| The Deen's ListTM |
| A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com) |
| Vol.2 #271 |
Sunday, November 21, 2004 |
Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.
Weekly Status Report: Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
Market Commentary
Open Positions
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers
Year-To-Date Performance
Year-To-Date as of November 19, 2004 |
| Deen Capital | -1.4% | * |
| S&P 500 | +5.3% |
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees.
Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm.
For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm.
Market Commentary
Market Stance: BULLISH (since August 18, 2004)
At least through Thursday, the market has been clearly in rally mode,
supported by very heavy buying volume. Friday, however, is another
story.
Here is where market timing gets tricky. The NASDAQ, on Thursday, had
just closed at a 9-month high. The market has been on a roll. Then we
have Friday, a down day on heavy volume. Friday's move was the biggest
one-day move of the week. This could be an early warning sign of an
important market top.
Friday's selling was triggered by a spike in oil futures and by the comments
of Alan Greenspan. The Fed Chairman pointed out that the U.S. need for
foreign capital is rising at an unsustainable pace. He has a good point.
Deficit spending at the federal level is out of control, and is being
largely financed by foreign investors. At some point, we may find that
their appetite for U.S. Treasuries has run out. At that point, interest
rates would go up sharply and stocks would go down sharply. The dollar
fell last week to a 4.5-year low versus the yen. This may be an early
warning sign.
On the other hand, my primary timing indicators are still OK to bullish:
+ My NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q) remains on its October 1 bullish
signal.
+ My Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index (PRSPI) fell back to "yellow
light" territory at +4.8 (scale -10 to +10). This raises a caution flag.
+ The percentage of stocks ($8 and up) trading above their 50-day moving
average fell from 84% a week ago to 79%. But 79% is still a very strong
reading. Just 4 weeks ago, it was at 60%.
My indicators, then, are telling me to hang in there, but nevertheless
I am worried. I would not rule out some pre-emptive selling.
-KD, November 21, 2004
Open Positions
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Current
Price |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss) |
| Innovative Solutions | ISSC | 11/18/04 | $29.02 | $27.19 | 0.1 | -6.3% |
| Infocrossing Inc. | IFOX | 11/17/04 | $15.05 | $15.02 | 0.3 | -0.2% |
| NCI Building Systems Inc. | NCS | 11/16/04 | $34.72 | $34.89 | 0.4 | +0.5% |
| Navarre Corp. | NAVR | 11/12/04 | $16.26 | $16.97 | 1.0 | +4.3% |
| Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc. | RSTI | 11/10/04 | $37.22 | $34.72 | 1.3 | -6.7% |
| Littelfuse Inc. | LFUS | 11/08/04 | $38.19 | $39.31 | 1.6 | +2.9% |
| NETGEAR, Inc. | NTGR | 11/03/04 | $13.68 | $15.62 | 2.3 | +14.1% |
| Nanometrics Inc. | NANO | 11/02/04 | $14.71 | $15.69 | 2.4 | +6.6% |
| MicroStrategy Inc. | MSTR | 10/27/04 | $63.30 | $63.70 | 3.3 | +0.6% |
| Monarch Casino & Resort | MCRI | 10/27/04 | $27.11 | $34.17 | 3.3 | +26.0% |
| F5 Networks Inc. | FFIV | 10/27/04 | $40.08 | $40.59 | 3.3 | +1.3% |
| LCA Vision Inc. | LCAV | 10/26/04 | $27.58 | $32.55 | 3.4 | +18.0% |
| Sigmatel Inc. | SGTL | 10/21/04 | $28.28 | $31.58 | 4.1 | +11.7% |
| Diodes Inc. | DIOD | 10/19/04 | $25.65 | $27.00 | 4.4 | +5.3% |
| M.D.C. Holdings Inc. | MDC | 10/12/04 | $72.28 | $76.34 | 5.4 | +5.6% |
| Charles River Assoc Inc. | CRAI | 09/30/04 | $38.19 | $42.40 | 7.1 | +11.0% |
| Quiksilver Inc. | ZQK | 09/13/04 | $25.73 | $28.92 | 9.6 | +12.4% |
| Digital River Inc. | DRIV | 09/13/04 | $27.42 | $36.75 | 9.6 | +34.0% | | Average | 3.5 | +7.8% |
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for
all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.
Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
| Company Name |
Stock
Symbol |
Buy
Date |
NetBuy
Price* |
Sell
Date |
NetSell
Price* |
Weeks
Held |
Gain
(Loss) |
| Amedisys Inc. | AMED | 09/15/04 | $28.84 | 11/17/04 | $31.63 | 9.0 | +9.7% |
| Dawson Geophysical Co. | DWSN | 09/29/04 | $20.70 | 11/17/04 | $21.13 | 7.0 | +2.1% |
| Amedisys Inc. | AMED | 10/21/04 | $31.28 | 11/17/04 | $31.63 | 3.9 | +1.1% |
| Ventiv Health Inc. | VTIV | 11/08/04 | $19.25 | 11/17/04 | $17.58 | 1.3 | -8.7% |
| Dawson Geophysical Co. | DWSN | 11/15/04 | $23.64 | 11/17/04 | $21.13 | 0.3 | -10.6% |
| Dawson Geophysical Co. | DWSN | 11/16/04 | $23.34 | 11/17/04 | $21.13 | 0.1 | -9.4% |
| InfoSpace Inc. | INSP | 08/20/04 | $37.69 | 11/16/04 | $49.59 | 12.6 | +31.6% |
| InfoSpace Inc. | INSP | 10/26/04 | $53.99 | 11/16/04 | $49.59 | 3.0 | -8.1% |
| MarketWatch Inc. | MKTW | 10/28/04 | $14.01 | 11/16/04 | $17.89 | 2.7 | +27.7% |
| MarketWatch Inc. | MKTW | 10/29/04 | $13.33 | 11/16/04 | $17.89 | 2.6 | +34.2% |
| Ctrip.com International | CTRP | 11/01/04 | $41.21 | 11/11/04 | $45.29 | 1.4 | +9.9% |
| Navarre Corp. | NAVR | 09/21/04 | $16.69 | 11/10/04 | $15.27 | 7.1 | -8.5% |
| Navarre Corp. | NAVR | 10/13/04 | $14.72 | 11/10/04 | $15.27 | 4.0 | +3.8% |
| Navarre Corp. | NAVR | 10/22/04 | $14.99 | 11/10/04 | $15.27 | 2.7 | +1.9% |
| Carpenter Technology Corp. | CRS | 10/26/04 | $48.51 | 11/05/04 | $50.78 | 1.4 | +4.7% |
| Ditech Communications Corp. | DITC | 08/25/04 | $22.51 | 11/04/04 | $15.07 | 10.1 | -33.0% |
| Ditech Communications Corp. | DITC | 10/21/04 | $26.66 | 11/04/04 | $15.07 | 2.0 | -43.5% |
| Ditech Communications Corp. | DITC | 11/03/04 | $22.75 | 11/04/04 | $15.07 | 0.1 | -33.7% |
| VSE Corp. | VSEC | 10/18/04 | $28.51 | 11/02/04 | $25.58 | 2.1 | -10.3% |
| Mannatech Inc. | MTEX | 10/21/04 | $16.40 | 11/02/04 | $16.63 | 1.7 | +1.4% |
| Hurco Companies Inc. | HURC | 10/12/04 | $15.30 | 11/01/04 | $13.05 | 2.9 | -14.7% |
| DHB Industries Inc. | DHB | 09/24/04 | $13.38 | 10/28/04 | $13.57 | 4.9 | +1.4% |
| Petroleum Development Corp. | PETD | 09/07/04 | $32.51 | 10/27/04 | $36.79 | 7.1 | +13.2% |
| Petroleum Development Corp. | PETD | 10/20/04 | $39.43 | 10/27/04 | $36.79 | 1.0 | -6.7% |
| Comtech Telecom Corp. | CMTL | 09/22/04 | $24.01 | 10/22/04 | $26.81 | 4.3 | +11.6% |
| Portfolio Recovery Assoc | PRAA | 10/05/04 | $32.56 | 10/22/04 | $31.97 | 2.4 | -1.8% |
| Rofin-Sinar Tech Inc. | RSTI | 08/24/04 | $28.28 | 10/21/04 | $30.08 | 8.3 | +6.4% |
| TASER International, Inc. | TASR | 10/19/04 | $40.36 | 10/20/04 | $40.27 | 0.1 | -0.2% |
| Universal American Fin'l | UHCO | 09/21/04 | $12.52 | 10/15/04 | $11.81 | 3.4 | -5.7% |
| J2 Global Communications | JCOM | 09/21/04 | $30.99 | 10/15/04 | $30.06 | 3.4 | -3.0% |
| Diodes Inc. | DIOD | 10/01/04 | $27.19 | 10/15/04 | $25.18 | 2.0 | -7.4% |
| Steel Technologies Inc. | STTX | 09/28/04 | $24.79 | 10/13/04 | $25.72 | 2.1 | +3.7% |
| Sandisk Corp. | SNDK | 09/10/04 | $25.20 | 10/11/04 | $28.86 | 4.4 | +14.5% |
| Sierra Wireless Inc. | SWIR | 09/09/04 | $18.69 | 10/07/04 | $17.83 | 4.0 | -4.6% |
| Sierra Wireless Inc. | SWIR | 09/16/04 | $18.23 | 10/07/04 | $17.83 | 3.0 | -2.2% |
| TRM Corp. | TRMM | 09/21/04 | $18.15 | 10/07/04 | $17.66 | 2.3 | -2.7% |
| ATI Technologies Inc. | ATYT | 10/07/04 | $18.07 | 10/07/04 | $17.00 | 0.0 | -5.9% |
| Niku Corp. | NIKU | 08/19/04 | $13.09 | 10/05/04 | $14.63 | 6.7 | +11.8% |
| Volt Info Sciences Inc. | VOL | 09/15/04 | $26.59 | 10/01/04 | $29.03 | 2.3 | +9.2% |
| ADE Corp. | ADEX | 08/25/04 | $17.86 | 09/27/04 | $17.09 | 4.7 | -4.3% |
| AudioCodes Ltd. | AUDC | 09/13/04 | $12.74 | 09/27/04 | $12.01 | 2.0 | -5.8% |
| Cree Inc. | CREE | 09/20/04 | $29.95 | 09/27/04 | $28.13 | 1.0 | -6.1% |
| Netflix Inc. | NFLX | 09/07/04 | $16.33 | 09/24/04 | $16.62 | 2.4 | +1.8% |
| eResearchTechnology Inc. | ERES | 09/14/04 | $17.87 | 09/22/04 | $18.36 | 1.1 | +2.7% |
| Kensey Nash Corp. | KNSY | 08/18/04 | $25.62 | 09/20/04 | $28.75 | 4.7 | +12.2% |
| Winnebago Industries Inc. | WGO | 09/02/04 | $32.90 | 09/20/04 | $34.55 | 2.6 | +5.0% |
| Connetics Corp. | CNCT | 09/02/04 | $26.19 | 09/20/04 | $26.20 | 2.6 | +0.0% |
| inTEST Corp. | INTT | 08/19/04 | $8.70 | 09/03/04 | $7.24 | 2.1 | -16.7% |
| United Therapeutics Corp. | UTHR | 08/03/04 | $27.85 | 08/31/04 | $29.28 | 4.0 | +5.1% |
| Tekelec | TKLC | 08/19/04 | $18.01 | 08/31/04 | $17.57 | 1.7 | -2.5% |
| Ceradyne Inc. | CRDN | 08/20/04 | $39.26 | 08/31/04 | $38.09 | 1.6 | -3.0% |
| Cohu Inc. | COHU | 08/23/04 | $18.79 | 08/31/04 | $15.45 | 1.1 | -17.8% |
| Ceradyne Inc. | CRDN | 08/25/04 | $38.92 | 08/31/04 | $38.09 | 0.9 | -2.1% |
| ZYGO Corp. | ZIGO | 08/26/04 | $10.90 | 08/30/04 | $10.10 | 0.6 | -7.4% |
| Jupitermedia Corp. | JUPM | 08/20/04 | $14.69 | 08/27/04 | $14.43 | 1.0 | -1.8% |
| CACI International Inc. | CAI | 08/19/04 | $46.73 | 08/24/04 | $47.64 | 0.7 | +1.9% |
* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after
commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.
The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions.
Subscription Information
Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen
Capital Management, Inc.
My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my
stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of
client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then,
third, I send out this newsletter.
Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com.
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Privacy Policy
Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held
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Disclaimers
All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of
risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
completeness.
Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com
Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc.
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