-date loss, I put 65% of our cash to work in the S&P 500 on Friday morning. If the market moves against me, however, as it started to do late Friday, I will be very quick to get back out!

The big picture is this -- we are still very much in a bear market. My technical indicators are the best means I know to give early notice of an important bottom, and they remain unanimously bearish. We may or may not see more of this bear-market rally next week, but, either way, I say it's still a bear market -- until my indicators tell me otherwise.

My Three Primary Technical Indicators:

                                       Prior week             Now
                                       ----------           -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q):           BEARISH            BEARISH (1)
Last signal:  BEARISH on Sep 4, 2008

Performance of Recent Stock Picks:  -9.4 BEARISH       -9.2 BEARISH (2)

Market Internals:                     3% BEARISH         7% BEARISH (3)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating:       BEARISH            BEARISH

Stocks:Cash ratio (average):              6:94               65:35

(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ Composite.

(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator bullish.

(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish, bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up, down or sideways.

-KD, Saturday, October 18, 2008

Open Positions

Model Portfolio

Company Name Stock
Symbol Buy
Date NetBuy
Price* Current
Price Weeks
Held % of
Portfolio Gain
(Loss)

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 10/17/08 $95.44 $93.29 0.1 64.5% -2.3%

Cash 35.5%

Total 100%

* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.

Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks

Company Name Stock
Symbol Buy
Date NetBuy
Price* Sell
Date NetSell
Price* Weeks
Held Gain
(Loss)*

Royal Gold Inc. RGLD 09/18/08 $37.73 10/16/08 $33.18 4.0 -12.1%

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 09/25/08 $121.56 09/29/08 $113.48 0.6 -6.6%

S&P Depositary Receipt SPY 09/19/08 $124.54 09/29/08 $113.48 1.4 -8.9%

S&P Depository Receipt SPY 09/19/08 $124.33 09/24/08 $118.73 0.7 -4.5%

S&P Depository Receipt SPY 09/18/08 $120.17 09/24/08 $118.73 0.9 -1.2%

S&P Depository Receipt SPY 09/18/08 $120.17 09/22/08 $120.50 0.6 +0.3%

Varian Medical Systems VAR 07/24/08 $59.79 09/19/08 $60.12 8.1 +0.5%

Thoratec Corp. THOR 08/05/08 $23.18 09/19/08 $27.48 6.4 +18.6%

Covidien, Ltd. COV 08/05/08 $52.60 09/19/08 $53.60 6.4 +1.9%

Estee Lauder Cos Inc. EL 08/18/08 $51.31 09/19/08 $50.51 4.6 -1.6%

Super Micro Computer, Inc. SMCI 09/03/08 $10.71 09/17/08 $9.98 2.0 -6.8%

DXP Enterprises, Inc. DXPE 09/08/08 $60.40 09/17/08 $57.66 1.3 -4.5%

Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. QCOR 09/11/08 $6.19 09/17/08 $5.78 0.9 -6.7%

CSX Corp. CSX 09/12/08 $61.28 09/16/08 $56.59 0.6 -7.7%

Solera Holdings Inc. SLH 08/28/08 $30.01 09/15/08 $28.74 2.6 -4.2%

II-VI, Inc. IIVI 09/08/08 $42.30 09/15/08 $40.26 1.0 -4.8%

Bruker Corp. BRKR 09/02/08 $16.37 09/12/08 $15.30 1.4 -6.5%

Parametric Tech PMTC 09/08/08 $20.77 09/11/08 $19.76 0.4 -4.9%

Sapient Corp. SAPE 08/27/08 $9.25 09/10/08 $8.66 2.0 -6.4%

SkillSoft PLC SKIL 08/22/08 $10.67 09/09/08 $10.43 2.6 -2.3%

Ebix Inc. EBIX 08/14/08 $105.10 09/05/08 $102.11 3.1 -2.8%

VisionChina Media Inc. VISN 08/21/08 $19.22 09/05/08 $17.33 2.1 -9.8%

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. LDK 08/26/08 $48.65 09/05/08 $43.52 1.4 -10.6%

Kendle International Inc. KNDL 08/28/08 $50.63 09/05/08 $46.49 1.1 -8.2%

II-VI, Inc. IIVI 08/05/08 $39.98 09/04/08 $41.88 4.3 +4.8%

PAREXEL International Corp. PRXL 08/07/08 $32.62 09/04/08 $30.63 4.0 -6.1%

SunPower Corp. SPWR 08/18/08 $89.00 09/03/08 $85.19 2.3 -4.3%

Woodward Governor WGOV 07/22/08 $44.19 09/02/08 $45.87 6.0 +3.8%

Amphenol Corp. APH 08/22/08 $48.98 08/25/08 $47.52 0.4 -3.0%

St. Jude Medical STJ 07/16/08 $45.55 08/20/08 $46.03 5.0 +1.0%

Sapient Corp. SAPE 08/08/08 $8.16 08/19/08 $8.70 1.6 +6.7%

Badger Meter Inc. BMI 07/22/08 $55.68 08/18/08 $51.49 3.9 -7.5%

Amphenol Corp. APH 08/06/08 $48.29 08/18/08 $50.15 1.7 +3.8%

Innophos Holdings Inc. IPHS 08/06/08 $34.71 08/15/08 $33.70 1.3 -2.9%

Amedisys Inc. AMED 07/17/08 $59.44 08/12/08 $54.31 3.7 -8.6%

Altera Corp. ALTR 07/18/08 $21.45 08/12/08 $23.71 3.6 +10.5%

IBM IBM 07/21/08 $129.38 08/12/08 $124.71 3.1 -3.6%

EZCORP, Inc. EZPW 07/25/08 $17.71 08/11/08 $15.48 2.4 -12.6%

Titan International Inc. TWI 07/31/08 $46.52 08/11/08 $40.35 1.6 -13.3%

Calgon Carbon Corp. CCC 07/31/08 $19.69 08/11/08 $18.70 1.6 -5.0%

America's Car-Mart, Inc. CRMT 07/03/08 $18.95 08/04/08 $19.34 4.6 +2.0%

Robbins & Myers Inc. RBN 07/16/08 $50.30 08/04/08 $48.98 2.7 -2.6%

Amphenol Corp. APH 07/17/08 $50.73 08/04/08 $46.32 2.6 -8.7%

Northwest Pipe Co. NWPX 07/23/08 $56.53 08/04/08 $52.56 1.7 -7.0%

Tyler Technologies Inc. TYL 07/25/08 $17.15 08/04/08 $15.37 1.4 -10.4%

VisionChina Media Inc. VISN 07/30/08 $23.16 08/04/08 $19.37 0.7 -16.4%

ENGlobal Corp. ENG 07/09/08 $13.92 07/31/08 $12.38 3.1 -11.1%

CIRCOR International Inc. CIR 07/10/08 $62.06 07/31/08 $59.62 3.0 -3.9%

Plexus Corp. PLXS 07/25/08 $30.28 07/30/08 $29.33 0.7 -3.1%

Balchem Corp. BCPC 07/08/08 $25.56 07/29/08 $25.69 3.0 +0.5%

AeroVironment Inc. AVAV 06/25/08 $28.28 07/24/08 $30.19 4.1 +6.7%

Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. FSYS 07/09/08 $31.64 07/24/08 $37.36 2.1 +18.1%

Crown Holdings Inc. CCK 07/18/08 $29.16 07/24/08 $27.65 0.9 -5.2%

* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.

Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's List^TM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter.

Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line.

This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties.

Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others.

Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's List^TM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List^TM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

The Deen's List
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com