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The Deen's ListTM
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| Our Goal: To outperform the S&P through up markets and down.
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| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
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| Vol.6 #261 |
Saturday, August 16, 2008 6:2PM EDT |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Contact Us
Performance
|
Deen Capital |
S&P 500 |
| Year-to-date as of August 15, 2008 |
-10.5% * |
-10.4% |
| 12 months (Aug 15, 2007 to Aug 15, 2008) |
+5.5% * |
-5.9% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after all commissions and fees.
Click here for more performance data.
Click here for information on managed accounts.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BULLISH (since July 17, 2008)
Last week was not good for Deen Capital clients. We lost 3.5%, while the
S&P gained 0.2%. Two stocks in particular, AMED and IPHS, both had big
one-day drops which I found alarming in purely technical terms. I expect
events like this from time to time, but we've had a spate of them recently.
This is unusual, and it has taken a toll on our performance. Though we are
still outperforming handsomely on a 12-month basis (+5.5% vs. -5.9%), we can
no longer claim outperformance on a year-to-date basis.
So what about market conditions generally?
On the one hand, we have news last week that unemployment is rising and that
inflation is running hotter than expected. House prices continue to fall,
and the home foreclosure epidemic continues to widen. The bear market of
'07-'08 was brought on by all the high-risk home mortgages which became so
popular during the housing bubble. It is this housing / mortgage situation,
in my view, that is still keeping a lid on stocks.
On the other hand, the market actually rose Thursday and Friday after the
hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index number hit the wires. Inflation is
enemy #1 for stocks, so the positive response was quite surprising. This is
bullish. A market that can shrug off bad news is a market that wants to go
up. Also, oil prices fell again last week, as they have been since peaking
5 weeks ago. Last but not least, my all-important technical indicators are
overall bullish.
All things considered, then, I am cautiously bullish. I do want to keep
some cash on the sidelines, because this recent string of losses suggests
that there is more risk here than meets the eye.
My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
---------- -------
NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q): BULLISH BULLISH (1)
Last signal: BULLISH on Jul 17, 2008
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: +4.7 NEUTRAL +3.5 NEUTRAL (2)
Market Internals: 47% BULLISH 53% BULLISH (3)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Market's Overall Technical Rating: BULLISH BULLISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 96:4 62:38
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ
Composite.
(2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my
recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number
means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means
they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be
bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator
bullish.
(3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above
their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish,
bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up,
down or sideways.
-KD, Friday, August 15, 2008
Open Positions
Model Portfolio
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
% of
Portfolio |
Gain
(Loss) |
| Ebix Inc. |
EBIX |
08/14/08 |
$105.10 |
$105.21 |
0.3 |
5.0% |
+0.1% |
| Sapient Corp. |
SAPE |
08/08/08 |
$8.16 |
$8.78 |
1.1 |
5.5% |
+7.6% |
| PAREXEL International Corp. |
PRXL |
08/07/08 |
$32.62 |
$32.69 |
1.3 |
5.0% |
+0.2% |
| Amphenol Corp. |
APH |
08/06/08 |
$48.29 |
$51.95 |
1.4 |
5.3% |
+7.6% |
| Thoratec Corp. |
THOR |
08/05/08 |
$23.18 |
$24.21 |
1.6 |
6.2% |
+4.5% |
| II-VI, Inc. |
IIVI |
08/05/08 |
$39.98 |
$46.99 |
1.6 |
5.8% |
+17.5% |
| Covidien, Ltd. |
COV |
08/05/08 |
$52.60 |
$53.88 |
1.6 |
6.0% |
+2.4% |
| Varian Medical Systems |
VAR |
07/24/08 |
$59.79 |
$64.97 |
3.3 |
6.6% |
+8.7% |
| Woodward Governor |
WGOV |
07/22/08 |
$44.19 |
$46.73 |
3.6 |
5.4% |
+5.7% |
| Badger Meter Inc. |
BMI |
07/22/08 |
$55.68 |
$53.01 |
3.6 |
4.9% |
-4.8% |
| St. Jude Medical |
STJ |
07/16/08 |
$45.55 |
$46.16 |
4.4 |
6.3% |
+1.3% |
| Cash |
37.8% |
|
| Total |
100% |
|
* Buy prices shown are net after commissions and fees.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss)* |
| Innophos Holdings Inc. |
IPHS |
08/06/08 |
$34.71 |
08/15/08 |
$33.70 |
1.3 |
-2.9% |
| Amedisys Inc. |
AMED |
07/17/08 |
$59.44 |
08/12/08 |
$54.31 |
3.7 |
-8.6% |
| Altera Corp. |
ALTR |
07/18/08 |
$21.45 |
08/12/08 |
$23.71 |
3.6 |
+10.5% |
| IBM |
IBM |
07/21/08 |
$129.38 |
08/12/08 |
$124.71 |
3.1 |
-3.6% |
| EZCORP, Inc. |
EZPW |
07/25/08 |
$17.71 |
08/11/08 |
$15.48 |
2.4 |
-12.6% |
| Titan International Inc. |
TWI |
07/31/08 |
$46.52 |
08/11/08 |
$40.35 |
1.6 |
-13.3% |
| Calgon Carbon Corp. |
CCC |
07/31/08 |
$19.69 |
08/11/08 |
$18.70 |
1.6 |
-5.0% |
| America's Car-Mart, Inc. |
CRMT |
07/03/08 |
$18.95 |
08/04/08 |
$19.34 |
4.6 |
+2.0% |
| Robbins & Myers Inc. |
RBN |
07/16/08 |
$50.30 |
08/04/08 |
$48.98 |
2.7 |
-2.6% |
| Amphenol Corp. |
APH |
07/17/08 |
$50.73 |
08/04/08 |
$46.32 |
2.6 |
-8.7% |
| Northwest Pipe Co. |
NWPX |
07/23/08 |
$56.53 |
08/04/08 |
$52.56 |
1.7 |
-7.0% |
| Tyler Technologies Inc. |
TYL |
07/25/08 |
$17.15 |
08/04/08 |
$15.37 |
1.4 |
-10.4% |
| VisionChina Media Inc. |
VISN |
07/30/08 |
$23.16 |
08/04/08 |
$19.37 |
0.7 |
-16.4% |
| ENGlobal Corp. |
ENG |
07/09/08 |
$13.92 |
07/31/08 |
$12.38 |
3.1 |
-11.1% |
| CIRCOR International Inc. |
CIR |
07/10/08 |
$62.06 |
07/31/08 |
$59.62 |
3.0 |
-3.9% |
| Plexus Corp. |
PLXS |
07/25/08 |
$30.28 |
07/30/08 |
$29.33 |
0.7 |
-3.1% |
| Balchem Corp. |
BCPC |
07/08/08 |
$25.56 |
07/29/08 |
$25.69 |
3.0 |
+0.5% |
| AeroVironment Inc. |
AVAV |
06/25/08 |
$28.28 |
07/24/08 |
$30.19 |
4.1 |
+6.7% |
| Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. |
FSYS |
07/09/08 |
$31.64 |
07/24/08 |
$37.36 |
2.1 |
+18.1% |
| Crown Holdings Inc. |
CCK |
07/18/08 |
$29.16 |
07/24/08 |
$27.65 |
0.9 |
-5.2% |
| Lufkin Industries Inc. |
LUFK |
07/17/08 |
$91.00 |
07/18/08 |
$83.84 |
0.1 |
-7.9% |
| SAIC, Inc. |
SAI |
06/04/08 |
$20.69 |
07/16/08 |
$19.05 |
6.0 |
-7.9% |
| AZZ Inc. |
AZZ |
06/27/08 |
$39.10 |
07/14/08 |
$44.25 |
2.4 |
+13.2% |
| ENGlobal Corp. |
ENG |
06/30/08 |
$14.31 |
07/07/08 |
$13.15 |
1.0 |
-8.1% |
| EnerSys |
ENS |
06/12/08 |
$34.73 |
07/02/08 |
$32.04 |
2.9 |
-7.8% |
| N. American Energy Partners |
NOA |
06/23/08 |
$22.13 |
07/02/08 |
$19.94 |
1.3 |
-9.9% |
| The Western Union Co. |
WU |
06/25/08 |
$26.01 |
07/02/08 |
$23.85 |
1.0 |
-8.3% |
| Fuel Systems Solutions Inc. |
FSYS |
05/13/08 |
$24.34 |
06/24/08 |
$35.29 |
6.0 |
+45.0% |
| Agrium Inc. |
AGU |
06/11/08 |
$99.96 |
06/24/08 |
$107.01 |
1.9 |
+7.0% |
| ReneSola Ltd |
SOL |
06/19/08 |
$22.01 |
06/24/08 |
$19.75 |
0.7 |
-10.3% |
| Gushan Environmental Energy |
GU |
06/19/08 |
$13.39 |
06/23/08 |
$11.90 |
0.6 |
-11.2% |
| IBM |
IBM |
04/29/08 |
$122.83 |
06/20/08 |
$122.50 |
7.4 |
-0.3% |
| Airgas Inc. |
ARG |
05/06/08 |
$55.94 |
06/20/08 |
$62.08 |
6.4 |
+11.0% |
| Activision Inc. |
ATVI |
05/09/08 |
$31.41 |
06/20/08 |
$35.55 |
6.0 |
+13.2% |
| Donaldson Co. Inc. |
DCI |
05/28/08 |
$49.37 |
06/20/08 |
$48.99 |
3.3 |
-0.8% |
| Monolithic Power Systems |
MPWR |
06/05/08 |
$26.48 |
06/11/08 |
$23.99 |
0.9 |
-9.4% |
| Zoll Medical Corp. |
ZOLL |
04/23/08 |
$31.32 |
06/09/08 |
$34.99 |
6.7 |
+11.7% |
| Western Digital Corp. |
WDC |
05/15/08 |
$33.71 |
06/09/08 |
$38.49 |
3.6 |
+14.2% |
| B M C Software |
BMC |
05/20/08 |
$38.02 |
06/09/08 |
$38.76 |
2.9 |
+1.9% |
| Pericom Semiconductor |
PSEM |
05/27/08 |
$18.31 |
06/09/08 |
$17.89 |
1.9 |
-2.3% |
| Himax Technologies |
HIMX |
05/28/08 |
$5.75 |
06/09/08 |
$5.85 |
1.7 |
+1.8% |
| Badger Meter Inc. |
BMI |
04/16/08 |
$48.23 |
06/06/08 |
$49.73 |
7.3 |
+3.1% |
| Wabtec |
WAB |
04/25/08 |
$41.99 |
06/06/08 |
$45.67 |
6.0 |
+8.8% |
| GrafTech International Ltd. |
GTI |
05/01/08 |
$21.17 |
06/06/08 |
$26.73 |
5.1 |
+26.3% |
| Fluor Corp. |
FLR |
05/15/08 |
$189.37 |
06/06/08 |
$183.83 |
3.1 |
-2.9% |
| Woodward Governor |
WGOV |
05/21/08 |
$39.18 |
06/06/08 |
$38.79 |
2.3 |
-1.0% |
| Metalico Inc. |
MEA |
05/14/08 |
$15.67 |
06/04/08 |
$14.72 |
3.0 |
-6.1% |
| Metalico Inc. |
MEA |
05/22/08 |
$15.61 |
06/04/08 |
$14.72 |
1.9 |
-5.7% |
| Syniverse Holdings Inc. |
SVR |
05/07/08 |
$20.25 |
06/03/08 |
$21.61 |
3.9 |
+6.7% |
| Powell Industries Inc. |
POWL |
05/08/08 |
$47.14 |
06/02/08 |
$52.53 |
3.6 |
+11.4% |
| Harris Corp. |
HRS |
05/30/08 |
$66.20 |
06/02/08 |
$55.53 |
0.4 |
-16.1% |
| AMETEK Inc. |
AME |
04/21/08 |
$49.65 |
05/23/08 |
$48.98 |
4.6 |
-1.3% |
| Canadian Solar Inc. |
CSIQ |
05/15/08 |
$42.83 |
05/22/08 |
$37.88 |
1.0 |
-11.6% |
| Research In Motion |
RIMM |
04/08/08 |
$120.33 |
05/21/08 |
$133.92 |
6.1 |
+11.3% |
| Google, Inc. |
GOOG |
04/18/08 |
$532.06 |
05/21/08 |
$556.66 |
4.7 |
+4.6% |
| AsiaInfo Holdings Inc. |
ASIA |
05/06/08 |
$13.47 |
05/21/08 |
$12.55 |
2.1 |
-6.8% |
| Teledyne Tech Inc. |
TDY |
04/24/08 |
$57.46 |
05/20/08 |
$56.26 |
3.7 |
-2.1% |
| Priceline.com Inc. |
PCLN |
05/09/08 |
$139.96 |
05/19/08 |
$129.32 |
1.4 |
-7.6% |
* Buy and sell prices shown are net after commissions and fees. This means
that the gains/losses shown are also net after transaction expenses.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com.
To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or
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This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time,
it is also free to all interested parties.
Privacy Policy
Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held
in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it
with or sell it to others.
Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Contact Us
The Deen's List
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(800) 353-4990
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2008 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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