The Deen's List(TM) A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com) Vol.1 #75 Tuesday December 9 2003 1:11pm ET Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market stance: BULLISH (since Oct 3 2003) ******************** Bought ValueClick Inc. (VCLK) ********************* Net buy price in managed accounts(*)... $8.90 Yesterday's close (Dec 08)............. $7.72 Net change (based on net buy price).... +$1.18 Today's volume as of 11:54am ET........ 3.1 million ($27.7 million) Average daily volume................... 1.3 million ($12.0 million) This year's earnings-per-share......... $0.11 (est) Next year's earnings-per-share......... $0.21 (est) P/E using next year's earnings......... 42.6 (est) Earnings growth rate, next 5 years..... 36.0% per year (est) (*) The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. ValueClick, Inc. (www.valueclick.com) provides Internet advertising solutions to website publishers and online advertisers. Here's why I bought this stock: + News: On Tue Dec 9 before the open, the company raised its guidance for the fourth quarter and year 2003, and provided initial guidance for 2004. For details, go to finance.yahoo.com and check the headlines for VCLK. + A "true surprise"(*): Prior to the news, the stock had been trading near a 4-month low. Then, on Dec 9, presumably in response to the news, the stock soared on heavy volume. (*) "True surprise" is my term to describe a company news item that ignites heavy buying and that was not preceded by a short-term runup in the stock price (i.e. not preceded by rumor). + Excellent recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +54%, +57%, +42%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Sep 30, +31% to $22.7 million. + Emergence into profitability. Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 02 vs Dec 01: 2c vs (5c) Mar 03 vs Mar 02: 2c vs (2c) Jun 03 vs Jun 02: 2c vs (4c) Sep 03 vs Sep 02: 3c vs (1c) + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2003 is 11c, up from 10c 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2004 is 21c, up from 20c 90 days ago. + Valuation: We bought the stock at 42 times next year's estimated earnings. That's not excessive for a company which is newly profitable. The projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate is 36%. The above items were so compelling that I chose to buy the stock in spite of the following negative factor: - The company's industry group ("Internet - E Commerce") has fallen sharply in relative strength over the past six months, from #4 to #55 out of 197 groups, according to Investor's Business Daily. *********************** Subscription Information *********************** Welcome to The Deen's List(TM), a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. **************************** Privacy Policy **************************** Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. ************************ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS ************************* * All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. * Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. * The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. ************************************************************************ Ken Deen Deen Capital Management, Inc. PO Box 30925 Santa Barbara, CA 93130 (805) 682-1870 deenslist@deencapital.com Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.