The Deen's ListTM
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.2 #128 Friday, June 25, 2004 12:40pm ET

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market Stance: BULLISH (since May 25, 2004)

  Contents

Year-To-Date Performance
Bought Silicon Image Inc. (SIMG)
Open Positions
Subscription Information
Privacy Policy
Disclaimers

  Year-To-Date Performance

Year-To-Date as of June 24, 2004

Deen Capital+0.6%*
S&P 500+2.6%

* An average of managed accounts, net after commissions and fees. Individual account results may vary. See also www.deencapital.com/perform.htm. For information on managed accounts, see www.deencapital.com/mgdaccts.htm.

  Bought Silicon Image Inc. (SIMG)

Net buy price in managed accounts* $11.99
Most recent close (Jun 24) $10.24
Net change (based on net buy price) +$1.75
Today's volume as of 12:25pm ET 3.3 million ($39.6 million)
Average daily volume 833,200 ($10.0 million)
This year's earnings-per-share $0.31 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share $0.42 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings 28.6 (est)
Earnings growth rate, next 5 years 32.5% per year (est)

* The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

On Fri Jun 25, I bought SIMG. Silicon Image Inc. (www.siimage.com) develops multi-gigabit semiconductor interfaces for the secure transmission, storage and display of digital media.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ News: On Thu Jun 24 after the close, the company raised its revenue guidance for the current quarter, which ends in a few days on June 30. The company said it expects 16% to 20% sequential revenue growth for this quarter, versus the company's prior guidance of 8% to 13%. Based on revenue of $35.858 million in the quarter ended March 31, this forecast translates into $41.6 to $43.0 million for the current quarter. That's well ahead of the First Call consensus estimate of $39.55 million.

+ A "true surprise"*: Prior to the news, the stock was trading toward the low end of its 5-month trading range. Then, on Friday morning, the stock was up sharply on very heavy volume.

* "True surprise" is my term to describe a company news item that ignites heavy buying and that was not preceded by a short-term run-up in the stock price (i.e. not preceded by rumor).

+ The stock is in a long-term uptrend.

+ Excellent recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +26%, +13%, +27%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Mar 31, +45% to $35.9 million.

+ Improving earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters:

Jun 03 vs Jun 02:  1c  vs (4c)
Sep 03 vs Sep 02: (1c) vs (1c)
Dec 03 vs Dec 02:  3c  vs  1c
Mar 04 vs Mar 03:  6c  vs  1c

+ Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2004 is 31c, up from 24c 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2005 is 42c, up from 33c 90 days ago.

+ Valuation: At 29 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 32%, the stock is attractively priced.

+ History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings that were a penny ahead of estimates in both of the past two quarters.

I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factor:

- The company's industry group ("Semiconductor Mfg") has fallen in relative strength over the past three months, according to Investor's Business Daily.

-KD, June 25, 2004

  Open Positions

Company Name Stock
Symbol
Buy
Date
NetBuy
Price*
Current
Price
Weeks
Held
Gain
(Loss)
Silicon Image Inc.SIMG06/25/04$11.99$11.970.0-0.2%
ATI Technologies Inc.ATYT06/24/04$18.30$18.480.1+1.0%
PalmOne Inc.PLMO06/23/04$28.93$32.860.3+13.6%
Cyberonics Inc.CYBX06/23/04$33.00$34.920.3+5.8%
Winnebago Industries Inc.WGO06/17/04$36.63$36.971.1+0.9%
Greg Manning Auctions Inc.GMAI06/16/04$15.38$16.351.3+6.3%
DHB Industries Inc.DHB06/09/04$12.34$14.262.3+15.6%
Western Wireless Corp. AWWCA06/01/04$27.43$27.553.4+0.4%
Nextel Partners Inc.NXTP05/28/04$16.19$16.654.0+2.8%
Ditech Communications Corp.DITC05/28/04$18.06$24.804.0+37.3%
Tech Data Corp.TECD05/27/04$38.69$38.894.1+0.5%
Seachange International Inc.SEAC05/27/04$13.89$16.994.1+22.3%
Copart Inc.CPRT05/27/04$24.06$25.694.1+6.8%
Sonic SolutionsSNIC05/26/04$21.31$20.874.3-2.1%
Boston Scientific Corp.BSX05/25/04$40.19$41.704.4+3.8%
Average2.5+7.7%

* Net buy prices shown are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

  Subscription Information

Welcome to The Deen's ListTM, a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc.

My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter.

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  Privacy Policy

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  Disclaimers

All stocks discussed in The Deen's ListTM involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's ListTM or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness.

 

Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com

Copyright © 2004 Deen Capital Management, Inc.