Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Weekly Status Report: Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Market Stance: BULLISH (since November 8, 2006)Stocks were down across the board last week, with losses ranging from -0.3% for the S&P 500 to -0.7% for the Dow to -1.9% for the NASDAQ. Given that Deen Capital managed accounts are very aggressively postured, and statistically more than twice as volatile as the S&P 500, I consider it very good news indeed that our managed account loss for the week was slight, in the neighborhood of -0.3%. This is a very minor setback under any conditions, and especially so in a week like this. It appears that my stock-picking methods are working quite well right now. This can also be seen in my "Performance of Recent Stock Picks" Index (one of my three technical indicators), which actually improved last week and is now an extremely strong +8.0. The big question is this: Have we just seen an important change of trend from up to down, or is this just a pause in an ongoing rally? On the one hand, my other two indicators turned bearish last week, so that, overall, my indicators are now bearish. This alone is sufficient reason for me to turn bearish and retreat to the safety of cash. On the other hand, as I mentioned, my stock picks are holding up quite well. And then there is the question of volume. When the market makes an important top (bottom), there is almost always at least one big down (up) day on very heavy volume announcing the change of primary direction. We're not really seeing that here. We had only one big down day (which I define as a 1% or more drop in the NASDAQ) last week -- Monday -- when the NASDAQ shed 54 points, or 2.2%. Monday's NASDAQ volume, at 2.01 billion shares, was heavy, but not all that heavy. Eight other days in November had heavier volume. For the moment, then, I am hanging in there. But I am on the brink of turning bearish. My three primary technical indicators:
Prior week Now
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NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q): BULLISH BEARISH (1)
Last signal: BEARISH on Nov 27, 2006
Performance of Recent Stock Picks: +7.1 BULLISH +8.0 BULLISH (2)
Market Internals: 76% BULLISH 69% BEARISH (3)
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Overall Rating: BULLISH BEARISH
Stocks:Cash ratio (Ken's IRA): 76:24 89:11
(1) A proprietary computer model based on technical analysis of the NASDAQ Composite. (2) This number (from -10 to +10) is based on the performance of ALL my stock picks (I actually buy only some of these). A positive number means my stock picks are generally rising; a negative number means they are generally falling. Even so, I consider a reading below +3.1 to be bearish. I require a reading of +5.6 or better to call this indicator bullish. (3) This is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) which are trading above their 50-day moving average. The rating of this percentage (bullish, bearish or neutral) is based on which way it's been moving recently -- up, down or sideways. -KD, December 2, 2006
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. The Deen's List Copyright © 2006 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||