Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market Stance: BULLISH (since December 15, 2004)Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Bought Fisher Scientific Int'l Inc. (FSH)
* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Today, Thursday, December 30, 2004, I bought FSH, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. Fisher Scientific provides products and services to the global scientific research and United States clinical laboratory markets. Its customers include pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, colleges and universities, medical research institutions, hospitals and reference labs and quality control, process control and research and development laboratories. For more information, visit their website. Here's why I bought this stock: + Breakout: On Dec 15, the stock broke out of an 8-month trading range. trading range. Since then, the stock has been trading generally higher. Though I missed the ideal entry point, the stock price has advanced only about 4% from the top of the old trading range, which will be my stop- loss price. + The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend. + Excellent and accelerating recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +19%, +21%, +22%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, +42% to $1,263 million (i.e., $1.263 billion). + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 03 vs Dec 02: 59c vs 45c Mar 04 vs Mar 03: 60c vs 48c Jun 04 vs Jun 03: 74c vs 61c Sep 04 vs Sep 03: 75c vs 68c + Strong estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2004 is $2.84, a 20% increase from 2003 actual earnings of $2.36; and the consensus estimate for 2005 is $3.58, a further 26% increase. + Valuation: At 17.4 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 17.5%, the stock is attractively priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least a penny ahead of estimates in each of the past four quarters. + The company's industry group ("Medical - Systems / Equipment") is ranked #48 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally rising over recent weeks and months. I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factors: - Volume on the recent breakout was not particularly heavy. - Estimates for this year and next year have fallen just slightly over the past 90 days. For 2004, the First Call consensus has dropped by 2c from $2.86 to $2.84. For 2005, the consensus has dropped a penny from $3.59 to $3.58. These are still very good numbers. -KD, December 30, 2004
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. ** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
Ken Deen Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||