Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Weekly Status Report: Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Market Stance: BULLISH (since August 18, 2004) Last week, the NASDAQ gave, in my view, the strongest indication in months as to its likely direction for the rest of the year. That "likely direction" is up. Here's why I say this: + First, NASDAQ volume is strongly and unambiguously bullish. Volume has picked up significantly in October, and most of it is on the buy side. The seven heaviest volume days since July all took place in October, and all seven were up days. The heaviest volume day of all was last Wednesday, when the NASDAQ jumped more than 2%, its second-biggest move of the month. (The biggest move was October 1, another one of those seven heavy-volume days.) + Two weeks ago, and again last week, I discussed how the NASDAQ is simultaneously in a 2-month uptrend and also a 9-month downtrend. That uptrend is very much intact, but there is tentative reason to think that maybe, just maybe, that 9-month downtrend is history. A downward-sloping trendline, a line defined by connecting the peaks of January and June, was pierced for the first time last week. + The NASDAQ closed at a 3-month high on Thursday, and it's still within a point of that mark. + Market internals are improving. 70% of stocks $8 and up are now trading above their 50-day moving average. That's up from 60% a week ago and from 67% two weeks ago. One other bullish development last week: The price of crude oil on the futures market fell substantially. That price, which peaked at $55.50 on Monday. now stands at $51.76. That's still very high, but the relentless march higher has been at least temporarily halted and even reversed. A great deal now hinges on Tuesday, November 2, Election Day. Will there be an election-related terrorist attack, as Tom Ridge predicted? Will the election outcome be hotly contested, and ultimately decided by the courts, as in 2000? Will we know on Wednesday morning who our next President is? The market hates uncertainty, and there's a good chance that these uncertainties will be resolved next week. (One of them, the election-related attack question, will certainly be resolved.) I do not think it matters, in terms of the market's direction, who wins the election. It does matter greatly, however, that the election process proceed in an orderly fashion. Our gain last week, while good, was less than the market averages. The market is behaving like it's in the early stage of a new bull market. At this stage, it's not uncommon for big-cap stocks to steal the show. That should change, however, in our favor, and soon. I believe we are now holding some stocks with powerful upside potential. In summary, I'm expecting substantial gains ahead, based on the factors cited above, and also based on my expectation that the election process will unfold in an orderly fashion. If I'm wrong about that, I may consider an immediate retreat to cash. -KD, October 30, 2004
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Stocks Sold Over Past 13 Weeks
* Net buy (sell) prices shown are the total net purchase cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. The Gain(Loss) is therefore net after commissions. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
Ken Deen Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||