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The Deen's ListTM
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| Our Goal: To outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
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| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
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| Vol.6 #296 |
Saturday, September 13, 2008 |
5:15PM EDT |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us
Performance
|
Deen Capital |
S&P 500 |
| Year-to-date as of September 12, 2008 |
-12.8% * |
-13.5% |
| 12 months (Sep 12, 2007 to Sep 12, 2008) |
-5.5% * |
-13.2% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.
Click here for more performance data.
Click here for information on managed accounts.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BEARISH (since September 4, 2008)
First, it was Bear Stearns. Then, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Now, it
appears that the viability of Lehman Brothers is very much in doubt, with
Washington Mutual and AIG not far behind. These are the big boys. It is
very scary to see them fall one right after another. We are in a time of
crisis, and it just continues to get worse. Asset values of all types are
falling hard -- stocks, real estate, and commodities. Even gold.
Sure, last week we got a little bounce (S&P +0.8%, Deen Capital +0.4%), but
I am not impressed. I say that because the buying volume was just not
there. We had very heavy volume on Tuesday -- a big down day. Then volume
trailed off as the market inched higher for the rest of the week. In other
words, the bears (sellers) are still in control.
We COULD be near a major bottom here -- bottoms often come when there is
blood (figuratively of course) in the street as now -- but we need a
catalyst. The Fed is meeting next week. If they cut interest rates that
just might do the trick. But this is pure speculation. I'm not counting on
it.
My indicators remain overall bearish, and market risk remains high. My
emphasis remains on preserving capital.
My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
---------- -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q): BEARISH BEARISH (1)
Last signal: BEARISH on Sep 4, 2008
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: -4.3 BEARISH -3.8 BEARISH (2)
Market Internals: 48% NEUTRAL 42% NEUTRAL (3)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating: BEARISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 49:51 56:44
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ
Composite.
(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my
recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number
means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means
they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be
bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator
bullish.
(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above
their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish,
bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up,
down or sideways.
-KD, Saturday, September 13, 2008
Open Positions
Model Portfolio
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
% of
Portfolio |
Gain
(Loss) |
| CSX Corp. |
CSX |
09/12/08 |
$61.28 |
$61.61 |
0.1 |
5.0% |
+0.5% |
| Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
QCOR |
09/11/08 |
$6.19 |
$6.79 |
0.3 |
5.4% |
+9.6% |
| II-VI, Inc. |
IIVI |
09/08/08 |
$42.30 |
$41.85 |
0.7 |
4.9% |
-1.1% |
| DXP Enterprises, Inc. |
DXPE |
09/08/08 |
$60.40 |
$63.47 |
0.7 |
6.2% |
+5.1% |
| Super Micro Computer, Inc. |
SMCI |
09/03/08 |
$10.71 |
$10.57 |
1.4 |
4.1% |
-1.3% |
| Solera Holdings Inc. |
SLH |
08/28/08 |
$30.01 |
$29.53 |
2.3 |
5.0% |
-1.6% |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc. |
EL |
08/18/08 |
$51.31 |
$53.42 |
3.7 |
5.3% |
+4.1% |
| Thoratec Corp. |
THOR |
08/05/08 |
$23.18 |
$26.91 |
5.6 |
7.1% |
+16.1% |
| Covidien, Ltd. |
COV |
08/05/08 |
$52.60 |
$56.24 |
5.6 |
6.5% |
+6.9% |
| Varian Medical Systems |
VAR |
07/24/08 |
$59.79 |
$63.03 |
7.3 |
6.6% |
+5.4% |
| Cash |
43.9% |
|
| Total |
100% |
|
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss)* |
| Bruker Corp. |
BRKR |
09/02/08 |
$16.37 |
09/12/08 |
$15.30 |
1.4 |
-6.5% |
| Parametric Tech |
PMTC |
09/08/08 |
$20.77 |
09/11/08 |
$19.76 |
0.4 |
-4.9% |
| Sapient Corp. |
SAPE |
08/27/08 |
$9.25 |
09/10/08 |
$8.66 |
2.0 |
-6.4% |
| SkillSoft PLC |
SKIL |
08/22/08 |
$10.67 |
09/09/08 |
$10.43 |
2.6 |
