The Deen's ListTM
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.2 #274 Wednesday, November 24, 2004 11:14AM ET

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BULLISH (since August 18, 2004)

  Contents

Year-To-Date Performance
Bought Sify Ltd. ADR (SIFY)
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers

  Year-To-Date Performance

Year-To-Date as of November 23, 2004

Deen Capital+1.0%*
S&P 500+5.8%

* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm.

  Bought Sify Ltd. ADR (SIFY)

Net buy price in managed accounts* $6.88
Most recent close (Nov 23) $6.85
Net change (based on net buy price) +$0.03
Today's volume as of 10:59am ET 439,405 ($3.0 million)
Average daily volume 241,800 ($1.7 million)
This year's earnings-per-share $0.09 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share $0.25 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings 27.5 (est)
Earnings growth rate, next 5 years N/A
Web site http://www.satyam.net.in

* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

Today, Wednesday, November 24, 2004, I bought SIFY, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. Sify Limited is an Internet, network and electronic commerce services company in India. They deliver services and solutions over a common Internet backbone infrastructure.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ News: Yesterday, Tue Nov 23 before the open, the company announced a partnership with Global Crossing. Effective October 18, Global Crossing IP VPN customers gained access to 63 major commercial centers in India, while Sify gained worldwide service reach to more than 50 countries and 500 major cities.

+ A "true surprise"*: Prior to the news, the stock was bouncing around within a 2-month trading range of $5.28 to $6.41. Then, yesterday, the stock soared on very heavy volume.

* "True surprise" is my term to describe a company news item that ignites heavy buying and that was not preceded by a short-term run-up in the stock price (i.e. not preceded by rumor).

+ Yesterday's jump in price was a breakout to a 5-month high.

+ Excellent recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +57%, +51%, +44%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Mar 31, +49% to $19.1 million.

+ Recent emergence into profitability: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Jun 03 vs Jun 02: (13c) vs (37c)
Sep 03 vs Sep 02:  (5c) vs (39c)
Dec 03 vs Dec 02:  (6c) vs (27c)
Mar 04 vs Mar 03:   2c  vs  (9c)

+ Strong, though falling, estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for FY 05 (Mar) is 9c, down from 10c 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for FY 06 is 25c, down from 26c 90 days ago. I consider this a positive in spite of falling estimates, because that's still a 178% jump in projected earnings from this year to next.

+ Valuation: At 28 times next year's estimated earnings, the stock is moderately priced.

+ The company's industry group ("Internet - ISP") has risen sharply in relative strength over recent weeks and months, according to data from Investor's Business Daily. It now ranks #85 out of 197 groups.

(No earnings-surprise history data was available.)

-KD, November 24, 2004

  Open Positions

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
Gain
(Loss)
Sify Ltd. ADRSIFY11/24/04$6.88$6.850.0-0.5%
Excel Maritime CarriersEXM11/23/04$27.91$27.400.1-1.8%
Bluegreen Corp.BXG11/23/04$14.64$14.560.1-0.5%
Innovative SolutionsISSC11/18/04$29.02$28.650.9-1.3%
Infocrossing Inc.IFOX11/17/04$15.05$15.761.0+4.7%
NCI Building Systems Inc.NCS11/16/04$34.72$35.721.1+2.9%
Navarre Corp.NAVR11/12/04$16.26$17.391.7+6.9%
Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc.RSTI11/10/04$37.22$37.902.0+1.8%
Littelfuse Inc.LFUS11/08/04$38.19$39.302.3+2.9%
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR11/03/04$13.68$16.383.0+19.7%
Nanometrics Inc.NANO11/02/04$14.71$16.553.1+12.5%
MicroStrategy Inc.MSTR10/27/04$63.30$63.634.0+0.5%
Monarch Casino & ResortMCRI10/27/04$27.11$31.684.0+16.9%
LCA Vision Inc.LCAV10/26/04$27.58$34.334.1+24.5%
Sigmatel Inc.SGTL10/21/04$28.28$33.704.9+19.1%
M.D.C. Holdings Inc.MDC10/12/04$72.28$77.506.1+7.2%
Charles River Assoc Inc.CRAI09/30/04$38.19$43.417.9+13.7%
Digital River Inc.DRIV09/13/04$27.42$38.3110.3+39.7%
Average3.2+9.4%

* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

  Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter.

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  Privacy Policy

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  Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

 

Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com

Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc.