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The Deen's ListTM
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| Our Goal: To outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
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| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
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| Vol.6 #287 |
Saturday, September 6, 2008 11:47AM EDT |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us
Performance
|
Deen Capital |
S&P 500 |
| Year-to-date as of September 5, 2008 |
-13.2% * |
-14.2% |
| 12 months (Sep 5, 2007 to Sep 5, 2008) |
-2.7% * |
-13.9% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.
Click here for more performance data.
Click here for information on managed accounts.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BEARISH (since September 4, 2008)
Last week was extremely ugly. This 10-month-old bear market came back
with a vengeance, making it clear we are not out of the woods yet.
Worries about a global economic slowdown took center stage. Not helping
matters was news that the U.S. unemployment rate is the highest in 5 years.
I got it wrong last week. I went into this week in an aggressive, bullish
posture, and as a result we under-performed slightly. The S&P lost 3.1%,
Deen Capital accounts gave back 3.5%. (And the NASDAQ swooned 4.7%.)
Permit me to reflect for a moment on the subject of market timing. Market
timing is tricky business. Many experts say it's so tricky one should not
even try. However, I do get it right often enough to make it worthwhile.
We are still outperforming the market year-to-date. On a 12-month basis, we
are outperforming by a double-digit margin. Very few investment
alternatives can make that claim. And my past market timing successes were
a major contributing factor.
My indicators turned overall bearish last week, I turned bearish, and we're
now about 51% cash.
A bottom is surely coming, but I don't even try to predict when. Instead, I
try to recognize it as quickly as possible after the fact.
My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
---------- -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q): BULLISH BEARISH (1)
Last signal: BEARISH on Sep 4, 2008
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: +6.0 BULLISH -4.3 BEARISH (2)
Market Internals: 59% BULLISH 48% NEUTRAL (3)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating: BULLISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 83:17 49:51
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ
Composite.
(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my
recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number
means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means
they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be
bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator
bullish.
(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above
their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish,
bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up,
