The Deen's ListTM
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.2 #308 Thursday, December 23, 2004 10:10AM ET

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BULLISH (since December 15, 2004)

  Contents

Year-To-Date Performance
Bought Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers

  Year-To-Date Performance

Year-To-Date as of December 22, 2004

Deen Capital+3.9%*
S&P 500+8.8%

* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm.

  Bought Garmin Ltd. (GRMN)

Net buy price in managed accounts* $59.98
Most recent close (Dec 22) $59.98
Net change (based on net buy price) +$0.00
Today's volume as of 9:55am ET 275,231 ($16.5 million)
Average daily volume 634,300 ($38.0 million)
This year's earnings-per-share $1.99 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share $2.27 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings 26.4 (est)
Earnings growth rate, next 5 years 15.0% per year (est)
Web site http://www.garmin.com

* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

Today, Thursday, December 23, 2004, I bought GRMN, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. Garmin Ltd. is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing and marketing of navigation, communications and information devices, most of which are enabled by Global Positioning System (GPS) technology.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ Breakout: Yesterday, Dec 22, the stock broke out of an 11-month trading range into new all-time high territory. Volume was moderately heavy.

+ Excellent and accelerating recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +27%, +28%, +32%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, +43% to $193.6 million.

+ Mostly excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Dec 03 vs Dec 02: 50c vs 41c
Mar 04 vs Mar 03: 32c vs 38c
Jun 04 vs Jun 03: 52c vs 43c
Sep 04 vs Sep 03: 62c vs 32c

+ Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2004 is $1.99, up from $1.83 90 days ago (and up from 2003 actual earnings of $1.64); and the consensus estimate for 2005 is $2.27, up from $2.12 90 days ago.

+ History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least 2c ahead of estimates in three of the past four quarters, and 14c ahead in the most recently reported quarter ended Sep 30.

+ The company's industry group ("Telecommunications - Wireless Equipment") is ranked #25 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally rising over recent weeks and months.

I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factor:

- Valuation: At 26 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 15%, the stock might be considered just a bit pricey.

-KD, December 23, 2004

  Open Positions

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
Gain
(Loss)
Garmin Ltd.GRMN12/23/04$59.98$60.230.0+0.4%
Lennar Corp. Cl ALEN12/22/04$55.58$55.130.1-0.8%
Intervoice-Brite Inc.INTV12/22/04$13.96$14.060.1+0.7%
Insteel Industries Inc.IIIN12/22/04$19.29$19.380.1+0.5%
Nextel Partners Inc.NXTP12/21/04$19.08$19.260.3+1.0%
Infocrossing Inc.IFOX12/21/04$17.45$17.200.3-1.4%
Aleris International Inc.ARS12/20/04$14.69$17.000.4+15.7%
Armor Holdings Inc.AH12/17/04$46.40$47.900.9+3.2%
Sirenza MicrodevicesSMDI12/16/04$5.91$6.541.0+10.7%
Olympic Steel Inc.ZEUS12/15/04$23.95$27.551.1+15.0%
IXYS Corp.SYXI12/15/04$10.15$9.901.1-2.5%
Standard Pacific Corp.SPF12/14/04$61.78$63.811.3+3.3%
Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc.RSTI12/13/04$38.28$40.801.4+6.6%
Average0.6+4.0%

* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

  Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter.

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  Privacy Policy

Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others.

  Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

 

Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com

Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc.