Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Weekly Status Report: Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Market Stance: BEARISH (since October 7, 2005)Last week was mildly constructive for Deen Capital managed accounts, both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500. The market may, just may, have put in a bottom. My three technical indicators remain bearish overall, but they improved significantly, and one of them, my NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q), gave a bullish signal. Let's take a closer look at these technical indicators: + My NASDAQ Timing Model did a flip-flop, which I interpret as bullish. Permit me to explain. This Model had been continuously bullish since July 8. It turned bearish at Tuesday's close, then bullish 24 hours later. What's up with that? This Model attempts to call important market turns within days of the absolute top or bottom. It missed an important top in early August, and Tuesday's bearish signal was two-and-a-half months late. It was a capitulation. Wednesday's bullish call, on the other hand, is saying that the recent low on October 12 (NASDAQ 2037) may actually represent an important bottom -- a market turning point. - My Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index improved from -3.8 a week ago to +2.4 now (scale -10 to +10). This is still bearish, but it's a dramatic improvement, all the more so since the Dow and the S&P were down. (I view +3.1 or better as neutral, and +5.6 or better as bullish.) - Only 30% of stocks ($8 and up) are now trading above their 50-day moving average. That's a slight improvement from 28% a week ago, but still decidedly bearish. We have conflicting cross-currents now and a basically indecisive market. On the one hand, we have increasing signs of inflation. Last week, this took the form of higher-than-expected PPI and CPI numbers. Inflation is enemy #1 for stocks. On the other hand, corporate earnings growth is generally excellent. We're in the thick of earnings reporting season now, and, so far, third quarter earnings for the S&P 500 are running 15.8% better than a year ago. That's a robust growth pace, and beats analysts' estimates. The outlook for fourth quarter earnings is similarly strong. The most encouraging thing about last week, from my point-of-view, is that growth and tech stocks (and the NASDAQ generally) were up, even though the S&P and Dow were down. If this is an early sign of a new trend, then we just might have an excellent finish to 2005. I increased our exposure to stocks last week, but still within the parameters of my still-bearish market stance. The volatility of Deen Capital managed accounts remains statistically less than the S&P 500. This means we are still conservatively postured, with lots of cash on the sidelines. -KD, October 22, 2005
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
Ken Deen Copyright © 2005 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||