Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market Stance: BULLISH (since July 28, 2006)Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Bought Research in Motion (RIMM)
* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Today, Thursday, October 5, 2006, I bought RIMM, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. Research In Motion Limited designs, manufactures, and markets wireless solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market. The Company provides platforms and solutions for access to email, phone, SMS messaging, Internet, and Intranet-based applications. This stock is a component of the NASDAQ 100 Index. Here's why I bought this stock: + Enthusiastic Market Reaction to Earnings Surprise: Last Friday, the stock soared 19% to $102.65 on about 8 times average daily volume. This was in reaction to a strong earnings surprise. Earnings for the quarter ended Aug 31 came in at 77c per diluted share (vs 61c last year and First Call 71c). Revenue was up 34% to $658.5 million (First Call $648.4 million). + Breakout: The price movement last Friday represents a breakout from a trading range that dates back to early 2000. + Last Friday, the stock met the stringent technical buy criteria outlined in my Research Update of June 26, 2004: http://www.deencapital.com/newslett/2004/040626.129.html#3 . + Excellent recent sales growth. Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +53%, +39%, +35%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Aug 31, +34% to $658.5 million. + Mostly excellent recent earnings-per-share growth. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Nov 05 vs Nov 04: 71c vs 58c Feb 06 vs Feb 05: 65c vs 71c May 06 vs May 05: 70c vs 56c Aug 06 vs Aug 05: 77c vs 61c + Rising earnings-per-share estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for FY 07 (Feb) is $3.27, revised upward from $3.00 90 days ago (and up from FY 06 actual earnings of $2.53); and the consensus estimate for FY 08 is $4.30, revised upward from $3.79 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 25.6 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 21%, the stock is reasonably priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least 3c above estimates in each of the past three quarters, including the just-reported quarter cited above, which was 6c above. + The company's industry group ("Telecom - Wireless Equip") is ranked #20 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally rising over recent weeks and months. + The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend. + This purchase increases our exposure to large-cap stocks, which have lately outperformed small-caps. I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factors: - I missed the ideal buy opportunity earlier this week, when it was trading around $100. - The company has said that an internal probe of its past accounting practices for employee stock options may lead to a restatement of some prior results. I hesitate to look the other way on this one, but in the end I chose to do so because the technical buy signal here is exceptionally strong. -KD, October 5, 2006 Sold Diodes Inc. (DIOD) -5.0% (after commissions)
* The net buy (sell) price is the total net cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. I sold this stock in the final hour today, as it was poised to close below my hard stop-loss price, which I had set at $41.90. -KD, October 5, 2006
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. ** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. Ken Deen Copyright © 2006 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||