Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market Stance: BULLISH (since August 18, 2004) Contents
Year-To-Date Performance
* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm. Bought F5 Networks Inc. (FFIV)
* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Today, Wednesday, October 27, 2004, I bought FFIV, first for client accounts, then for my personal accounts. F5 Networks, Inc. develops, manufactures and sells products and services to help companies efficiently and securely manage their Internet traffic, as well as the access and use of their intranet-based software applications. Here's why I bought this stock: + News: Yesterday, Tue Oct 26, after the close, the company announced results for the quarter ended Sep 30. Earnings came in at 43c per diluted share (28c pro forma, vs last year 5c and First Call 21c). Revenue was up 59% to $50.2 million (First Call $46.6 million). The company also set revenue and earnings targets for the first quarter of fiscal 2005 (the current quarter) that were above the First Call consensus. The company projects earnings-per-share of 20c to 21c on revenue of $52 million, vs First Call 17c on $50 million. + A "true surprise"*: The stock has been trading in a sideways pattern since Oct 5. Today, the stock is soaring on extremely heavy volume. * "True surprise" is my term to describe a company news item that ignites heavy buying and that was not preceded by a short-term run-up in the stock price (i.e. not preceded by rumor). + Breakout: The price movement today represents a breakout from a nine-month trading range. + Today, the stock is on track to meet my very stringent technical buy criteria, as outlined in my Research Update of June 25, 2004: http://www.deencapital.com/newslett/2004/040626.129.html#3 . + The stock's 200-day moving average is rising, indicating a long-term uptrend. + Excellent and accelerating recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +33%, +45%, +52%, and, most recently, as cited above, +59%. + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 03 vs Dec 02: 12c vs 2c Mar 04 vs Mar 03: 16c vs 3c Jun 04 vs Jun 03: 20c vs 5c Sep 04 vs Sep 03: 28c vs 5c + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for FY 06 (Sep) is 79c, up from 77c 90 days ago. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least 2c ahead of estimates in each of the past five quarters (including the just-reported quarter cited above). + The company's industry group ("Internet - Network Solutions") has risen in relative strength over the past three months, according to Investor's Business Daily, from near the bottom at #178, to near the top at #30 (out of 197 groups). I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factor: - Valuation: At 51 times this year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 20.5%, the stock seems pricey. I usually look at the price relative to next year's earnings, but in this case, no estimate is available. Presumably, the P/E would be lower if I had an estimate for next year's earnings. -KD, October 27, 2004
* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. ** Current prices are at least 20 minutes old. Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, an e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in strict confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.
Ken Deen Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||