| The Deen's ListTM |
| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com) |
| Vol.2 #303 |
Sunday, December 19, 2004 |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Year-To-Date Performance
Year-To-Date as of December 17, 2004 |
| Deen Capital | +1.8% | * |
| S&P 500 | +7.4% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees.
Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm.
For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BULLISH (since December 15, 2004)
Last week, I returned to a bullish stance, as it seemed that my bearish
call of December 7 was probably a mistake. I had a quick-reversal bullish
signal from my NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q), and also my
Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index returned to "green light"
territory late Tuesday. Accordingly, I did some buying last week, though
we so far have remained mostly in cash.
The balance of the technical evidence at this time favors a bullish
stance, in my view, though not by much. It's a tough call.
On the bullish side:
+ My NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q), as I said, gave a bullish signal last
week on December 14, reversing its December 7 bearish signal.
+ My Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index (PRSPI) improved last week
from +4.0 to +5.3.
+ The NASDAQ closed at multi-year highs on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the bearish side:
- When the NASDAQ closed at multi-year highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, it
did so by only a tiny margin. It closed just 6 points above the January
peak on Tuesday, and 9 points above on Wednesday. That's less than half a
percent. Then, Thursday and Friday, it fell by a cumulative 27 points, on
expanding volume.
- My Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index, which was in "green light"
territory on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, slipped just barely below
the green threshold Friday. It's now near the top end of the "yellow
light" range.
- The three heaviest volume days on the NASDAQ since December 6 have been
down days. One was December 7, which I thought might have been a major
market turning point (I turned bearish), and the other two were Thursday
and Friday. On all three days, the NASDAQ was retreating in price on
heavy volume from a key resistance level near 2150. (This is a "key
resistance level" because it corresponds to the January peak.) This is
toppy behavior.
That "double-top" scenario I wrote about when I turned bearish on
December 7 may, after all, be upon us. It's quite possible.
-KD, December 19, 2004
Open Positions
| Company Name |
Stock Symbol |
Buy Date |
NetBuy Price* |
Current Price |
Weeks Held |
Gain (Loss) |
| Armor Holdings Inc. | AH | 12/17/04 | $46.40 | $46.18 | 0.0 | -0.5% |
| Sirenza Microdevices | SMDI | 12/16/04 | $5.91 | $5.93 | 0.1 | +0.4% |
| Olympic Steel Inc. | ZEUS | 12/15/04 | $23.95 | $25.18 | 0.3 | +5.1% |
| IXYS Corp. | SYXI | 12/15/04 | $10.15 | $10.30 | 0.3 | +1.5% |
| Standard Pacific Corp. | SPF | 12/14/04 | $61.78 | $63.06 | 0.4 | +2.1% |
| Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc. | RSTI | 12/13/04 | $38.28 | $40.83 | 0.6 | +6.7% | | Average | 0.3 | +2.5% |
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for
all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock Symbol |
Buy Date |
