The Deen's List(TM) A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com) Vol.1 #97 Monday, December 29, 2003 10:58am ET Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market stance: BULLISH (since Dec 12 2003) ******************* Bought Digital River Inc. (DRIV) ******************* Net buy price in managed accounts(*)... $22.86 Yesterday's close (Dec 26)............. $21.95 Net change (based on net buy price).... +$0.91 Today's volume as of 10:32am ET........ 267,739 ($6.1 million) Average daily volume................... 828,200 ($18.9 million) This year's earnings-per-share......... $0.64 (est) Next year's earnings-per-share......... $0.86 (est) P/E using next year's earnings......... 26.6 (est) Earnings growth rate, next 5 years..... 25.0% per year (est) (*) The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. On Mon Dec 29, I bought DRIV. Digital River (www.digitalriver.com) provides e-commerce services to software publishers and online retailers. Here's why I bought this stock: + Technical: This stock is in a short-term downtrend since mid-October, but a long-term uptrend since May 2002. The stock closed Fri Dec 26 at $21.83. That price level is very close to the 50-day moving average, very close to a 4-month low, and it is a level at which the stock has found support earlier this month and last. This morning [Mon Dec 29], the stock is up sharply off of that support level. This, combined with the stock's exceptionally attractive growth/valuation profile (detailed below) and the increasingly favorable market conditions for growth stocks generally over the last couple of weeks -- a trend I expect to spill over into January at least -- make this stock a buy in my opinion. + Excellent recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +21%, +36%, +18%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, +42% to $26.8 million. + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 02 vs Dec 01: 15c vs 4c Mar 03 vs Mar 02: 17c vs 2c Jun 03 vs Jun 02: 13c vs 5c Sep 03 vs Sep 02: 18c vs 5c + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2003 is 64c, up from 61c 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2004 is 86c, up from 81c 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 27 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 25%, the stock is attractively priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least a penny ahead of estimates in each of the past four quarters. I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factors: - The company's industry group ("Internet - Network Solutions"), though strong at #25 out of 197 groups, has fallen in relative strength over the past three months, according to Investor's Business Daily. It was #20 back then. - The stock was up nicely at the time I bought, but volume was not heavy. I usually insist on heavy-volume buying before I buy. *********************** Subscription Information *********************** Welcome to The Deen's List(TM), a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. **************************** Privacy Policy **************************** Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. ***************************** Disclaimers ****************************** * All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. * Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. * The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. ************************************************************************ Ken Deen Deen Capital Management, Inc. PO Box 30925 Santa Barbara, CA 93130 (805) 682-1870 deenslist@deencapital.com Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.