The Deen's ListTM
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.2 #258 Monday, November 8, 2004 2:39PM ET

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BULLISH (since August 18, 2004)

  Contents

Year-To-Date Performance
Bought Ventiv Health Inc. (VTIV)
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers

  Year-To-Date Performance

Year-To-Date as of November 5, 2004

Deen Capital-2.1%*
S&P 500+4.9%

* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm.

  Bought Ventiv Health Inc. (VTIV)

Net buy price in managed accounts* $19.25
Most recent close (Nov 05) $18.75
Net change (based on net buy price) +$0.50
Today's volume as of 2:24pm ET 958,860 ($18.5 million)
Average daily volume 170,900 ($3.3 million)
This year's earnings-per-share $0.72 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share $0.91 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings 21.2
Earnings growth rate, next 5 years 30.0% per year (est)
Web site http://www.ventiv.com

* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

Today, Monday, November 8, 2004, I bought VTIV, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. Ventiv Health, Inc. provides outsourced sales and marketing solutions for the pharmaceutical, biotechnology and life sciences industries. The Company offers a range of integrated and standalone services, in a context of consultative partnership that identifies strategic goals and applies targeted, tailored solutions.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ News: This morning, Mon Nov 8, before the open, the company announced results for the quarter ended Sep 30. Earnings came in at 20c per diluted share (vs 12c last year and First Call 17c). Revenue was up 50% to $88.9 million (First Call $70.5 million). The Company also increased its earnings guidance for 2004.

+ Breakout: Two days earlier, on Thu Nov 4, the stock broke out of a five-month trading range on heavy volume.

+ The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend.

+ Excellent recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +51%, +62%, +63%, and, most recently, as cited above, +50%.

+ Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Dec 03 vs Dec 02: 20c vs  7c
Mar 04 vs Mar 03: 20c vs  1c
Jun 04 vs Jun 03: 19c vs  7c
Sep 04 vs Sep 03: 20c vs 12c

+ Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2004 is 72c, up from 66c 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2005 is 91c, up from 81c 90 days ago.

+ Valuation: At 21 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 30%, the stock is very attractively priced.

+ History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least 3c ahead of estimates in each of the past five quarters (including the just-reported quarter cited above).

I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factor:

- Although the company's industry group ("Commercial Services - Healthcare") has risen just slightly in relative strength from two months ago, mostly it has been falling over the past six months, according to data from Investor's Business Daily.

-KD, November 8, 2004

  Open Positions

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price**
Weeks
Held
Gain
(Loss)
Ventiv Health Inc.VTIV11/08/04$19.25$19.200.0-0.3%
NETGEAR, Inc.NTGR11/03/04$13.68$13.980.7+2.2%
Nanometrics Inc.NANO11/02/04$14.71$15.440.9+4.9%
Ctrip.com InternationalCTRP11/01/04$41.21$51.151.0+24.1%
MarketWatch Inc.MKTW10/29/04$13.33$16.241.4+21.8%
MarketWatch Inc.MKTW10/28/04$14.01$16.241.6+15.9%
MicroStrategy Inc.MSTR10/27/04$63.30$62.901.7-0.6%
Monarch Casino & ResortMCRI10/27/04$27.11$32.491.7+19.8%
F5 Networks Inc.FFIV10/27/04$40.08$42.461.7+5.9%
LCA Vision Inc.LCAV10/26/04$27.58$29.171.9+5.7%
InfoSpace Inc.INSP10/26/04$53.99$55.621.9+3.0%
Navarre Corp.NAVR10/22/04$14.99$14.982.4-0.1%
Sigmatel Inc.SGTL10/21/04$28.28$28.502.6+0.8%
Amedisys Inc.AMED10/21/04$31.28$35.892.6+14.7%
Diodes Inc.DIOD10/19/04$25.65$26.962.9+5.1%
M.D.C Holdings Inc.MDC10/12/04$72.28$78.083.9+8.0%
Charles River Assoc Inc.CRAI09/30/04$38.19$40.685.6+6.5%
Quiksilver Inc.ZQK09/13/04$25.73$28.258.0+9.8%
Digital River Inc.DRIV09/13/04$27.42$33.368.0+21.7%
Average2.6+8.9%

* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old.

  Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter.

Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line.

This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties.

  Privacy Policy

Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others.

  Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

 

Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com

Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc.