Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Weekly Status Report: Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Market Stance: BULLISH (since August 18, 2004) We are in the sweet spot now. The market is moving higher, and Deen Capital accounts are moving higher at a faster clip. Our portfolio is firing on all cylinders. Among our 19 stocks, we have no losers, and some very big winners. (Details below.) The market advance is being led by smaller stocks with strong growth characteristics -- the kind of stock I favor. All my technical indicators are unanimously bullish. My NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.10q) remains on its October 1 bullish signal; my Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index (PRSPI) has climbed to a near-perfect +8.2 (scale -10 to +10); and the percentage of stocks ($8 and up) trading above their 50-day moving average now has climbed for a third week in a row to 84%. The pickup in NASDAQ volume (mostly on the buy side) we saw in October is extending very nicely into November. This is a very healthy market. Also helping the market: crude oil closed last week at a 7-week low, consumer sentiment is up, and October retail sales came in better than expected. It is during periods such as this that Deen Capital accounts can potentially score spectacular gains, sometimes 15% or more, in a short period of time. We shall see. We are fully invested, and I am very pleased and optimistic about the potential for further gains from our 19 stocks. I think they are all excellent stocks. But, at the same time, I am watching every day for signs of an important market top. So far, I see no such sign. As you know, my market stance is subject to change any day without notice, as I re-evaluate market conditions daily. -KD, November 13, 2004 I recently changed the way I implement the concept of "stop loss". If a losing stock falls too far, I sell it. This has been true for a long time. The threshold of how far is "too far" is the "stop loss" point. This "stop loss" point is calculated by my StockSell Program. If a stock closes below this "calculated stop loss", a sell signal is generated. I have become uncomfortable with this "calculated stop loss" over time, because it sometimes is too low. The percentage loss varies, but sometimes it is more than 10% below our buy price. Starting last week, I am addressing this problem -- not by changing the formula for the "calculated stop loss" price, but by adding an element of human judgment (my judgment) to the process. Now, starting last week, whenever I buy a stock, I decide on a "soft stop loss" and a "hard stop loss" price. I choose these two price points by looking at the chart and applying my judgment and experience. I record these two price points in a computer file, and my StockSell Program (a new Ver.13s) reads that file. Now, if the stock price closes below *either* the new hand-picked "hard stop loss" price or the old "calculated stop loss" price, I will get a sell signal. (Typically, the hand-picked "hard stop loss" will be higher, but not always.) So what about the "soft stop loss"? This price is always slightly higher than the "hard stop loss". Generally speaking, my intention is that, if a stock falls below the "soft stop loss" price, then it's on probation. If it quickly forms a bottom and heads higher, fine. Otherwise, it should be sold. Exactly on which day to sell in this circumstance will again be a matter of judgment on my part. Typically, my hand-picked "hard stop loss" price will be in the range of 4% to 8% below our buy price. -KD, November 13, 2004
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
Ken Deen Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||