The Deen's List(TM) A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com) Vol.1 #84 Monday December 15 2003 2:09pm ET Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market stance: BULLISH (since Dec 12 2003) ******************** Bought Headwaters Inc. (HDWR) ********************* Net buy price in managed accounts(*)... $20.29 Yesterday's close (Dec 12)............. $19.35 Net change (based on net buy price).... +$0.94 Today's volume as of 1:24pm ET ........ 441,233 ($9.0 million) Average daily volume................... 416,600 ($8.5 million) This year's earnings-per-share......... $1.55 (est) Next year's earnings-per-share......... $1.83 (est) P/E using next year's earnings......... 11.1 (est) Earnings growth rate, next 5 years..... 23.0% per year (est) (*) The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. On Mon Dec 15, I bought HDWR. Headwaters Inc. (www.hdwtrs.com) markets technology for recycling the waste by-products from coal, steel and other industries into fuel sources. I just sold this stock back on Dec 9 due to technical considerations. Here's why I getting back into this stock: + Breakout: At the time I bought, mid-day on Mon Dec 15, the stock was breaking out of a 6-month trading range. Volume was running about double the average. + Excellent recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +382%, +241%, +233%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, +144% to $106.5 million. + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 02 vs Dec 01: 29c vs 19c Mar 03 vs Mar 02: 24c vs 21c Jun 03 vs Jun 02: 37c vs 26c Sep 03 vs Sep 02: 40c vs 28c + Strong (though not rising) estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for FY 04 (Sep) is $1.55, down from $1.58 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for FY 05 is $1.83 (the 90-days-ago estimate is not available). + Valuation: At 11 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 23%, the stock is very attractively priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings ahead of estimates in each of the past four quarters. + The company's industry group ("Energy - Other") has risen in relative strength over the past six months, according to Investor's Business Daily. *********************** Subscription Information *********************** Welcome to The Deen's List(TM), a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. **************************** Privacy Policy **************************** Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. ************************ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS ************************* * All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. * Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. * The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. ************************************************************************ Ken Deen Deen Capital Management, Inc. PO Box 30925 Santa Barbara, CA 93130 (805) 682-1870 deenslist@deencapital.com Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.