Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market Stance: BEARISH (since December 7, 2004)Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Bought Standard Pacific Corp. (SPF)
* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Today, Tuesday, December 14, 2004, I bought SPF, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. Standard Pacific Corp. builds single-family homes in the U.S. within a wide range of prices and sizes. They have operations in California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida and the Carolinas. Here's why I bought this stock: + Breakout: Last Friday, Dec 10, the stock closed at an all-time high, the first all-time high since April. This was a breakout from an eight-month trading range on heavy volume. We bought today at a price just slightly under Friday's close. + The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend. + Excellent recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +18%, +33%, +48%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, +39% to $869.8 million. + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 03 vs Dec 02: $2.41 vs $1.58 Mar 04 vs Mar 03: $1.21 vs $0.75 Jun 04 vs Jun 03: $1.72 vs $1.26 Sep 04 vs Sep 03: $2.16 vs $1.72 + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2004 is $8.75, up from $8.62 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2005 is $9.68, up from $8.90 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 6 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 13%, the stock is very attractively priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least 14c ahead of estimates in each of the past four quarters. + The company's industry group ("Building - Residential / Commercial") is ranked #10 for relative strength out of 197 industry groups tracked by Investor's Business Daily. This ranking changes daily, and it has been generally rising over recent weeks and months. -KD, December 14, 2004
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. ** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
Ken Deen Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||