-2.3% |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
08/14/08 |
$105.10 |
09/05/08 |
$102.11 |
3.1 |
-2.8% |
| VisionChina Media Inc. |
VISN |
08/21/08 |
$19.22 |
09/05/08 |
$17.33 |
2.1 |
-9.8% |
| LDK Solar Co. Ltd. |
LDK |
08/26/08 |
$48.65 |
09/05/08 |
$43.52 |
1.4 |
-10.6% |
| Kendle International Inc. |
KNDL |
08/28/08 |
$50.63 |
09/05/08 |
$46.49 |
1.1 |
-8.2% |
| II-VI, Inc. |
IIVI |
08/05/08 |
$39.98 |
09/04/08 |
$41.88 |
4.3 |
+4.8% |
| PAREXEL International Corp. |
PRXL |
08/07/08 |
$32.62 |
09/04/08 |
$30.63 |
4.0 |
-6.1% |
| SunPower Corp. |
SPWR |
08/18/08 |
$89.00 |
09/03/08 |
$85.19 |
2.3 |
-4.3% |
| Woodward Governor |
WGOV |
07/22/08 |
$44.19 |
09/02/08 |
$45.87 |
6.0 |
+3.8% |
| Amphenol Corp. |
APH |
08/22/08 |
$48.98 |
08/25/08 |
$47.52 |
0.4 |
-3.0% |
| St. Jude Medical |
STJ |
07/16/08 |
$45.55 |
08/20/08 |
$46.03 |
5.0 |
+1.0% |
| Sapient Corp. |
SAPE |
08/08/08 |
$8.16 |
08/19/08 |
$8.70 |
1.6 |
+6.7% |
| Badger Meter Inc. |
BMI |
07/22/08 |
$55.68 |
08/18/08 |
$51.49 |
3.9 |
-7.5% |
| Amphenol Corp. |
APH |
08/06/08 |
$48.29 |
08/18/08 |
$50.15 |
1.7 |
+3.8% |
| Innophos Holdings Inc. |
IPHS |
08/06/08 |
$34.71 |
08/15/08 |
$33.70 |
1.3 |
-2.9% |
| Amedisys Inc. |
AMED |
07/17/08 |
$59.44 |
08/12/08 |
$54.31 |
3.7 |
-8.6% |
| Altera Corp. |
ALTR |
07/18/08 |
$21.45 |
08/12/08 |
$23.71 |
3.6 |
+10.5% |
| IBM |
IBM |
07/21/08 |
$129.38 |
08/12/08 |
$124.71 |
3.1 |
-3.6% |
| EZCORP, Inc. |
EZPW |
07/25/08 |
$17.71 |
08/11/08 |
$15.48 |
2.4 |
-12.6% |
| Titan International Inc. |
TWI |
07/31/08 |
$46.52 |
08/11/08 |
$40.35 |
1.6 |
-13.3% |
| Calgon Carbon Corp. |
CCC |
07/31/08 |
$19.69 |
08/11/08 |
$18.70 |
1.6 |
-5.0% |
| America's Car-Mart, Inc. |
CRMT |
07/03/08 |
$18.95 |
08/04/08 |
$19.34 |
4.6 |
+2.0% |
| Robbins & Myers Inc. |
RBN |
07/16/08 |
$50.30 |
08/04/08 |
$48.98 |
2.7 |
-2.6% |
| Amphenol Corp. |
APH |
07/17/08 |
$50.73 |
08/04/08 |
$46.32 |
2.6 |
-8.7% |
| Northwest Pipe Co. |
NWPX |
07/23/08 |
$56.53 |
08/04/08 |
$52.56 |
1.7 |
-7.0% |
| Tyler Technologies Inc. |
TYL |
07/25/08 |
$17.15 |
08/04/08 |
$15.37 |
1.4 |
-10.4% |
| VisionChina Media Inc. |
VISN |
07/30/08 |
$23.16 |
08/04/08 |
$19.37 |
0.7 |
-16.4% |
| ENGlobal Corp. |
ENG |
07/09/08 |
$13.92 |
07/31/08 |
$12.38 |
3.1 |
-11.1% |
| CIRCOR International Inc. |
CIR |
07/10/08 |
$62.06 |
07/31/08 |
$59.62 |
3.0 |
-3.9% |
| Plexus Corp. |
PLXS |
07/25/08 |
$30.28 |
07/30/08 |
$29.33 |
0.7 |
-3.1% |
| Balchem Corp. |
BCPC |
07/08/08 |
$25.56 |
07/29/08 |
$25.69 |
3.0 |
+0.5% |
| AeroVironment Inc. |
AVAV |
06/25/08 |
$28.28 |
07/24/08 |
$30.19 |
4.1 |
+6.7% |
| Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. |
FSYS |
07/09/08 |
$31.64 |
07/24/08 |
$37.36 |
2.1 |
+18.1% |
| Crown Holdings Inc. |
CCK |
07/18/08 |
$29.16 |
07/24/08 |
$27.65 |
0.9 |
-5.2% |
| Lufkin Industries Inc. |
LUFK |
07/17/08 |
$91.00 |
07/18/08 |
$83.84 |
0.1 |
-7.9% |
| SAIC, Inc. |
SAI |
06/04/08 |
$20.69 |
07/16/08 |
$19.05 |
6.0 |
-7.9% |
| AZZ Inc. |
AZZ |
06/27/08 |
$39.10 |
07/14/08 |
$44.25 |
2.4 |
+13.2% |
| ENGlobal Corp. |
ENG |
06/30/08 |
$14.31 |
07/07/08 |
$13.15 |
1.0 |
-8.1% |
| EnerSys |
ENS |
06/12/08 |
$34.73 |
07/02/08 |
$32.04 |
2.9 |
-7.8% |
| N. American Energy Partners |
NOA |
06/23/08 |
$22.13 |
07/02/08 |
$19.94 |
1.3 |
-9.9% |
| The Western Union Co. |
WU |
06/25/08 |
$26.01 |
07/02/08 |
$23.85 |
1.0 |
-8.3% |
| Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. |
FSYS |
05/13/08 |
$24.34 |
06/24/08 |
$35.29 |
6.0 |
+45.0% |
| Agrium Inc. |
AGU |
06/11/08 |
$99.96 |
06/24/08 |
$107.01 |
1.9 |
+7.0% |
| ReneSola Ltd |
SOL |
06/19/08 |
$22.01 |
06/24/08 |
$19.75 |
0.7 |
-10.3% |
| Gushan Environmental Energy |
GU |
06/19/08 |
$13.39 |
06/23/08 |
$11.90 |
0.6 |
-11.2% |
| IBM |
IBM |
04/29/08 |
$122.83 |
06/20/08 |
$122.50 |
7.4 |
-0.3% |
| Airgas Inc. |
ARG |
05/06/08 |
$55.94 |
06/20/08 |
$62.08 |
6.4 |
+11.0% |
| Activision Inc. |
ATVI |
05/09/08 |
$31.41 |
06/20/08 |
$35.55 |
6.0 |
+13.2% |
| Donaldson Co. Inc. |
DCI |
05/28/08 |
$49.37 |
06/20/08 |
$48.99 |
3.3 |
-0.8% |
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means
that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
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Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
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PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2008 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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