The Deen's ListTM
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.2 #286 Tuesday, December 7, 2004 4:08PM ET

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

  Contents

Market Timing Alert: BEARISH
Year-To-Date Performance
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers

  Market Timing Alert: BEARISH

The market has just closed as I write this, and it looks like I have a bearish signal from my NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q), based on a double-top chart pattern in the NASDAQ Composite.

I sold most of my stocks today in anticipation of this bearish signal. Details will follow in less than an hour in my next bulletin.

The NASDAQ has been on a roll since putting in a bottom on August 12 at 1752.49. That was, in retrospect, a major bottom; and yesterday, when the NASDAQ closed at 2151.25, the highest close since January, just may have been a major top. My Timing Model is telling me that there is significant risk of this.

(By the way, the last new closing high for the year was 2153.83 on January 26, almost exactly the same as yesterday's close. That coincidence, plus today's heavy selling, is what makes this a "double top".)

In my experience, the "double-top" chart pattern is one to be respected. Many of the most important NASDAQ tops of the last 20 years were immediately preceded by this pattern.

-KD, December 7, 2004

  Year-To-Date Performance

Year-To-Date as of December 6, 2004

Deen Capital+8.4%*
S&P 500+7.0%

* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm.

  Open Positions

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
Gain
(Loss)
KongZhong Corp.KONG12/07/04$11.17$10.400.0-6.9%
China Yuchai Int'l Ltd.CYD12/02/04$17.51$17.580.7+0.4%
DHB Industries Inc.DHB12/01/04$18.60$17.910.9-3.7%
Accredited Home LendersLEND11/30/04$42.93$44.851.0+4.5%
United Therapeutics Corp.UTHR11/29/04$43.54$42.151.1-3.2%
Sify Ltd. ADRSIFY11/24/04$6.88$6.371.9-7.5%
Excel Maritime CarriersEXM11/23/04$27.91$32.802.0+17.5%
Bluegreen Corp.BXG11/23/04$14.64$18.122.0+23.8%
Innovative SolutionsISSC11/18/04$29.02$30.872.7+6.4%
Infocrossing Inc.IFOX11/17/04$15.05$17.082.9+13.5%
NCI Building Systems Inc.NCS11/16/04$34.72$38.663.0+11.3%
Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc.RSTI11/10/04$37.22$37.533.9+0.8%
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR11/03/04$13.68$17.294.9+26.3%
Nanometrics Inc.NANO11/02/04$14.71$16.555.0+12.5%
Monarch Casino & ResortMCRI10/27/04$27.11$33.525.9+23.6%
Sigmatel Inc.SGTL10/21/04$28.28$34.706.7+22.7%
M.D.C. Holdings Inc.MDC10/12/04$72.28$75.848.0+4.9%
Charles River Assoc Inc.CRAI09/30/04$38.19$43.959.7+15.1%
Digital River Inc.DRIV09/13/04$27.42$42.5112.1+55.0%
Average3.9+11.4%

* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

  Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter.

Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line.

This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties.

  Privacy Policy

Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others.

  Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

 

Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com

Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc.