The Deen's List(TM) A service of Deen Capital Management, Inc. Vol.1 #20 Monday October 13 2003 1:11pm ET Please read carefully our disclaimers at the end of this newsletter. Market stance: BULLISH (since Oct 3 2003) ****************************** Bought TSA ****************************** Sports Authority Inc The (TSA) Net buy price in managed accounts(*)... $37.74 Yesterday's close (Oct 10)............. $35.00 Net change (based on avg buy price).... +$2.74 Today's volume as of 12:31pm ET........ 770,100 ($29.1 million) Average daily volume................... 278,100 ($10.5 million) This year's earnings-per-share......... $1.88 (est) Next year's earnings-per-share......... $2.51 (est) P/E using next year's earnings......... 15.0 (est) Earnings growth rate, next 5 years..... 17.5% per year (est) (*) The "Net buy price" is the total net purchase cost after commissions for all managed accounts divided by the total number of shares. Sports Authority (www.thesportsauthority.com) is a sporting goods retailer in the western U.S. The Company operates stores under the name Gart Bros. Sporting Goods, Sportsmart, and Oshman's Sporting Goods. Here's why I bought this stock: + News: This morning before the open, the company announced that it expects to earn 13c to 15c per share, excluding costs of the recent merger with Gart Sports. That's far better than the First Call consensus of 4c, and also compares favorably with last year's 11c. The Company also indicated that it expects to report earnings for the fiscal year ending Jan 04 of $1.98 to $2.03, excluding merger costs. + Enthusiastic market reaction: As I write this mid-day on Monday, the stock is up about $2.70 on 770,000 shares. That's very heavy volume for a stock with a daily average of about 278.000 shares. + The stock is attempting to break out of an 18-month trading range. The stock's previous all-time closing high was $37.75 on Apr 16 2002. + Rising estimates: According to recent data from First Call, the consensus earnings estimate for FY 04 (Jan) is $1.88, down from $1.95 90 days ago (but this is superceded by the Company's forecast cited above of $1.98 to $2.03); and the consensus estimate for FY 05 is $2.51, up from $2.26 90 days ago. + Valuation: At 15 times next year's estimated earnings and a projected 5-year annualized earnings growth rate of 17.5%, the stock is attractively priced. + History of earnings surprises: This company has reported earnings at least a penny ahead of estimates in each of the past four quarters. The above items were so compelling that I chose to buy the stock in spite of these negative considerations: - Modest recent earnings-per-share growth: Here are the quarterly EPS figures for the last eight quarters: Oct 02 vs Oct 01: 11c vs 3c Jan 03 vs Jan 02: $1.03 vs 95c Apr 03 vs Apr 02: 18c vs 22c Jul 03 vs Jul 02: 50c vs 48c - Weak recent sales growth: Here are the quarterly year-to-year sales growth rates from the last four quarters, in chronological order: +4%, 0%, -7%, and, most recently, for the quarter ended Jul 2003, +2%. - The company's industry group ("Retail - Leisure Products") has fallen in relative strength over the past six months, according to Investor's Business Daily. - The stock price has run up in price prior to the news. For this reason, I bought only a small position. *********************** Subscription Information *********************** Welcome to The Deen's List(TM), a new e-mail stock newsletter from Deen Capital Management, Inc. My intention is to inform you as quickly as is practical regarding my stock market moves. When I buy or sell a stock, first I take care of client accounts, then I buy/sell for my personal account(s), and then, third, I send out this newsletter. Your feedback is welcome. Send e-mail to deenslist@deencapital.com. To subscribe or unsubscribe, include the word "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" in the Subject line. This newsletter is free to managed account clients. For a limited time, it is also free to all interested parties. **************************** Privacy Policy **************************** Your personal information, including your e-mail address, will be held in confidence by Deen Capital Management, Inc. We will not share it with or sell it to others. ************************ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS ************************* * All stocks discussed in The Deen's List(TM) involve a high degree of risk. It should not be assumed that any stock discussed in The Deen's List(TM) or purchased by Deen Capital Management, Inc. will be profitable. * Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. * The information contained herein has been compiled from sources deemed to be reliable; however, we are not responsible for its accuracy or completeness. ************************************************************************ Ken Deen Deen Capital Management, Inc. PO Box 30925 Santa Barbara, CA 93130 (805) 682-1870 deenslist@deencapital.com Copyright (C) 2003 Deen Capital Management, Inc.