NetBuy Price* |
Sell Date |
NetSell Price* |
Weeks Held |
Gain (Loss) |
| palmOne, Inc. | PLMO | 12/13/04 | $43.91 | 12/17/04 | $33.45 | 0.6 | -23.8% |
| KongZhong Corp. | KONG | 12/07/04 | $11.17 | 12/16/04 | $9.23 | 1.3 | -17.4% |
| KongZhong Corp. | KONG | 12/14/04 | $10.00 | 12/16/04 | $9.23 | 0.3 | -7.6% |
| PC Mall, Inc. | MALL | 12/15/04 | $21.59 | 12/16/04 | $20.54 | 0.1 | -4.8% |
| Monarch Casino & Resort | MCRI | 10/27/04 | $27.11 | 12/09/04 | $33.45 | 6.1 | +23.4% |
| NCI Building Systems Inc. | NCS | 11/16/04 | $34.72 | 12/09/04 | $37.63 | 3.3 | +8.4% |
| Bluegreen Corp. | BXG | 11/23/04 | $14.64 | 12/09/04 | $17.41 | 2.3 | +18.9% |
| China Yuchai Int'l Ltd. | CYD | 12/02/04 | $17.51 | 12/09/04 | $16.13 | 1.0 | -7.9% |
| Digital River Inc. | DRIV | 09/13/04 | $27.42 | 12/08/04 | $41.96 | 12.3 | +53.0% |
| Infocrossing Inc. | IFOX | 11/17/04 | $15.05 | 12/08/04 | $16.75 | 3.0 | +11.3% |
| Innovative Solutions | ISSC | 11/18/04 | $29.02 | 12/08/04 | $29.68 | 2.9 | +2.2% |
| Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc. | RSTI | 08/24/04 | $28.28 | 12/07/04 | $37.55 | 15.0 | +32.8% |
| DHB Industries Inc. | DHB | 09/24/04 | $13.38 | 12/07/04 | $17.99 | 10.6 | +34.5% |
| Charles River Assoc Inc. | CRAI | 09/30/04 | $38.19 | 12/07/04 | $43.88 | 9.7 | +14.9% |
| M.D.C. Holdings Inc. | MDC | 10/12/04 | $72.28 | 12/07/04 | $76.40 | 8.0 | +5.7% |
| Sigmatel Inc. | SGTL | 10/21/04 | $28.28 | 12/07/04 | $34.87 | 6.7 | +23.3% |
| Nanometrics Inc. | NANO | 11/02/04 | $14.71 | 12/07/04 | $16.52 | 5.0 | +12.2% |
| NETGEAR, Inc. | NTGR | 11/03/04 | $13.68 | 12/07/04 | $17.29 | 4.9 | +26.4% |
| Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc. | RSTI | 11/10/04 | $37.22 | 12/07/04 | $37.55 | 3.9 | +0.9% |
| Excel Maritime Carriers | EXM | 11/23/04 | $27.91 | 12/07/04 | $32.81 | 2.0 | +17.6% |
| Sify Ltd. ADR | SIFY | 11/24/04 | $6.88 | 12/07/04 | $6.29 | 1.9 | -8.6% |
| United Therapeutics Corp. | UTHR | 11/29/04 | $43.54 | 12/07/04 | $42.32 | 1.1 | -2.8% |
| Accredited Home Lenders | LEND | 11/30/04 | $42.93 | 12/07/04 | $44.91 | 1.0 | +4.6% |
| DHB Industries Inc. | DHB | 12/01/04 | $18.60 | 12/07/04 | $17.99 | 0.9 | -3.3% |
| Navarre Corp. | NAVR | 09/21/04 | $16.69 | 12/06/04 | $15.69 | 10.9 | -6.0% |
| Navarre Corp. | NAVR | 10/13/04 | $14.72 | 12/06/04 | $15.69 | 7.7 | +6.6% |
| Navarre Corp. | NAVR | 10/22/04 | $14.99 | 12/06/04 | $15.69 | 6.4 | +4.7% |
| Navarre Corp. | NAVR | 11/12/04 | $16.26 | 12/06/04 | $15.69 | 3.4 | -3.5% |
| Diodes Inc. | DIOD | 10/01/04 | $27.19 | 12/01/04 | $23.97 | 8.7 | -11.8% |
| Diodes Inc. | DIOD | 10/19/04 | $25.65 | 12/01/04 | $23.97 | 6.1 | -6.6% |
| LCA Vision Inc. | LCAV | 10/26/04 | $27.58 | 12/01/04 | $33.67 | 5.1 | +22.1% |
| Diodes Inc. | DIOD | 11/26/04 | $24.77 | 12/01/04 | $23.97 | 0.7 | -3.2% |
| Littelfuse Inc. | LFUS | 11/08/04 | $38.19 | 11/30/04 | $38.82 | 3.1 | +1.6% |
| MicroStrategy Inc. | MSTR | 10/27/04 | $63.30 | 11/29/04 | $64.55 | 4.7 | +2.0% |
| Quiksilver Inc. | ZQK | 09/13/04 | $25.73 | 11/22/04 | $28.62 | 10.0 | +11.2% |
| F5 Networks Inc. | FFIV | 10/27/04 | $40.08 | 11/22/04 | $39.90 | 3.7 | -0.4% |
| Amedisys Inc. | AMED | 09/15/04 | $28.84 | 11/17/04 | $31.63 | 9.0 | +9.7% |
| Dawson Geophysical Co. | DWSN | 09/29/04 | $20.70 | 11/17/04 | $21.13 | 7.0 | +2.1% |
| Amedisys Inc. | AMED | 10/21/04 | $31.28 | 11/17/04 | $31.63 | 3.9 | +1.1% |
