The Deen's List(TM) A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com) Vol.1 #41 Tuesday October 28 2003 9:49am ET Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market stance: BULLISH (since Oct 3 2003) ***************************** Bought AMKR ****************************** Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR) Net buy price in managed accounts(*)... $18.08 Yesterday's close (Oct 27)............. $16.19 Net change (based on net buy price).... +$1.89 Today's volume as of 3:59pm ET ........ 290,550 ($5.3 million) Average daily volume................... 1.3 million ($22.6 million) This year's earnings-per-share......... -$0.27 (est) Next year's earnings-per-share......... $0.61 (est) P/E using next year's earnings......... 29.8 (est) Earnings growth rate, next 5 years..... 20.0% per year (est) (*) The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Amkor Technology Inc. (www.amkor.com) is the world's largest independent provider of semiconductor packaging and test services. Here's why I bought this stock: + News: On Mon Oct 27 after the close, the company announced results for the quarter ended Sep 30. Earnings came in at 9c per diluted share (vs last year's 36c loss and the First Call consensus 1c). Revenue was up 8% to $423.8 million (First Call estimate $416 million). Excluding items, earnings were about 4c. + News: The company said (and other news I have seen supports this claim) that "the semiconductor assembly and test industry is on the cusp of a period of sustained growth". + A "true surprise"(*): Prior to the news, the stock was trading in the middle of a 3-month trading range. Then, Tuesday morning Oct 28, the stock was up sharply on very heavy volume. (*) "True surprise" is my term to describe a company news item that ignites heavy buying and that was not preceded by a short-term runup in the stock price (i.e. not preceded by rumor). + Near-Breakout: As I write this Tuesday morning, the stock is close to breaking out of that trading range. A close above $18.50 would be a breakout. + Recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +21%, +19%, +8%, and, as cited above, +8%. + Future sales growth looks even stronger: Next year's sales are expected to be up some 19%. + Re-emergence into profitability after 3 years of losses: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 02 vs Dec 01: (15c) vs (67c) Mar 03 vs Mar 02: (24c) vs (58c) Jun 03 vs Jun 02: (12c) vs (53c) Sep 03 vs Sep 02: 4c vs (36c) + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2003 is (27c), up from (29c) 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2004 is 61c, up from 53c 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 30 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 20%, the stock is attractively priced. Note that higher P/E ratios are to be expected for companies which are just crossing over into profitability. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least 6c ahead of estimates in four of the past five quarters. + The company's industry group ("Elec - Semiconductor Mfg") has risen in relative strength over the past six months, according to Investor's Business Daily. It is now ranked #8 out of 197 groups. *********************** Subscription Information *********************** Welcome to The Deen's List(TM), a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. **************************** Privacy Policy **************************** Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. ************************ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS ************************* * All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. * Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. * The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. ************************************************************************ Ken Deen Deen Capital Management, Inc. PO Box 30925 Santa Barbara, CA 93130 (805) 682-1870 deenslist@deencapital.com Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.