The Deen's List(TM) A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. Vol.1 #23 Wednesday October 15 2003 12:02pm ET Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market stance: BULLISH (since Oct 3 2003) ****************************** Bought APH ****************************** Amphenol Corp (APH) Net buy price in managed accounts(*)... $58.55 Yesterday's close (Oct 14)............. $54.90 Net change (based on avg buy price).... +$3.65 Today's volume as of 11:20am ET........ 457,400 ($26.8 million) Average daily volume................... 394,200 ($23.1 million) This year's earnings-per-share......... $2.38 (est) Next year's earnings-per-share......... $2.78 (est) P/E using next year's earnings......... 21.1 (est) Earnings growth rate, next 5 years..... 18.0% per year (est) (*) The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Amphenol Corp. (www.amphenol.com) manufactures electrical, electronic and fiber optic connectors, interconnect systems and flat-ribbon cable. Here's why I bought this stock: + News: On Wed Oct 15, the company announced better-than-expected sales and earnings for the third quarter ended Sep 30. Earnings came in at 64c per diluted share (vs last year 48c and First Call 61c). Revenue was up 17.4% to $314.8 million (First Call estimate $304 million). The company also raised its guidance for the fourth quarter and full year. + A "true surprise"(*): Prior to the news, the stock was trading near the middle of a 3-month trading range. Then, as soon as the news hit the wires, the stock soared on heavy volume. (*) "True surprise" is my term to describe a company news item that ignites heavy buying and that was not preceded by a short-term runup in the stock price (i.e. not preceded by rumor). + Breakout: The price movement on Oct 15 represents a breakout from a 3-month trading range. + Accelerating sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +3%, +9%, +13%, and, just announced, +17.4%. + Excellent recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Dec 02 vs Dec 01: 52c vs 45c Mar 03 vs Mar 02: 54c vs 40c Jun 03 vs Jun 02: 60c vs 46c Sep 03 vs Sep 02: 64c vs 48c + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for 2003 is $2.38, up from $2.25 90 days ago; and the consensus estimate for 2004 is $2.78, up from $2.60 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 21 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 18%, the stock is moderately priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least a penny ahead of estimates in each of the past four quarters (including the just-reported quarter cited above). + The company's industry group ("Elec - Components / Connectors") has risen in relative strength over the past six months, according to Investor's Business Daily. *********************** Subscription Information *********************** Welcome to The Deen's List(TM), a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. **************************** Privacy Policy **************************** Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. ************************ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS ************************* * All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. * Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. * The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. ************************************************************************ Ken Deen Deen Capital Management, Inc. PO Box 30925 Santa Barbara, CA 93130 (805) 682-1870 deenslist@deencapital.com Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.