The Deen's List(TM) A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com) Vol.1 #45 Tuesday November 4 2003 1:30pm ET Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market stance: BULLISH (since Oct 3 2003) ******************************* Contents ******************************* Bought APCC Sold COO ***************************** Bought APCC ****************************** American Power Conversn (APCC) Net buy price in managed accounts(*)... $21.04 Yesterday's close (Nov 03)............. $21.21 Net change (based on net buy price).... -$0.17 Today's volume as of 12:42pm ET........ 2.0 million ($42.0 million) Average daily volume................... 1.5 million ($32.2 million) This year's earnings-per-share......... $0.83 (est) Next year's earnings-per-share......... $0.96 (est) P/E using next year's earnings......... 21.9 (est) Earnings growth rate, next 5 years..... 15.0% per year (est) (*) The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. American Power Conversion (www.apcc.com) develops and markets power protection and management solutions for computer, communications and electronic applications. Here's why I bought this stock: + News: On Thu Oct 30 after the close, the company announced results for the quarter ended Sep 30. Operating earnings came in at 26c per diluted share (vs last year 21c and First Call 21c). Revenue was up 17% to $393.7 million. + A "true surprise"(*): Prior to the news, the stock was trading in the low- to middle-range of a 10-week trading range. Then, on Fri Oct 31, the stock soared $2.39 to $20.29 on extremely heavy volume of 7.9 million shares. (Average daily volume is about 1.6 million.) (*) "True surprise" is my term to describe a company news item that ignites heavy buying and that was not preceded by a short-term runup in the stock price (i.e. not preceded by rumor). + Breakout: Looking at an intermediate-term chart, we see that Fri Oct 31 was a breakout from a 10-week trading range. Looking at a longer-term chart, we see that it is also a breakout from a 33-month trading range. + Accelerating sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +6%, +4%, +8%, and, just announced, +17%. + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 02 vs Dec 01: 23c vs 15c Mar 03 vs Mar 02: 15c vs 11c Jun 03 vs Jun 02: 17c vs 15c Sep 03 vs Sep 02: 26c vs 21c + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2003 is 83c, up from 76c 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2004 is 96c, up from 90c 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 22 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 15%, the stock is moderately priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least a penny ahead of estimates in three of the past four quarters (including the just-reported quarter cited above). + The company's industry group ("Electrical Equipment") has risen in relative strength over the past six months, according to Investor's Business Daily. ******************************* Sold COO ******************************* Cooper Companies Inc (COO) Net sell price in managed accounts(*).... $43.18 Date(s) bought........................... Oct 14 2003 Net buy price in managed accounts(*)..... $42.01 Holding period........................... 3.0 weeks Gain/loss in managed accounts............ +2.8% (after commissions) (*) The net buy (sell) price is the total net cost (proceeds) after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. After a good 6-day run, the stock was selling off slightly this morning. It may well be just a minor pause, but, because the Mon Nov 3 peak corresponds to the stock's early September peak, this just might be the start of a bearish double-top chart pattern. *********************** Subscription Information *********************** Welcome to The Deen's List(TM), a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. **************************** Privacy Policy **************************** Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. ************************ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS ************************* * All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. * Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. * The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. ************************************************************************ Ken Deen Deen Capital Management, Inc. PO Box 30925 Santa Barbara, CA 93130 (805) 682-1870 deenslist@deencapital.com Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.