The Deen's ListTM
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.2 #303 Sunday, December 19, 2004

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

  Weekly Status Report: Contents

Year-To-Date Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers

  Year-To-Date Performance

Year-To-Date as of December 17, 2004

Deen Capital+1.8%*
S&P 500+7.4%

* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm.

  Market Commentary

Market Stance: BULLISH (since December 15, 2004)

Last week, I returned to a bullish stance, as it seemed that my bearish call of December 7 was probably a mistake. I had a quick-reversal bullish signal from my NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q), and also my Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index returned to "green light" territory late Tuesday. Accordingly, I did some buying last week, though we so far have remained mostly in cash.

The balance of the technical evidence at this time favors a bullish stance, in my view, though not by much. It's a tough call.

On the bullish side:

+ My NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q), as I said, gave a bullish signal last week on December 14, reversing its December 7 bearish signal.

+ My Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index (PRSPI) improved last week from +4.0 to +5.3.

+ The NASDAQ closed at multi-year highs on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On the bearish side:

- When the NASDAQ closed at multi-year highs on Tuesday and Wednesday, it did so by only a tiny margin. It closed just 6 points above the January peak on Tuesday, and 9 points above on Wednesday. That's less than half a percent. Then, Thursday and Friday, it fell by a cumulative 27 points, on expanding volume.

- My Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index, which was in "green light" territory on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, slipped just barely below the green threshold Friday. It's now near the top end of the "yellow light" range.

- The three heaviest volume days on the NASDAQ since December 6 have been down days. One was December 7, which I thought might have been a major market turning point (I turned bearish), and the other two were Thursday and Friday. On all three days, the NASDAQ was retreating in price on heavy volume from a key resistance level near 2150. (This is a "key resistance level" because it corresponds to the January peak.) This is toppy behavior.

That "double-top" scenario I wrote about when I turned bearish on December 7 may, after all, be upon us. It's quite possible.

-KD, December 19, 2004

  Open Positions

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price
Weeks
Held
Gain
(Loss)
Armor Holdings Inc.AH12/17/04$46.40$46.180.0-0.5%
Sirenza MicrodevicesSMDI12/16/04$5.91$5.930.1+0.4%
Olympic Steel Inc.ZEUS12/15/04$23.95$25.180.3+5.1%
IXYS Corp.SYXI12/15/04$10.15$10.300.3+1.5%
Standard Pacific Corp.SPF12/14/04$61.78$63.060.4+2.1%
Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc.RSTI12/13/04$38.28$40.830.6+6.7%
Average0.3+2.5%

* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

  Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Sell
Date
NetSell
Price*
Weeks
Held
Gain
(Loss)
palmOne, Inc.PLMO12/13/04$43.9112/17/04$33.450.6-23.8%
KongZhong Corp.KONG12/07/04$11.1712/16/04$9.231.3-17.4%
KongZhong Corp.KONG12/14/04$10.0012/16/04$9.230.3-7.6%
PC Mall, Inc.MALL12/15/04$21.5912/16/04$20.540.1-4.8%
Monarch Casino & ResortMCRI10/27/04$27.1112/09/04$33.456.1+23.4%
NCI Building Systems Inc.NCS11/16/04$34.7212/09/04$37.633.3+8.4%
Bluegreen Corp.BXG11/23/04$14.6412/09/04$17.412.3+18.9%
China Yuchai Int'l Ltd.CYD12/02/04$17.5112/09/04$16.131.0-7.9%
Digital River Inc.DRIV09/13/04$27.4212/08/04$41.9612.3+53.0%
Infocrossing Inc.IFOX11/17/04$15.0512/08/04$16.753.0+11.3%
Innovative SolutionsISSC11/18/04$29.0212/08/04$29.682.9+2.2%
Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc.RSTI08/24/04$28.2812/07/04$37.5515.0+32.8%
DHB Industries Inc.DHB09/24/04$13.3812/07/04$17.9910.6+34.5%
Charles River Assoc Inc.CRAI09/30/04$38.1912/07/04$43.889.7+14.9%
M.D.C. Holdings Inc.MDC10/12/04$72.2812/07/04$76.408.0+5.7%
Sigmatel Inc.SGTL10/21/04$28.2812/07/04$34.876.7+23.3%
Nanometrics Inc.NANO11/02/04$14.7112/07/04$16.525.0+12.2%
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR11/03/04$13.6812/07/04$17.294.9+26.4%
Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc.RSTI11/10/04$37.2212/07/04$37.553.9+0.9%
Excel Maritime CarriersEXM11/23/04$27.9112/07/04$32.812.0+17.6%
Sify Ltd. ADRSIFY11/24/04$6.8812/07/04$6.291.9-8.6%
United Therapeutics Corp.UTHR11/29/04$43.5412/07/04$42.321.1-2.8%
Accredited Home LendersLEND11/30/04$42.9312/07/04$44.911.0+4.6%
DHB Industries Inc.DHB12/01/04$18.6012/07/04$17.990.9-3.3%
Navarre Corp.NAVR09/21/04$16.6912/06/04$15.6910.9-6.0%
Navarre Corp.NAVR10/13/04$14.7212/06/04$15.697.7+6.6%
Navarre Corp.NAVR10/22/04$14.9912/06/04$15.696.4+4.7%
Navarre Corp.NAVR11/12/04$16.2612/06/04$15.693.4-3.5%
Diodes Inc.DIOD10/01/04$27.1912/01/04$23.978.7-11.8%
Diodes Inc.DIOD10/19/04$25.6512/01/04$23.976.1-6.6%
LCA Vision Inc.LCAV10/26/04$27.5812/01/04$33.675.1+22.1%
Diodes Inc.DIOD11/26/04$24.7712/01/04$23.970.7-3.2%
Littelfuse Inc.LFUS11/08/04$38.1911/30/04$38.823.1+1.6%
MicroStrategy Inc.MSTR10/27/04$63.3011/29/04$64.554.7+2.0%
Quiksilver Inc.ZQK09/13/04$25.7311/22/04$28.6210.0+11.2%
F5 Networks Inc.FFIV10/27/04$40.0811/22/04$39.903.7-0.4%
Amedisys Inc.AMED09/15/04$28.8411/17/04$31.639.0+9.7%
Dawson Geophysical Co.DWSN09/29/04$20.7011/17/04$21.137.0+2.1%
Amedisys Inc.AMED10/21/04$31.2811/17/04$31.633.9+1.1%
Ventiv Health Inc.VTIV11/08/04$19.2511/17/04$17.581.3-8.7%
Dawson Geophysical Co.DWSN11/15/04$23.6411/17/04$21.130.3-10.6%
Dawson Geophysical Co.DWSN11/16/04$23.3411/17/04$21.130.1-9.4%
InfoSpace Inc.INSP10/26/04$53.9911/16/04$49.593.0-8.1%
MarketWatch Inc.MKTW10/28/04$14.0111/16/04$17.892.7+27.7%
MarketWatch Inc.MKTW10/29/04$13.3311/16/04$17.892.6+34.2%
Ctrip.com InternationalCTRP11/01/04$41.2111/11/04$45.291.4+9.9%
Carpenter Technology Corp.CRS10/26/04$48.5111/05/04$50.781.4+4.7%
Ditech Communications Corp.DITC10/21/04$26.6611/04/04$15.072.0-43.5%
Ditech Communications Corp.DITC11/03/04$22.7511/04/04$15.070.1-33.7%
VSE Corp.VSEC10/18/04$28.5111/02/04$25.582.1-10.3%
Mannatech Inc.MTEX10/21/04$16.4011/02/04$16.631.7+1.4%
Hurco Companies Inc.HURC10/12/04$15.3011/01/04$13.052.9-14.7%
Petroleum Development Corp.PETD09/07/04$32.5110/27/04$36.797.1+13.2%
Petroleum Development Corp.PETD10/20/04$39.4310/27/04$36.791.0-6.7%
Comtech Telecom Corp.CMTL09/22/04$24.0110/22/04$26.814.3+11.6%
Portfolio Recovery AssocPRAA10/05/04$32.5610/22/04$31.972.4-1.8%
TASER International, Inc.TASR10/19/04$40.3610/20/04$40.270.1-0.2%
Universal American Fin'lUHCO09/21/04$12.5210/15/04$11.813.4-5.7%
J2 Global CommunicationsJCOM09/21/04$30.9910/15/04$30.063.4-3.0%
Steel Technologies Inc.STTX09/28/04$24.7910/13/04$25.722.1+3.7%
Sandisk Corp.SNDK09/10/04$25.2010/11/04$28.864.4+14.5%
Sierra Wireless Inc.SWIR09/16/04$18.2310/07/04$17.833.0-2.2%
TRM Corp.TRMM09/21/04$18.1510/07/04$17.662.3-2.7%
ATI Technologies Inc.ATYT10/07/04$18.0710/07/04$17.000.0-5.9%
Niku Corp.NIKU08/19/04$13.0910/05/04$14.636.7+11.8%
Volt Info Sciences Inc.VOL09/15/04$26.5910/01/04$29.032.3+9.2%
ADE Corp.ADEX08/25/04$17.8609/27/04$17.094.7-4.3%
AudioCodes Ltd.AUDC09/13/04$12.7409/27/04$12.012.0-5.8%
Cree Inc.CREE09/20/04$29.9509/27/04$28.131.0-6.1%
Netflix Inc.NFLX09/07/04$16.3309/24/04$16.622.4+1.8%
eResearchTechnology Inc.ERES09/14/04$17.8709/22/04$18.361.1+2.7%
Kensey Nash Corp.KNSY08/18/04$25.6209/20/04$28.754.7+12.2%
Winnebago Industries Inc.WGO09/02/04$32.9009/20/04$34.552.6+5.0%
Connetics Corp.CNCT09/02/04$26.1909/20/04$26.202.6+0.0%
Average3.8+3.0%

* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions.

  Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

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  Privacy Policy

Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others.

  Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

 

Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com

Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc.