The Deen's List(TM) A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com) Vol.1 #82 Sunday December 14 2003 Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market stance: BULLISH (since Dec 12 2003) ******************** Weekly Status Report: Contents ******************** Market Commentary Table of Open Positions Table of Positions Closed Last Week Subscription Information Privacy Policy IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS *************** Weekly Status Report: Market Commentary **************** Last week, we had a setback, as our account values slipped about 3% during what was otherwise an up week. I sold most of our stocks at the worst possible time, on Tuesday and Wednesday, as a correction in market-leading growth stocks was becoming nasty. Then they snapped back on Thursday and Friday. Had I made no move last week, we would have had a profitable week. On Wednesday at the close, my NASDAQ Timing Model (Ver.6o) gave a bearish signal, and my Performance-of-Recent-Stock-Picks Index fell from +4.9 the previous Friday to +1.9. This is why I turned bearish on Thursday morning. (I did not go to 100% cash, though. I held on to our last two stocks because they were both rallying that day.) And then, the next day, Friday, I returned to a bullish stance and did some buying. I'll explain why in a moment. But make no mistake -- it was the selling that resulted in a down week for our accounts, not the buying. This is the risk one incurs when trying to time the market. I am willing to pay this price occasionally because, when the market does turn truly ugly, I may be able to avoid much of the damage. Preserving our account values is a top priority with me (much more so since my trading reforms of 2002). In order to protect our account values from severe downdrafts, market timing is essential, especially given that I trade highly volatile stocks. Now, as promised, here's why I returned to a bullish stance on Friday: + The other of my two primary market indicators, my Performance-of- Recent-Stock-Picks Index (PRSPI), shot up to +5.5 (on a scale of -10 to +10) on Thursday's close. That's solidly bullish, and higher than last Friday's +4.9. When my PRSPI is this strong and growing stronger week-over-week, it justifies, in my view, overriding my Timing Model. + The Dow and the S&P 500 are hitting 17-month highs. + The Semiconductor Holders Trust (SMH), which gave an early warning of this early December growth stock correction with a bearish double-top chart pattern (I commented on this last week), is, in my opinion, now giving an opposite, bullish, signal. I refer to the very-heavy-volume intraday reversal on Dec 10, which put a stop to the six-day 11% early December selloff. The very heavy volume is a clue that this intraday reversal may represent a significant change of direction. Nothing is certain, however, and, as always, my take on the market's direction is subject to change without notice, as I re-evaluate market conditions on a daily basis. -KD ***************** Weekly Status Report: Open Positions ***************** Stock Buy NetBuy Current Holding Gain Symbol Date Price* Price Period (Loss) ----- -------- ------ ------- --------- ------ ACGL 12/12/03 $39.21 $39.20 0.0 weeks -0.0% ADAT 12/12/03 $11.42 $11.35 0.0 weeks -0.7% ADIC 12/12/03 $13.68 $13.84 0.0 weeks +1.2% BSX 10/15/03 $32.38 $34.69 8.3 weeks +7.1% ENH 11/26/03 $31.04 $31.89 2.3 weeks +2.7% *********** Weekly Status Report: Positions Closed Last Week *********** Stock Buy NetBuy Sell NetSell Holding Gain* Symbol Date Price* Date Price* Period (Loss) ----- -------- ------ -------- ------ --------- ------ AMKR 11/26/03 $19.75 12/09/03 $18.09 1.9 weeks -8.4% ATYT 11/25/03 $15.18 12/09/03 $14.61 2.0 weeks -3.7% CYD 11/24/03 $28.15 12/10/03 $28.49 2.3 weeks +1.2% DAKT 11/24/03 $18.41 12/10/03 $19.84 2.3 weeks +7.8% FWHT 12/04/03 $17.54 12/10/03 $16.44 0.9 weeks -6.3% HDWR 10/27/03 $17.36 12/09/03 $18.40 6.1 weeks +6.0% KSWS 10/23/03 $42.84 12/10/03 $46.26 6.9 weeks +8.0% MATK 11/13/03 $54.87 12/10/03 $57.91 3.9 weeks +5.5% QLTI 11/24/03 $16.19 12/10/03 $18.35 2.3 weeks +13.4% TRMB 10/29/03 $27.84 12/10/03 $29.39 6.0 weeks +5.6% VCLK 12/09/03 $8.90 12/10/03 $8.33 0.1 weeks -6.3% * "Net" buy prices are the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. The Gain (Loss) is therefore also net after commissions. *********************** Subscription Information *********************** Welcome to The Deen's List(TM), a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. **************************** Privacy Policy **************************** Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. ************************ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS ************************* * All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. * Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. * The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. ************************************************************************ Ken Deen Deen Capital Management, Inc. PO Box 30925 Santa Barbara, CA 93130 (805) 682-1870 deenslist@deencapital.com Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.