down or sideways.
-KD, Saturday, September 6, 2008
Open Positions
Model Portfolio
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
% of
Portfolio |
Gain
(Loss) |
| Super Micro Computer, Inc. |
SMCI |
09/03/08 |
$10.71 |
$10.48 |
0.4 |
4.0% |
-2.1% |
| Bruker Corp. |
BRKR |
09/02/08 |
$16.37 |
$16.00 |
0.6 |
5.1% |
-2.3% |
| Solera Holdings Inc. |
SLH |
08/28/08 |
$30.01 |
$30.60 |
1.3 |
5.2% |
+1.9% |
| Sapient Corp. |
SAPE |
08/27/08 |
$9.25 |
$9.01 |
1.4 |
4.9% |
-2.6% |
| SkillSoft PLC |
SKIL |
08/22/08 |
$10.67 |
$10.94 |
2.1 |
5.2% |
+2.5% |
| Estee Lauder Cos Inc. |
EL |
08/18/08 |
$51.31 |
$52.77 |
2.7 |
5.2% |
+2.8% |
| Thoratec Corp. |
THOR |
08/05/08 |
$23.18 |
$26.22 |
4.6 |
6.9% |
+13.1% |
| Covidien, Ltd. |
COV |
08/05/08 |
$52.60 |
$52.96 |
4.6 |
6.1% |
+0.7% |
| Varian Medical Systems |
VAR |
07/24/08 |
$59.79 |
$62.84 |
6.3 |
6.6% |
+5.1% |
| Cash |
50.6% |
|
| Total |
100% |
|
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss)* |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
08/14/08 |
$105.10 |
09/05/08 |
$102.11 |
3.1 |
-2.8% |
| VisionChina Media Inc. |
VISN |
08/21/08 |
$19.22 |
09/05/08 |
$17.33 |
2.1 |
-9.8% |
| LDK Solar Co. Ltd. |
LDK |
08/26/08 |
$48.65 |
09/05/08 |
$43.52 |
1.4 |
-10.6% |
| Kendle International Inc. |
KNDL |
08/28/08 |
$50.63 |
09/05/08 |
$46.49 |
1.1 |
-8.2% |
| II-VI, Inc. |
IIVI |
08/05/08 |
$39.98 |
09/04/08 |
$41.88 |
4.3 |
+4.8% |
| PAREXEL International Corp. |
PRXL |
08/07/08 |
$32.62 |
09/04/08 |
$30.63 |
4.0 |
-6.1% |
| SunPower Corp. |
SPWR |
08/18/08 |
$89.00 |
09/03/08 |
$85.19 |
2.3 |
-4.3% |
| Woodward Governor |
WGOV |
07/22/08 |
$44.19 |
09/02/08 |
$45.87 |
6.0 |
+3.8% |
| Amphenol Corp. |
APH |
08/22/08 |
$48.98 |
08/25/08 |
$47.52 |
0.4 |
-3.0% |
| St. Jude Medical |
STJ |
07/16/08 |
$45.55 |
08/20/08 |
$46.03 |
5.0 |
+1.0% |
| Sapient Corp. |
SAPE |
08/08/08 |
$8.16 |
08/19/08 |
$8.70 |
1.6 |
+6.7% |
| Badger Meter Inc. |
BMI |
07/22/08 |
$55.68 |
08/18/08 |
$51.49 |
3.9 |
-7.5% |
| Amphenol Corp. |
APH |
08/06/08 |
$48.29 |
08/18/08 |
$50.15 |
1.7 |
+3.8% |
| Innophos Holdings Inc. |
IPHS |
08/06/08 |
$34.71 |
08/15/08 |
$33.70 |
1.3 |
-2.9% |
| Amedisys Inc. |
AMED |
07/17/08 |
$59.44 |
08/12/08 |
$54.31 |
3.7 |
-8.6% |
| Altera Corp. |
ALTR |
07/18/08 |
$21.45 |
08/12/08 |
$23.71 |
3.6 |
+10.5% |
| IBM |
IBM |
07/21/08 |
$129.38 |
08/12/08 |
$124.71 |
3.1 |
-3.6% |
| EZCORP, Inc. |
EZPW |
07/25/08 |
$17.71 |
08/11/08 |
$15.48 |
2.4 |
-12.6% |
| Titan International Inc. |
TWI |
07/31/08 |
$46.52 |
08/11/08 |
$40.35 |
1.6 |
-13.3% |
| Calgon Carbon Corp. |
CCC |
07/31/08 |
$19.69 |
08/11/08 |
$18.70 |
1.6 |
-5.0% |
| America's Car-Mart, Inc. |
CRMT |
07/03/08 |
$18.95 |
08/04/08 |
$19.34 |
4.6 |
+2.0% |
| Robbins & Myers Inc. |
RBN |
07/16/08 |
$50.30 |
08/04/08 |
$48.98 |
2.7 |
-2.6% |
| Amphenol Corp. |
APH |
07/17/08 |
$50.73 |
08/04/08 |
$46.32 |
2.6 |
-8.7% |
| Northwest Pipe Co. |
NWPX |
07/23/08 |
$56.53 |
08/04/08 |
$52.56 |
1.7 |
-7.0% |
| Tyler Technologies Inc. |
