The Deen's List(TM)
A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. (www.deencapital.com)
Vol.1 #30           Tuesday October 21 2003           12:12pm ET

Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter.

Market stance: BULLISH (since Oct 3 2003)

***************************** Bought JDAS ******************************

Jda Software Group Inc (JDAS)

Net buy price in managed accounts(*)... $21.30
Yesterday's close (Oct 20)............. $17.48
Net change (based on net buy price).... +$3.82
Today's volume as of 11:43am ET........ 3.1 million ($65.8 million)
Average daily volume................... 315,400 ($6.7 million)
This year's earnings-per-share......... $0.27 (est)
Next year's earnings-per-share......... $0.51 (est)
P/E using next year's earnings......... 41.8 (est)
Earnings growth rate, next 5 years..... 12.0% per year (est)

(*) The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions
for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares.

On Tue Oct 21, I bought JDAS.  JDA Software (www.jda.com) makes retail
information products for tracking inventory.

Here's why I bought this stock:

+ News:  On Mon Oct 20 after the close, the company announced results
for the quarter ended Sep 30 which blew away estimates.  Earnings came
in at 14c per diluted share (excluding goodwill amortization and
relocation costs, vs last year 7c and First Call 7c).  Revenue was up
17% to $58.0 million (First Call estimate $50 million).

+ Breakout:  Today, Tue Oct 21, the stock is breaking out of a 7-week
trading range on enormous volume.  As I write this mid-day Tuesday,
volume is already 10x the daily average.

+ Return to positive sales growth:  Here are the quarterly year-to-year
sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order:
-5%, -15%, -30%, and, just announced, +17%.

+ Return to positive earnings-per-share growth:  Here are the quarterly
EPS figures for the last eight quarters:
Dec 02 vs Dec 01: 11c vs 20c
Mar 03 vs Mar 02: (2c) vs 20c
Jun 03 vs Jun 02: 9c vs 18c
Sep 03 vs Sep 02: 14c vs 7c

+ Rising estimates:  According to recent data from First Call, the
consensus earnings estimate for 2003 is 27c, up from 19c 90 days ago;
and the consensus estimate for 2004 is 51c, up from 44c 90 days ago.

+ Next year's earnings estimate, 51c, is 89% above this year's estimate,
27c.

+ History of earnings surprises:  This company has reported earnings at
least a penny ahead of estimates in each of the past five quarters
(including the just-reported quarter cited above).

+ The company's industry group ("Computer Software - Enterprise") is a
market leader.  It is ranked 18th out of 197 industry groups tracked by
Investor's Business Daily for six-month price performance.

Then there's this negative consideration:

- Valuation:  At 42 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected
5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 12%, the stock appears pricey.
However, this is based on analyst projections, and as we have just
learned, analysts grossly underestimated the quarter just ended.  They
may well also be wrong about the company's growth prospects.

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************************ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS *************************

* All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of
risk.  It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's
List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be
profitable.

* Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

* The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed
to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or
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************************************************************************

Ken Deen
Deen Capital Management, Inc.
PO Box 30925
Santa Barbara, CA 93130
(805) 682-1870
deenslist@deencapital.com

Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.