Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Weekly Status Report: Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Market Stance: BEARISH (since August 10, 2005)What effect will the Gulf Coast disaster have on the stock market? I'm not going to make a prediction about that. Rather, I will observe. And what I observe so far is encouraging. As it often does, the stock market is defying all logic. Prior to Katrina, since a top in early August, the market had been trending lower. Now, against the backdrop of this tragedy of unprecedented proportions, the market appears, very tentatively, to be regaining its footing. It was a solid up week, and, in spite of our heavily cash position, we basically kept pace with the S&P 500. My three technical indicators are bullish, neutral, and bearish. Overall, that's neutral, and an improvement over one week ago, when they were overall bearish (one bullish, two bearish). I'm still maintaining a bearish stance, and still making sure that our accounts are statistically less volatile than the S&P 500 -- but just barely. After a few buys last week, our account volatility has risen to the point where it is now very close to the S&P. Now, for a closer look at those three technical indicators: My NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q) remains on its July 8 bullish signal. This indicator suggests that the August correction was not significant. There's a strong case to be made for that view. The NASDAQ, after all, has remained above its July 8 level ever since that signal. The August correction has been relatively mild. My Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index is the one indicator that changed classification over the past week, improving from bearish to neutral. It improved from -1.3 to +3.6 (scale -10 to +10). My third indicator is the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) trading above their 50-day moving average. This is now 54%, an improvement over 50% one week ago, but still bearish, by my reckoning. Why is 54% bearish? Here's two answers, one in plain English and one technical. In tech-speak, I track this number daily and then take a 21-day and a 50-day moving average. The present reading, 54%, is below both of these moving averages (now 56% and 68%), and therefore bearish. In plain English, this percentage, in spite of last week's improvement, has been generally falling recently. What's important is not the number itself, but its direction of change -- whether it is rising or falling. It rose over the past week, but not enough. The trend still appears to be downward. But it has become a close call. Just a slight improvement next week would tip the scales, and this indicator would become neutral. In summary, the market improved last week, my indicators are now overall neutral, and close to turning bullish. -KD, September 3, 2005
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
Ken Deen Copyright © 2005 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||