TYL |
07/25/08 |
$17.15 |
08/04/08 |
$15.37 |
1.4 |
-10.4% |
| VisionChina Media Inc. |
VISN |
07/30/08 |
$23.16 |
08/04/08 |
$19.37 |
0.7 |
-16.4% |
| ENGlobal Corp. |
ENG |
07/09/08 |
$13.92 |
07/31/08 |
$12.38 |
3.1 |
-11.1% |
| CIRCOR International Inc. |
CIR |
07/10/08 |
$62.06 |
07/31/08 |
$59.62 |
3.0 |
-3.9% |
| Plexus Corp. |
PLXS |
07/25/08 |
$30.28 |
07/30/08 |
$29.33 |
0.7 |
-3.1% |
| Balchem Corp. |
BCPC |
07/08/08 |
$25.56 |
07/29/08 |
$25.69 |
3.0 |
+0.5% |
| AeroVironment Inc. |
AVAV |
06/25/08 |
$28.28 |
07/24/08 |
$30.19 |
4.1 |
+6.7% |
| Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. |
FSYS |
07/09/08 |
$31.64 |
07/24/08 |
$37.36 |
2.1 |
+18.1% |
| Crown Holdings Inc. |
CCK |
07/18/08 |
$29.16 |
07/24/08 |
$27.65 |
0.9 |
-5.2% |
| Lufkin Industries Inc. |
LUFK |
07/17/08 |
$91.00 |
07/18/08 |
$83.84 |
0.1 |
-7.9% |
| SAIC, Inc. |
SAI |
06/04/08 |
$20.69 |
07/16/08 |
$19.05 |
6.0 |
-7.9% |
| AZZ Inc. |
AZZ |
06/27/08 |
$39.10 |
07/14/08 |
$44.25 |
2.4 |
+13.2% |
| ENGlobal Corp. |
ENG |
06/30/08 |
$14.31 |
07/07/08 |
$13.15 |
1.0 |
-8.1% |
| EnerSys |
ENS |
06/12/08 |
$34.73 |
07/02/08 |
$32.04 |
2.9 |
-7.8% |
| N. American Energy Partners |
NOA |
06/23/08 |
$22.13 |
07/02/08 |
$19.94 |
1.3 |
-9.9% |
| The Western Union Co. |
WU |
06/25/08 |
$26.01 |
07/02/08 |
$23.85 |
1.0 |
-8.3% |
| Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. |
FSYS |
05/13/08 |
$24.34 |
06/24/08 |
$35.29 |
6.0 |
+45.0% |
| Agrium Inc. |
AGU |
06/11/08 |
$99.96 |
06/24/08 |
$107.01 |
1.9 |
+7.0% |
| ReneSola Ltd |
SOL |
06/19/08 |
$22.01 |
06/24/08 |
$19.75 |
0.7 |
-10.3% |
| Gushan Environmental Energy |
GU |
06/19/08 |
$13.39 |
06/23/08 |
$11.90 |
0.6 |
-11.2% |
| IBM |
IBM |
04/29/08 |
$122.83 |
06/20/08 |
$122.50 |
7.4 |
-0.3% |
| Airgas Inc. |
ARG |
05/06/08 |
$55.94 |
06/20/08 |
$62.08 |
6.4 |
+11.0% |
| Activision Inc. |
ATVI |
05/09/08 |
$31.41 |
06/20/08 |
$35.55 |
6.0 |
+13.2% |
| Donaldson Co. Inc. |
DCI |
05/28/08 |
$49.37 |
06/20/08 |
$48.99 |
3.3 |
-0.8% |
| Monolithic Power Systems |
MPWR |
06/05/08 |
$26.48 |
06/11/08 |
$23.99 |
0.9 |
-9.4% |
| Zoll Medical Corp. |
ZOLL |
04/23/08 |
$31.32 |
06/09/08 |
$34.99 |
6.7 |
+11.7% |
| Western Digital Corp. |
WDC |
05/15/08 |
$33.71 |
06/09/08 |
$38.49 |
3.6 |
+14.2% |
| B M C Software |
BMC |
05/20/08 |
$38.02 |
06/09/08 |
$38.76 |
2.9 |
+1.9% |
| Pericom Semiconductor |
PSEM |
05/27/08 |
$18.31 |
06/09/08 |
$17.89 |
1.9 |
-2.3% |
| Himax Technologies |
HIMX |
05/28/08 |
$5.75 |
06/09/08 |
$5.85 |
1.7 |
+1.8% |
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means
that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com.
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in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it
with or sell it to others.
Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Contact Us
The Deen's List
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2008 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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