Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market Stance: BULLISH (since August 18, 2004) Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Bought Ctrip.com International (CTRP)
* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Today, Monday, November 1, 2004, I bought CTRP, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. Ctrip.com International, Ltd. is a Shanghai-based consolidator of hotel accommodations and airline tickets in China. The Company aggregates information on hotels and flights and enables its customers to make informed and cost-effective hotel and flight bookings. Here's why I bought this stock: + Back on October 6, the stock broke out of a nine-month trading range on extremely heavy volume. On that day, the stock also met my stringent technical buy criteria, as outlined in my Research Update of June 26, 2004: http://www.deencapital.com/newslett/2004/040626.129.html#3 . I have been watching this stock ever since then, waiting for a good entry point. This may be it. After a mild selloff between Oct 19 and Oct 28, the stock is tentatively resuming its uptrend today. + Explosion in trading volume, mostly on the buy side. Prior to October 6, average daily volume was about 50,000 shares. The average over the 18 market days between October 6 and now is 475,933. That's a dramatic, almost 10-fold, jump in volume, and it corresponds to a jump in the stock price. Before October 6, the stock price was in the 20's and 30's; since October 6, it's mostly in the 40's. + The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend. + Excellent and accelerating recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +88%, +105%, +101%, and, for the most recently reported quarter ended Jun 30, +332% to $9.7 million. + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Sep 03 vs Sep 02: (54c) vs (3c) Dec 03 vs Dec 02: 21c vs (39c) Mar 04 vs Mar 03: 16c vs 11c Jun 04 vs Jun 03: 23c vs (7c) + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2004 is 89c, up from 81c 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2005 is $1.20, up from $1.15 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 34 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 39%, the stock is moderately priced. (Earnings surprise history data was not available.) + The company's industry group ("Leisure Services") has risen just slightly in relative strength over the past three months, according to Investor's Business Daily. -KD, November 1, 2004 Sold Hurco Companies Inc. (HURC)
* The net buy (sell) price is the total net cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. This stock is selling off sharply today, reason unknown. A close of $13.52 or below will trigger a "stop-loss" sell signal from my StockSell Program (Ver.13r). This appears likely, so I am selling now, about an hour before the close. Also: For the first time since the breakout of October 1, the stock price has fallen back into its old trading range. This is a failed breakout. -KD, November 1, 2004
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. ** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
Ken Deen Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||