| Ventiv Health Inc. | VTIV | 11/08/04 | $19.25 | 11/17/04 | $17.58 | 1.3 | -8.7% |
| Dawson Geophysical Co. | DWSN | 11/15/04 | $23.64 | 11/17/04 | $21.13 | 0.3 | -10.6% |
| Dawson Geophysical Co. | DWSN | 11/16/04 | $23.34 | 11/17/04 | $21.13 | 0.1 | -9.4% |
| InfoSpace Inc. | INSP | 10/26/04 | $53.99 | 11/16/04 | $49.59 | 3.0 | -8.1% |
| MarketWatch Inc. | MKTW | 10/28/04 | $14.01 | 11/16/04 | $17.89 | 2.7 | +27.7% |
| MarketWatch Inc. | MKTW | 10/29/04 | $13.33 | 11/16/04 | $17.89 | 2.6 | +34.2% |
| Ctrip.com International | CTRP | 11/01/04 | $41.21 | 11/11/04 | $45.29 | 1.4 | +9.9% |
| Carpenter Technology Corp. | CRS | 10/26/04 | $48.51 | 11/05/04 | $50.78 | 1.4 | +4.7% |
| Ditech Communications Corp. | DITC | 10/21/04 | $26.66 | 11/04/04 | $15.07 | 2.0 | -43.5% |
| Ditech Communications Corp. | DITC | 11/03/04 | $22.75 | 11/04/04 | $15.07 | 0.1 | -33.7% |
| VSE Corp. | VSEC | 10/18/04 | $28.51 | 11/02/04 | $25.58 | 2.1 | -10.3% |
| Mannatech Inc. | MTEX | 10/21/04 | $16.40 | 11/02/04 | $16.63 | 1.7 | +1.4% |
| Hurco Companies Inc. | HURC | 10/12/04 | $15.30 | 11/01/04 | $13.05 | 2.9 | -14.7% |
| Petroleum Development Corp. | PETD | 09/07/04 | $32.51 | 10/27/04 | $36.79 | 7.1 | +13.2% |
| Petroleum Development Corp. | PETD | 10/20/04 | $39.43 | 10/27/04 | $36.79 | 1.0 | -6.7% |
| Comtech Telecom Corp. | CMTL | 09/22/04 | $24.01 | 10/22/04 | $26.81 | 4.3 | +11.6% |
| Portfolio Recovery Assoc | PRAA | 10/05/04 | $32.56 | 10/22/04 | $31.97 | 2.4 | -1.8% |
| TASER International, Inc. | TASR | 10/19/04 | $40.36 | 10/20/04 | $40.27 | 0.1 | -0.2% |
| Universal American Fin'l | UHCO | 09/21/04 | $12.52 | 10/15/04 | $11.81 | 3.4 | -5.7% |
| J2 Global Communications | JCOM | 09/21/04 | $30.99 | 10/15/04 | $30.06 | 3.4 | -3.0% |
| Steel Technologies Inc. | STTX | 09/28/04 | $24.79 | 10/13/04 | $25.72 | 2.1 | +3.7% |
| Sandisk Corp. | SNDK | 09/10/04 | $25.20 | 10/11/04 | $28.86 | 4.4 | +14.5% |
| Sierra Wireless Inc. | SWIR | 09/16/04 | $18.23 | 10/07/04 | $17.83 | 3.0 | -2.2% |
| TRM Corp. | TRMM | 09/21/04 | $18.15 | 10/07/04 | $17.66 | 2.3 | -2.7% |
| ATI Technologies Inc. | ATYT | 10/07/04 | $18.07 | 10/07/04 | $17.00 | 0.0 | -5.9% |
| Niku Corp. | NIKU | 08/19/04 | $13.09 | 10/05/04 | $14.63 | 6.7 | +11.8% |
| Volt Info Sciences Inc. | VOL | 09/15/04 | $26.59 | 10/01/04 | $29.03 | 2.3 | +9.2% |
| ADE Corp. | ADEX | 08/25/04 | $17.86 | 09/27/04 | $17.09 | 4.7 | -4.3% |
| AudioCodes Ltd. | AUDC | 09/13/04 | $12.74 | 09/27/04 | $12.01 | 2.0 | -5.8% |
| Cree Inc. | CREE | 09/20/04 | $29.95 | 09/27/04 | $28.13 | 1.0 | -6.1% |
| Netflix Inc. | NFLX | 09/07/04 | $16.33 | 09/24/04 | $16.62 | 2.4 | +1.8% |
| eResearchTechnology Inc. | ERES | 09/14/04 | $17.87 | 09/22/04 | $18.36 | 1.1 | +2.7% |
| Kensey Nash Corp. | KNSY | 08/18/04 | $25.62 | 09/20/04 | $28.75 | 4.7 | +12.2% |
| Winnebago Industries Inc. | WGO | 09/02/04 | $32.90 | 09/20/04 | $34.55 | 2.6 | +5.0% |
| Connetics Corp. | CNCT | 09/02/04 | $26.19 | 09/20/04 | $26.20 | 2.6 | +0.0% | | Average | 3.8 | +3.0% |
* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after
commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.
The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
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Privacy Policy
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Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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