Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Weekly Status Report: Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Market Stance: BULLISH (since November 28, 2007)I turned bullish late Wednesday on the strength of a powerful double-bottom chart pattern in the S&P 500. My three indicators are still overall bearish (two bearish, one bullish), but they are improving. The one bullish indicator is the performance of my recent stock picks, and this, in my view, is the most important of the three. And so, in my view, the market probably turned the corner last week. We had a big rally, both for Deen Capital accounts and for the market as a whole. But we under-performed. The S&P jumped 2.8%, while the average Deen Capital account gained "only" 1.9%. Under-performance is to be expected on a bearish-to-bullish transition week, as we start out in a low-risk high-cash position, thereby missing at least some portion of the first day(s) of the new up move. Since we also missed a lot of the big November correction, I find this entirely acceptable. We missed more downside than upside, so my risk management strategy is working exactly as intended. For the entire month of November, Deen Capital accounts were down 3.4% on average, which compares favorably with a loss of 4.4% in the S&P 500. Going into next week, we're about 70% in stocks, and this is enough to make our accounts more volatile than the S&P. We're now market neutral to just slightly aggressive. This means I would expect to start outperforming on the upside next week -- if the rally continues. That's a big if. I am sticking my neck way out here by going against my indicators. They are still overall bearish, and I am therefore going to be quick to retreat back to a low-risk high-cash (bearish) posture if the market falters. I'll be watching my indicators closely. They improved every day last week except Monday. My bullishness hinges on their continued improvement. My Three Primary Technical Indicators:
Prior week Now
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NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q): BEARISH BEARISH (1)
Last signal: BEARISH on Nov 1, 2007
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: -4.0 BEARISH +7.4 BULLISH (2)
Market Internals: 22% BEARISH 31% BEARISH (3)
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Market's Overall Technical Rating: BEARISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (average): 39:61 70:30
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ Composite. (2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my recent stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number means my recent stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator bullish. (3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish, bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up, down or sideways. -KD, November 30, 2007
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. The Deen's List Copyright © 2007 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||